CGTN时评丨为什么明知战争是坑，还不断给自己挖坑？

Editor's note: The United States has been at war for more than 200 of its 245 years of existence. Between the end of WW2 and 9/11 – barely 50 years – the U.S. initiated 201 conflicts that ravaged 153 countries and regions. "America: War by another name" is a special eight-part series that explores the sinister motivations for its warmongering. Episode 7 is on the price the U.S. has to pay for its own military games.

如果历史的后来者重新回望2021年，有两个故事想必意义特殊：一个是阿富汗之变。盘踞阿富汗长达20年的美军仓促撤退，阿富汗塔利班以迅雷不及掩耳之势重掌政权，全球都亲眼目睹了“一个超级大国首次面对一个背后缺乏大国支持的小国对手的失败”。另一个是孟晚舟回国。在中国政府努力下，这位被加拿大“应美国要求”无理拘押1000多天的华为公司首席财务官，终于返回自己的祖国，也向世界宣示了“没有任何力量能够阻挡中国前进的步伐”。两个令世界惊诧的故事，看起来没有直接关联，但它们都指向数十年来屡屡重演的一幕：美国以一种并不情愿的方式，暂时结束了由自己单方面挑起的“战争”——无论是充满厮杀的军事热战还是包裹着法律外衣的贸易战或科技战，最后留下一个落寞的背影。

If one were to look back on 2021 in 10 years’ time, two events are likely to stand out.

The first is the upheaval in Afghanistan. Having stationed troops in the country for 20 years, the U.S. left in a hurry and the Afghan Taliban swept back to power. The world witnessed the humbling of a superpower by a small group of hardliners. 

The other is Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou's return to China. As a result of the Chinese government's relentless efforts, Meng, who had been arbitrarily detained by Canada "at the request of the U.S." for over 1,000 days, finally returned home. 

The two events, while seemingly independent, point to a reality we have become all too familiar with in the past decade: the U.S. reluctantly pushing the pause button on a war it unilaterally waged, be it a hot war that involved the shedding of blood or a trade or tech war fought ostensibly on legal grounds.  

众人感慨，这是美国单极霸权衰落的征兆，再次证明美国作为唯一超级大国的时代即将结束。而让更多人疑惑的是，二战结束以来，美国先后主导发动了大大小小数十场战争和军事冲突，却从没有获得真正意义上的胜利；然而这并不妨碍它不断挑起新的战争。为什么美国明知战争是坑，还不断给自己挖坑呢？

They signal the fall of America's unipolar hegemony and the end of an era where the U.S. is the only superpower. It's baffling that while the U.S. has never won a real military victory since WWII, it repeatedly stirs up new conflicts. Why does the U.S. keep sliding down the hole of war?

以战兴霸，霸权戳破“童话”

To maintain hegemony

问题的答案之一是，美国原本就是一个生于战、长于战、好于战的国家。作为500年西方资本主义兴衰史中的新贵，美国虽然错过了欧洲强国殖民争霸、建构民族国家的第一课，却在建国之后的200多年里，通过各种形式的战争，不断扩充武装力量的规模和建制，不断扩大国家机器的组织和体量，不断扩张国家治理的范围和疆域，最终补上了国家建设的血腥一课。

Reason one: the U.S. was born out of wars, rose through wars and actively pursues wars. Since its founding, it has increased the size and capacity of its military forces, bolstered the structure and dimensions of the state apparatus, and expanded the scope and boundaries of state governance through different forms of wars. 

而这一过程，也帮助美国从一个邦州合众之国，走向一个区域性霸权国家，并最终成为全球霸主。可以说，战争是美国的强国之刃和霸权之母，没有战争带来的原始积累和扩张冲动，美国无法成就美国。正是对内对外的战争史，写就了美国的建国史和全球扩张史，它不仅塑造着美国的存在方式，也把美国锁定在一个永久战争的自我延续体系之中。以至于美国知名学者罗伯特•卡根反思，美国从来都是一个好战的“危险国家”（Dangerous Nation）；美国前总统吉米•卡特在2019年一次演讲中更是直言：美国是“世界历史上最好战的国家”。

This bloody process of nation-building has accelerated the transformation of the U.S. from a federal republic to a regional hegemon and ultimately, to the only superpower in the world. It is fair to say that wars are at the heart of America's rise to global hegemony. Without the primitive capital accumulation and expansive impulse brought about by wars, the U.S. would not be the country that it is today. 

