数说评论 | 疫情期间美国贫困率不升反降，这个数据可靠吗？

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic hardship has been felt by many across the globe. The World Bank estimates that in 2020, there were close to 100 million people being pushed into extreme poverty worldwide. 

从新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，全球许多人口就深感经济窘困。据世界银行估算，在2020年，全球约有近1亿人陷入了极度贫困之中。

This, however, is not the case in the United States. Research conducted at Columbia University shows that the poverty rate in the U.S. fell from 11.8 percent in 2019 to 9.1 percent in 2020, and is projected to drop further to 8.5 percent in 2021, the lowest since records began in 1967. 

但是在美国，情况却大相径庭。哥伦比亚大学的研究显示，美国的贫困率从2019年的11.8%，直降到2020年的9.1%，并且在2021年还有可能进一步下探至8.5%。这将是自1967年有记录以来的最低点。

So, what happened? 

所以，到底发生了什么？

According to experts, the biggest credit goes to the U.S. COVID-19 relief, in which the generous stimulus payments, worth billions of dollars, have been offered to more than 90 percent of American people, and the benefits to the poor, at least in the short term, can hardly be dismissed. 

专家表示，这一切都要源于美国的新冠纾困政策。其中，数千亿美元的经济纾困金，划拨给了超过90%的美国人。对于穷人来说，从短期上看，无疑是雪中送炭。

But the serious question is, combating poverty is much more than just shoveling money into people’s pockets, not only because it is financially unsustainable, but also because it does little to curb the two main causes of poverty, that are, long-term unemployment and inflation. 

但问题的关键是，与贫困的斗争并不仅仅只是把钱塞进穷人的口袋。因为这不但在财政上不可持续，而且也无法有效地根治贫困的两大根源，即长期失业和物价上涨。

To start with, as you can imagine, putting billions of dollars into people’s pockets does not come without a cost, and no government in the world, no matter how rich, can endure that cost indefinitely. 

首先，可以想象，把数千亿美元塞进人们的口袋，这是一项极其高昂的成本。世界上没有哪一个政府，无论它多么富有，可以无限期地承担这一成本。

Data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows, as of March 2021, the amount of stimulus payments in the U.S. COVID-19 relief had already accumulated to 456 billion dollars, followed by another 411 billion under the American Rescue Plan, bringing the total cost to 867 billion dollars. 

美国财政部的数据显示，截至2021年3月，美国新冠纾困金的发放数额，已经累计达到4560亿美元，再加上“美国援救计划”中的4110亿美元，总额将高达8670亿美元。

This single spending is truly extraordinary, if you compare it to the yearly deficits of U.S. government in normal time, which can rarely surpass that number. Needless to say that the overall package of COVID-19 relief has already pushed the U.S. government’s deficit to a completely unsustainable level. 

这笔单项开支简直令人咋舌，如果你把它与美国正常年份的财政赤字对比，赤字几乎很少超过这个数目。更不用说新冠纾困政策的其它一揽子开支，早就将美国政府的财政赤字推到了不可持续的边缘。

Secondly, although COVID-19 relief can reduce the risk of poverty in the short term, poor people’s livelihoods are not protected until they can secure a job in the long run. 

第二，新冠纾困政策虽然能在短期内降低贫困风险，但只有长期稳定的就业才能真正保护穷人的生计。

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the number of long-term unemployed people in the U.S., which refers to those being out of work for over 6 months, rose rapidly to 4.2 million during the pandemic, and despite a moderate drop in recent months, there are still 2.7 million Americans being trapped in long-term unemployment, as of September 2021.  

美国劳工局数据显示，美国的长期失业人数，即失业超过6个月的人数，在疫情期间一度蹿升到420万人。虽然近几个月来有所下降，但是截至2021年9月，仍然有270万美国人深陷长期失业的泥沼。

To translate the number into a percentage of total unemployment, it shows that more than one third of jobless people in America today are long-term unemployed, compared to only about one in five before the pandemic, which is not a good sign for long-term poverty reduction in the U. S.

如果将这个绝对数值转换成百分比，也就是说在今天的美国，每三个失业人口中就有一个是长期失业，而这个比例在疫情前是五分之一。这对美国的长期减贫来说，并不是一个好兆头。

Thirdly, expansionary fiscal policies, such as COVID-19 relief, are also likely to contribute to the rising inflation in the future, which could be bad news to poor Americans as well. 

第三，扩张性的财政政策，例如新冠纾困政策，很可能推高未来的通货膨胀。对美国的穷人来说，这无异于又是雪上加霜。

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. has surged rapidly since March 2021, which was coinciding with the launch of American Rescue Plan in the same month. Food inflation, in particular, had even increased in the beginning of COVID-19 outbreak and the impact to the poor was tremendous. 

根据美国劳工局的数据，自2021年3月以来，美国的通货膨胀率飞速上涨，在时间上恰好与“美国援救计划”的实施相重合。其中，食品价格的上涨，更是早在疫情初期便开始发酵。对穷人来说，冲击尤为巨大。

Take food bank as an example. Data estimated by the U.S. food charity, Feeding America, suggests that in 2020, more than 60 million Americans had turned to food banks, which is a 55 percent increase from the previous year, resulting in totally six billion meals being distributed to hungry people all over the country. 

以食品银行为例，根据美国食品慈善机构“喂饱美国”的估计，在2020年  有超过6000万美国人涌入食品银行，较上一年增长55%。由此，总计60亿份餐被分送给了遍布于美国各地的饥肠辘辘之人。

This illustrates that, although the statistical poverty rate in the U.S. is declining with the money shoveled into Americans’ hands, the actual livelihoods of the poor are not rising, instead, diving. 

这也说明了，虽然统计学上美国的贫困率在下降——因为有新冠纾困金交到美国人手中——但实际上，美国穷人的生计并未改善，反而更加恶化。

The truth is, poverty is a complex issue that needs comprehensive solutions. From managing the deficit, to ending long-term unemployment and stabilizing the prices of food and other essentials, the U.S. government has obviously a lot more to do, if it is really serious to protect the long-term interests of poor people in America. 

事实是，贫困是一项复杂的问题，需要综合的解决方案。从控制财政赤字，到消灭长期失业，再到稳定食品等生活必需品的价格，美国政府还有许多事情要做，如果它是真正以保护穷人的长远利益为着眼点的话。

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