Editor's note: Gu Xuewu is the chair of political science and international relations at the University of Bonn. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN. 9月26日德国联邦议会大选之后，默克尔的政府将立即成为看守政府，直到新政府成立。根据德国的惯例，这个过渡期不会超过三个月。圣诞节之前，世界会见证一位新人入主德国总理府。After Germany's federal parliamentary elections on September 26, the Merkel government will remain in office in a caretaker role until a new cabinet is sworn in. As the country's past elections show, the transition normally takes up to three months. It's likely that the world will see a new German chancellor take residence at the Bundeskanzleramt before Christmas. 这意味着这位铁娘子16年的总理生涯将正式划上句号，影响了德国和欧洲政坛乃至世界格局的默克尔时代终结。This will conclude the iron lady's 16-year career as the German chancellor and put an end to the Merkel era that has influenced Germany's and Europe's political landscapes, as well as the world order. 一个时代的终结，并不意味着这个时代影响的终结。默克尔留下的政治遗产将会在很长一段时间内直接或间接地影响德国和欧洲政策的走向。习惯了默克尔执政风格、政策重点和合作伙伴的德国人、欧洲人以及世界上关心德国与欧洲事务的人们都会自觉不自觉地把默克尔当作一个参照系来衡量未来德国新政府的表现。But while an era comes to its end, its influence does not. Merkel's political legacy will for a long time carry direct or indirect weight in policy-making in Germany and Europe as a whole. Germans, other Europeans and those outside the continent who closely follow German and European affairs will unconsciously take Merkel as a benchmark to gauge the performance of her successor as they are all but too familiar with her governing style, policy priorities and partners. 无论是把默克尔当作学习的榜样还是当作批评的对象，一个没有默克尔的默克尔时代可能还会潜移默化地延续一段时间，直至新的挑战和危机迫使人们忘掉她为止。A role model to emulate or a subject of criticism, whichever she is taken for, the Merkel era will linger on without her until new challenges and crises crowd her name out of people's memory. 默克尔给德国、欧洲和世界留下了一笔什么样的政治遗产？So what exactly is Merkel's political legacy for Germany, Europe and the world at large? 首先，这位从东德平民科学家成为世界上最有权势的女政治家给欧洲和世界留下一个心态满足的德国社会，这在危机四伏、疫情肆虐、冲突不断的当下是一个不小的奇迹。许多民调结果表明，70%以上的德国人对目前自己的状况和国家的发展表示相当满意或非常满意。First, the East German scientist-turned politician will leave behind her a happy, contented German society. In a world of lurking crises, a raging pandemic and incessant conflicts, this is nothing less than a miracle. A number of polls show that over 70 percent Germans are happy or very happy with their own state of being and their country's development. 这说明，默克尔虽然没有像她的政治导师、人称“德国统一之父”的前总理科尔那样作出什么惊天动地的大事业，但她细腻的执政方式和敏锐的政策设计带领大家平稳地渡过了一个又一个危机，造就了一个相对稳定、富裕和满足的德国社会。That is, although Merkel is not known for any grand seismic project as was Helmut Kohl, her political mentor, the architect of German reunification and former German chancellor, she has led the country out of one crisis after another with her nuanced leadership style and shrewd policy design, making Germany a relatively stable, affluent and happy country. 老百姓钱袋子里的财富没有缩水，国家在欧洲和世界上的地位不降反升，失业率从2005年上台时的13%降到今天的6%左右，出口强劲不衰，这些都是德国人对她表示满意的原因。她的接班人担子可不轻，要想在新冠疫情还远远没有过去的年代继续使德国人满意，并不容易。新总理有幸可以吃默克尔的老本，但绝无掉以轻心的资本。Under her chancellorship, average Germans have seen their personal wealth grow, the country's regional and international standings ascend, the unemployment rate drop from 13 percent at the beginning of Merkel's time in office in 2005 to the current 6 percent, and exports stay robust. With all these being part of the reason behind her great popularity among the public, her successor will be facing a daunting task to keep the satisfaction level high at a time when the end of the pandemic is still out of sight. The new chancellor may be lucky enough to live off what Merkel has achieved, but he or she cannot afford to just relax. 