同异 ｜晚舟已归，中美何去何从？

孟晚舟回归是朝着正确的方向所迈出的重要且积极的一步。但并不会给中美关系带来实质性的改变。美国对华敌意仍存，拜登还在继续施压。这场危机虽已过去，但整体压力仍在。很快，新的危机又会到来。在庆祝之余，我们仍应保持谨慎。

Editor's note: The video column does what the name says – takes note of ideas that may make people uncomfortable. By taking notes and breaking down various opinions, we try to provide an alternative line of thinking that will hopefully generate deeper discussion.

1028 days. That’s how long Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou stayed in Canada. 

1028天。华为首席财务官孟晚舟被困在加拿大整整1028天。

Many see her detention as the start of the decline in the China-U.S. relationship. Over the same 1028 days, it reached the lowest points since establishing diplomatic relations.

很多人将她被拘押看做是中美关系恶化的开端。在这1028天里，两国关系跌至建交以来的最低点。

Now that she’s back, what now? Is everything going to change?

现在，孟晚舟回国了。然后呢？一切会发生改变么？

The first thing that must be said is that Meng's return is a very important, very positive step in the right direction. But, it's not a turning point.

首先，孟晚舟归国是朝着正确的方向所迈出的重要且积极的一步。但这并不会给中美关系带来实质性的改变。

Huawei, 5G, technology are crucial areas of interest and conflicts for China and the United States. The U.S. wanted to make a point: We don’t like what we see with your development, and we will act to change it. Huawei was a symbol for what they disliked. So it was the target. 

华为、5G和科技是中美两国的关键利益领域和冲突焦点。抓捕孟晚舟是美国在告诉中国：我们不喜欢看到你们目前发展状态，我们要出手阻止。华为代表着中国科技的发展，因此成了美国的目标。

Meng's return means that the focus on the target has become less intense. But, that dislike remains the same. 

孟晚舟的归国意味着美国对华为不再像之前那样咄咄逼人。但对华的敌意并未消失。

You are not seeing Joe Biden easing a lot of the restrictions on Chinese companies. Many tariffs are still in place. More investigations are in the works. His Commerce Secretary did express the wish to strengthen business ties, but then in the same interview, she said she views Huawei as a security threat and would continue to block it from getting advanced chips.

拜登并没有取消多少针对中国公司的限制，众多关税项目依然存在，美方开展的调查也越来越多。美国商务部长的确是表示过希望加强两国的商业纽带，但她同时也指出，美国仍将华为视作安全威胁并将继续阻止其获得高端芯片。

A former Clinton administration’s commerce official described it as "…her job is to paper over the decoupling and separation and try to suggest there is a positive path forward."

曾在克林顿政府供职的一位商务官员对拜登的商务部长有着这样的形容“她的工作就是一边掩盖对华脱钩的意图，一边说未来光明灿烂。”

Which is quite true. The Commerce Department is continuing the previous administration's efforts in working with allies to keep advanced tech out of Chinese companies. The Quad meeting in Washington ended with four countries boosting Australia's role in raw mineral exports. 

这个形容的确比较符合实情。美国商务部目前依旧延续着前政府的做法，拉拢盟友一道阻止中国企业发展高科技。在华盛顿举行的四方安全对话最终以四国加强澳大利亚原矿出口划上句点。

Australia is the world's second-biggest supplier of rare earths. China is the first. Talking about challenging a dominating position.

澳大利亚是仅次于中国的全球第二大稀土出口国。四国希望以此动摇中国的主导地位。 

You can see that the thread of all action remains the same: China is a threat, Chinese technology is a threat. But the approaches are different. Donald Trump was more of a single-target hitter. He blackmails Huawei, then the next company or a sector of the Chinese economy, to get something back. 

促使美国采取这些行动的原因只有一个：中国和中国科技发展是威胁。但两届政府的方法各异。特朗普更多是采用逐个打击法，先是威胁华为，然后再瞄准另一家中国企业或某个经济领域，以谋取利益。

Biden's approach is different. He doesn't necessarily single out a particular company or an item. He comprehensively puts pressure. He views you as a threat, then he will use all means – political, economic, social, public opinion – everything to push you. He doesn't just want you not to have those techs. He wants to change your behavior regardless of what you have.

拜登则不同，他不太会单独针对一个公司或者一种商品，而是全面施压。一旦将你视作威胁，他便会动用一切手段，包括政治、经济、社会和公共舆论手段，步步紧逼。他不仅想要你无法拥有技术，还想要彻底改变你的行为，不管你有什么。

So Meng's return, despite being significant progress, is still not enough to sway the entire China-U.S. relationship. It is a cause for celebration but also a time for cautiousness.

因此，尽管孟晚舟归国的意义重大，但不足以改变中美关系的方向。在庆祝之余，我们仍应保持谨慎。

One pressure point is gone, the pressure is not. And soon, it will be applied.

这场危机虽已过去，但整体压力仍在。很快，新的危机又会到来。

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