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直说|美国制裁中国芯片产业招致连锁反应

CGTN CGTN 2022-05-07


Editor's note: Technology competition has become a hot topic in media reports, with Huawei in the center. Why is technology competition under the spotlight?  What does the Huawei case tell us? Philip Chen, a chair professor at South China University of Technology, vice director of Pazhou Lab in Guangdong Province and a member of the Academia Europaea (AE), offers some clues. The views expressed in the video are his own and not necessarily those of CGTN.
编者按:科技竞争已成为媒体报道的热点话题,而华为则是关注的重中之重。为什么科技竞争受到广泛关注?华为事件告诉我们什么?华南理工大学教授、广东省琶洲实验室副主任、欧洲科学院院士陈俊龙向我们分享了他的观点。本视频仅代表专家观点,不代表CGTN观点。

CGTN: As reports have pointed out, science and technology will be a main area of competition between major powers. As countries increase their investments in technology and research, what's your take on the future competition between countries, especially between China and the U.S. in this field?
有报道指出,科技领域竞争将是大国博弈的一个主战场。随着各国加大在科技领域的投入,您如何看待未来各国特别是中美两国在科技领域的竞争?

Philip Chen: China's investment in science and technology now ranks second in the world, slightly behind the U.S., and our investment in scientific research far exceeds that of other countries. But in per capita terms, we invest less than other countries, especially the U.S.
我国现在科技投入力度来讲,现在应该是全世界排在第二的,稍微落后美国。我国投入的科研经费远远超过了其他国家。但是以人均来讲的话,我们投入的经费比其他的(国家)尤其是美国少。

China is a leading player in technology research and also in other areas. Some key technologies, however, were first used in European countries and the U.S., which means they devote more time to the patents and technologies. As such, China is not able to compete in these areas for now. But with more time and investment, we can catch up quickly in terms of expertise.
我国各方面的科研,很多各种技术已经是领先的。但是有一些关键技术因为是在欧洲国家、美国他们先起步的,所以有些的专利,还有技术,他们投入的时间比较长一点。他们拥有一些的工艺技术,我们没办法竞争的。但是假以时日,我们全面的投入以后,我们可以很快地追赶到其他国家的专业技术。

Now a major issue is the impact of U.S. sanctions on China's chip industry. First, as China is a major manufacturing country, the shortage of chips will weigh on many industries related to people's livelihoods, and could even affect the entire industrial chain. That would not only affect China, but the entire world, damaging the international industrial chain. With the sanctions imposed, other countries will also find it hard to sell their products to other parts of the world. So this really pulls the whole world into this problem.
现在就是美国对中国的芯片的制裁的影响非常重要。第一个,中国是一个制造大国,它如果芯片短缺,很多跟民生,到整个工业有关系的产业会因为芯片的短缺,会变成整个的产业链就断掉了,所以说不是只有影响中国,会影响整个国际上的产业链。制裁之后,整个国际上的其他的国家也因为制裁中国造成芯片短缺,造成产品没办法去销售到全世界,全世界都受到这个困境。

CGTN: Chips are vital to technology businesses and even countries. The U.S. cut on chip supplies to Huawei gravely affected Huawei's development. As Chinese companies like Huawei scale up their own research and development of chips, how do you evaluate the future of chips?
芯片对科技企业乃至国家都至关重要,美国对华为的断芯措施极大地影响了华为的发展。随着华为等中国企业加大芯片的自主研发,您如何评价芯片的未来?

Chen: Huawei has its own chips, the Ascend series. It is carrying out the planning of its entire industrial chain, moving forward step by step. This takes time. Other countries have accumulated experience for two or three decades in manufacturing chips. From the most basic lithography machines to specific materials and techniques, it is all integration. None of that can be done in a matter of two or three years.
现在华为本身也有升腾的芯片,它的整个生态产业链都有在布局,也在一步一步往前走。这个需要时间。国外的芯片的制造,很有可能是已经累积的二三十年。它从最基本的这个光刻机,一直到这个材料,一直到这个工艺,这个全部都是集成的。并没有说在两三年就可以做成。

Now I think the main issue is high costs. Making chips involves many failures. It is likely you'll have just one good chip among 100 chips that have been made. So in terms of application, for people's livelihoods, this market is not completely ready to be in full use. It's likely that this technology needs to be improved.
现在我认为最主要的就是,因为这个成本比较高。或者说做成了的这个芯片里面,准确率不高,就很有可能做100个芯片才有一片的这个准确率。所以说在用到民生的应用里面,这个没有办法完全打开。这个技术里面要再提高。

To create a solution to this problem, it will probably be most useful to start from the basic machines. I mentioned above that the lithography machines are a major issue. Now there are only one or two companies that can manufacture lithography machines in the world. If they did not sell to China, China would not be able to do it. So this is the main obstacle.
这方面从工艺里面着手,很有可能可以克服这个困难,还有从基本的这个机器着手。那刚刚我们提到光刻机是一个最主要的问题。现在全世界的光刻机只有一两家在做,它不卖给中国,中国就没办法做。所以这是最主要的问题。

CGTN: Which will become mainstream: hegemony or cooperation? Why?
科技霸权还是科技合作将成为主流?为什么?

Chen: I think that cooperation will be the way forward, because technology requires global cooperation. As I mentioned, whether it's raw materials, basic materials, or machines, no country can do everything alone. Therefore, in terms of the role of technology in innovation, I think we need to cooperate with other countries. Technologies are meant to be shared. You can use my technology and I can use yours.
我是觉得应该科技合作。因为科技这个东西是一个全球合作。我刚刚提的原材料的部分,基础材料的部分,还有基础机器的部分,一个国家是做不出来的。所以说科技在整个创新部分里面来讲的话,还需要科技合作,跟其他的国家科技合作。这个技术是共享的。我的技术你可以用,你的技术我来用。


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