其次，默克尔给欧洲留下了一个稳定器。德国虽然不是什么定海神针，但有一个稳定富裕殷实且自我感觉良好的德国存在，欧洲不会走向民粹主义的极端，不会使欧洲的统一进程出现戏剧性的反转或倒退，也不会走向分裂。Second, Merkel's Germany is a stabilizer for Europe. Although not the ultimate determinant, a stable, affluent and contented Germany can help keep Europe from moving further down the populist path, prevent a dramatic reverse or backsliding of European integration, and hold the continent together. 默克尔依托德国稳定的实力，在英国脱欧问题上表现出来的果断和强硬，提升了英国脱欧的代价，但同时也达到了以一儆百、杀鸡儆猴的效应。Leveraging Germany's consistent influential power, Merkel has taken a hard-line stance on Brexit, raising the stake for Britain's split from the European Union while deterring others from making similar moves. 英国“政治脱欧，经济留欧”幻想破灭，估计从此再不会有对欧盟不满意的成员国威胁要“脱欧”。即使一直与布鲁塞尔闹矛盾的匈牙利总理欧尔班也放下了身段，说欧盟给了我们生存的市场和空间，匈牙利是欧盟统一大业的坚定支持者，即使欧盟以后确实出现困难，匈牙利也一定是坚持到最后的欧盟成员。As Britain's hope to politically leave the EU yet economically remain vanished into thin air, disgruntled voices in other EU member states threatening to follow suit died down. Even Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-time critic of Brussels, softened his tone, saying that the EU had provided markets and space for Hungary's survival, and that as an adamant supporter of European integration, the country would stay within the Union until the last minute and even during difficult times. 另外，默克尔给世界留下了一个大国冲突的缓冲器。柏林从默克尔那里获得的大国外交平衡术估计会保持一定的惯性。默克尔不仅善于在价值观和利益之间寻求平衡，而且在处理与美国、中国和俄罗斯这三个大国之间微妙的关系上非常娴熟。Third, Merkel's balancing tactics in great power diplomacy, which have served as a buffer for great power conflict, are likely to remain influential in Berlin. Merkel is an expert not only in striking a balance between different values and interests, but also in handling Germany's delicate relationships with the U.S., China and Russia. 她敢于顶住美国的压力签订中欧全面投资协定，敢于为俄罗斯-德国北溪2号天然气管道项目保驾护航，甚至不惜为此承担美德关系恶化的风险，也敢于不顾北京劝告，坚持派德国海军军舰“巴伐利亚号”前往亚太地区航行，她更敢于直面抨击俄罗斯在乌克兰的所作所为，拒绝放松对莫斯科的制裁。She has shown great courage by signing the EU – China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment under enormous pressure from the U.S., pushing ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running from Russia to Germany at the risk of a souring the German-U.S. relationship, setting the "Bayern" naval warship on a voyage to the Indo-Pacific despite warnings from Beijing; and refusing to ease sanctions against Russia for the latter's actions in Ukraine. 令人印象深刻的是，北京、莫斯科和华盛顿在对她颇有微词的同时，都把她视为可信赖的合作伙伴。究其原因，可能与默克尔特有的外交风格有关。她注重听取对方的基本诉求，不刺激对方的神经，注重外交出击分寸的拿捏，避免把对方逼到绝境；需要对方配合时坦诚相待，恳请支持；“秘密外交”好像不是这位杰出女性的首选，推心置腹、远离说教似乎是她获得对手尊敬的法宝。One would be impressed by the fact that while Beijing, Moscow and Washington have all had disagreements with Merkel, they still see her as a reliable partner. This might be attributable to her diplomatic style. Merkel is always ready to lend an ear to others' fundamental concerns and avoid ruffling feathers. She knows the timing and tact for diplomatic moves and refrains from cornering others. When needed, she honestly and sincerely requests cooperation. "Secret diplomacy" seems never to be Merkel's first choice and refraining from preaching is likely the key to winning her the respect of rivals. 默克尔退出政坛之后，很多人都会想念她，不仅有她的盟友，而且有她的对手。After stepping down, Merkel will be missed by friends and foes alike.