It is American wars, both internal and external, that have compiled the country's history of nation-building and global expansion. It has not only defined the way the U.S. exists today, but also locked the country in a self-perpetuating system of war, so much so that American scholar Robert Kagan described the U.S. as a bellicose "dangerous nation." Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter put it bluntly in a speech in 2019 that America was "the most warlike nation in the history of the world."

然而，也正是战争和霸权，戳破了美国人精心编织的“童话”，让美国背叛了美国。正如美国密歇根大学法学院教授威廉•诺瓦克（William J. Novak）所言，长期以来，美国精英努力把自己的历史塑造成一个约束权力、 “有限政府”的温柔童话，渲染美国追求自由和民主的光荣故事，却完全无视美国在国内外实施广泛的干涉行动、强制措施与战争的赤裸裸现实。换句话说，美国背离了“小政府”的国家想象，也背离了民主和自由的初心，而成为一个名副其实的战争大国。但它却把美式民主作为普世方案向全球推广，甚至不惜以民主为名，动用武力推翻他国政权，造成无数的人道主义灾难。这反而让世人更加清醒地看到，美国的国家发展和霸权地位恰恰建立在战争而不是别的什么基础上。

It is also wars and hegemony that have betrayed the "fairytale" Americans have so elaborately yarned. As William J. Novak, professor of law at the University of Michigan, said, American elites for a long time have tried to make the history of the country look like a fairytale of checked power and limited government, and a glorious story about freedom and democracy, but in the meantime turned a blind eye to the stark reality of America's interventions, impositions and invasions worldwide. 

In other words, by running in the opposite direction to its national imagination of a small government and its original democratic and liberal pursuits, the U.S. has turned itself into a country always at war. It attempts to export the American-style "democracy" globally as a universal model, and even topples the governments of other countries in the name of democracy, leading to countless humanitarian disasters. This only serves to remind the world of the fact that America's national development and status as a hegemon are built on wars and wars only.

以战争权，权力滑向失控

To gain more power

问题的答案之二是，美国政治已形成一个以战争为驱动的军政集团。美国现实政治权力的运作，在相当程度上依赖于战争状态或紧急状态的延续。只要战争或紧急状态不停，政府采取强制措施就顺理成章，总统甩开美国国会和最高法院的牵制而争夺更大权力，就势不可挡。

Reason two: America's political system is controlled by war-driven military-political interest groups. The operation of de facto political power in the U.S. hinges on the continuation of a state of war or emergency. Such a state justifies any mandatory actions taken by the government, and makes it easier for the president to bypass the Congress and the Supreme Court and exercise power as he wishes.

美国宪法规定总统拥有外交和军事领域的先手权，也享有紧急状态下违反法律的特权。过去百年来，美国政府借助各种危机、战争和紧急状态来扩权，最大的集权者就是美国总统及其军政集团。在此期间，美国国会和法院对总统及其军政集团的配合，远远超过所谓的权力制衡；而美国党派政治的恶斗显然无助于应对“危机”，最后还是要由总统及其军政集团来操作解决，后者的权力也就更为显赫。

The U.S. Constitution bestows the president with dominant power to make diplomatic and military decisions, and the privilege to breach laws under a state of emergency. Over the past century, the U.S. government has been using crises, wars and emergencies as an instrument to gain greater power. The president and military-political interest groups have been the biggest beneficiaries. 

During the process, coordination between Congress and the Supreme Court with the president overpowers checks and balances. Meanwhile, bitter partisan brawls contribute nothing to resolving crises, making the president and his military-political interest groups the ultimate troubleshooters and giving them even more power. 

美国学者小亚瑟•史列辛格（Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.）指出，集军政大权于一身的美国总统已变为“帝王总统”（imperial presidency），这是当今美国最醒目的政治现象。对于这种权力失衡甚至可能失控的风险，越来越多美国人忧心忡忡。2020年美国大选期间，特朗普一度想对伊朗动武，以至于人们担心他会失去理智，以更大的军事行动搏政治前途。这无疑对美国政治敲响了警钟。

American scholar Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. noted that the U.S. president increasingly assumed predominant political and military power, giving rise to a political phenomenon most salient in the country today – the imperial presidency. The potential risk created by such unchecked and unbalanced power is a growing concern for Americans. 

以战牟利，利欲加剧失衡

To seek profits

问题的答案之三是，美国经济被绑上了军工复合体的“超级战车”。20世纪以来，接连不断的对外战争，推动美国军事工业迅猛发展，使美国成为拥有全球最大规模军事装备、最前沿军工技术、最顶尖军工企业的军工大国。规模庞大的军工产业，不仅成为美国经济发展的重要动力——军工产业其上下游产业几乎占据美国GDP的40%，而且养成了一个横跨军、政、资、学各界，动辄左右美国内政外交的庞大利益集团——“军事-工业复合体”。

Reason three: the American economy is tied to the super chariot of the military-industrial complex. Since the beginning of the 20th century, rounds of external wars have made the country a military power with the world's largest-scale equipment, the most advanced technologies and most influential defense contractors. 

The colossal military industry is a primary driving force behind America's economic growth, with its upstream and downstream industries contributing nearly 40 percent to the country's national GDP. This has also facilitated the rise of a gigantic interest group that spans the military, political, capital and academic sectors and often dictates domestic and foreign policies – the military-industrial complex. 

而且战争带来的主要收益，也被以军工复合体为核心的少数大资本攫取。美国独立智库“安全政策改革研究所”发布的阿富汗战争主要受益者名单显示，过去20年洛克希德•马丁、雷神、通用动力、波音以及诺思罗普•格鲁曼等美国五大军工巨头拿到2.02万亿美元。而这只是巨头们近20年来获利的一小部分。据美国布朗大学评估，“9•11”事件后的所有军事行动令美国纳税人花费6.4万亿美元，这些钱被以洛克希德•马丁公司为首的五大军火商用来充盈预算。如此巨额的“烧钱”，代价是牺牲了对本国公共产品的投资，无形中削减了美国人民的公共福利。这种利益分配的失衡怪圈，不会因为民众反战和抗议而终结，反而不断刺激军工资本的牟利欲望，使美国不是深陷战争泥潭，就是在通往战争的路上。

In the meantime, profits generated by wars are grabbed by large corporations. According to independent American think tank Security Policy Reform Institute, the top five American defense contractors, namely Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Boeing and Northrop Grumman, have pocketed $2.02 trillion from the Afghanistan war alone. This is only a small part of their profit over the past two decades. 

Brown University estimated that military operations after the 9/11 attack cost American taxpayers $6.4 trillion. Much of the money went to the top five U.S. defense companies, at the expense of investment in domestic public goods and compromising public welfare for Americans.

Such an unequal distribution of interests will not end as a result of anti-war protests. Instead, it will keep tickling the profit-seeking desire of military-industrial companies, leaving the U.S. either bogged down in the quagmire of war or on the cusp of a new conflict. 

事到如今，好战的美国，虽然赢得了霸权，却输掉了自己，虽然对世人讲童话，却背叛了自己的信条。这意味着美国引以为豪的立国之本被动摇，由此必然搅动美国政治理念与政治现实、社会理想和社会现实的深层矛盾，表现为不同程度的社会危机乃至政治衰败。不仅如此，绑在战车上的美国政治和经济，一旦没有战争的驱动、没有外部矛盾的刺激，将失去政治经济整合的动力，进一步陷入极化政治的泥潭，失去整个国家持久发展的动力。靠战争成全自己，因战争给自己挖坑，这就是美国自己都意想不到的武力游戏的代价。

A belligerent U.S. has won hegemony but lost its sense of self: it can still tell beautiful stories, but it ends up betraying its own values. The foundations of the nation have been shaken. Further conflicts, social crises and even political decline will follow, as reality collides with America's political principles and social ideals.

American politics and economy are now tied to the chariot. This means the absence of wars and external stimulants will demotivate the U.S. from integrating political and economic systems, dragging it further into the morass of political polarization and draining the momentum of sustained national development. This is the price the U.S. has to pay for its own military games, a reality from which there is no exit plan.

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