观察家 | 为什么佩洛西窜访台湾会引发中方强烈反制？

I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and what I'm watching is what everyone is watching: United States Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's visit to  Taiwan, and the Chinese mainland's whole-of-government, indeed whole-of-society's reaction and response. 

我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩，我正在关注的也是大家都在关注的，是美国国会众议院议长南希·佩洛西窜访台湾以及中国大陆各政府部门和社会各界的反应及反制措施。

Everyone knows the obvious facts. Pelosi is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan in 25 years — a high-profile visit of symbolism and flourish — thus giving Taiwan, as the Chinese mainland sees it, tacit encouragement of quasi-independence, which the mainland vigorously opposes, because Taiwan, China avers, is its sovereign territory and internal affairs. 

事实显而易见，佩洛西是25年来美国访台的最高级别政要。这一富有象征意义的高调窜访，在中国大陆看来就是默许， 鼓励了台湾的准独立。这是中国大陆坚决反对的。因为中方强调台湾（问题）涉及其主权领土，纯属内政。

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs charged: "The United States, for its part, has been attempting to use Taiwan to contain China. It constantly distorts, obscures and hollows out the one-China principle, steps up its official exchanges with Taiwan, and emboldens 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities. These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous. Those who play with fire will perish by it."

中国外交部谴责：美方企图搞“以台制华”，不断歪曲虚化掏空一个中国原则。加强美台官方往来为“台独”分裂活动撑腰打气，这是十分危险的玩火行动，玩火者必自焚”。

Pelosi's own statement asserted that her delegation's visit "no way contradicts longstanding United States policy…," adding, "The United States continues to oppose unilateral efforts to change the status quo."

佩洛西的声明称其代表团的访问 “丝毫不违背美国长期以来的政策……”，还表示 “美国继续反对单方面改变现状的努力”。

A few days earlier, President Joe Biden, a Democrat like Pelosi, publicly disavowed Pelosi's trip, making the remarkable comment that the U.S. military "thinks it [Pelosi's trip] is not a good idea right now" — but, due to the separation of powers in the U.S. government, the U.S. president, as head of the executive branch, could not control a leader of the legislative branch — a rationale that few observers could accept.  In a fascinating twist of U.S. domestic politics, the Republican leadership in Congress praised Pelosi for making the trip, the first time in memory that senior Republicans ever praised Pelosi for anything! Chinese observers could be forgiven for being suspicious.

几天前，和佩洛西同属民主党的总统拜登公然拒绝为佩洛西此行承担责任。还令人咋舌地评论道美国军方认为佩洛西访问台湾不是一个好主意。但是，由于美国是三权分立的制度，美国总统作为行政首脑无法掌控立法机构领导人。这一点几乎没办法说服观察家们。美国国内政治畸变，国会的共和党领导层对佩洛西此行大为赞许。这也是（我）印象中佩洛西第一次得到了共和党高层的认可！中国观察家的不理解也在情理之中。

Some Chinese analysts say that the U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity", in effect for decades and reasonably accepted by both sides, has changed to "strategic chaos". Some American analysts would agree, casting the catalyst as China's increasing national assertiveness and military capabilities, while acknowledging uncertainties and disagreements as to optimum U.S. response.

一些中国分析人士称美国执行了数十年并被双方默许的“战略模糊”政策已经沦为“战略混乱”。一些美国分析人士对此表示赞同，还说这都是由中国日益增强的民族自信和军事实力引发的。同时他们也承认存在的不确定性和分歧点让美国觉得这样做才是最优反应。

Pelosi's trip offered the Chinese government no choice. Taiwan is the reddest of red-lines marking China's core interest. A tsunami of patriotic comments flooded Chinese social media — so much so that prominent sites crashed momentarily. Foreigners may not appreciate the depth of feelings of many Chinese, who view Taiwan as if a lingering sore, an open wound, that reminds them of the painful century of humiliation and oppression by foreign forces. Thus, Taiwan symbolizes patriotism, love of country and national pride, all powerful movers of human emotions. I have witnessed over and over again the symbolic power of Taiwan to galvanize the Chinese social-psych; Chinese from all walks of life — common citizens, intellectuals, military leaders, business leaders — come together on Taiwan.

中国政府无法对佩洛西窜访台湾置若罔闻。台湾是中国核心利益中的核心，是不可逾越的红线和底线。大量的爱国言论如潮水般涌现在中国的社交媒体上，致使主要社交平台一度陷入瘫痪。外国人可能无法理解中国人民强烈的情感。中国人民将台湾视为挥之不去的伤痛，这是个裸露的伤口，提醒他们经受过的百年外国势力压迫的屈辱史。因此，台湾（问题）和爱国主义，祖国至上及民族自尊相联系 ，这些都是最能激发人类情感的力量。我不断见证着台湾所代表的这些含义在中国的社会心理层面激发出的力量。各行各业的中国人民，普通市民，知识分子，军队领袖，商业精英在台湾问题上团结一致。

I can give a personal example. Some years ago, a Chinese friend of mine, who had worked his way up to become a senior investment banker in a major international bank, told me that if there were a war over Taiwan, he would quit his extremely lucrative job and join the army as a recruit.

举个我身边的例子。几年前，我的一位中国朋友，他经过自我奋斗成为一名资深投资银行家，供职于一家大型国际银行。曾和我讲过，如果有一天台湾发生战争，他将辞掉高薪工作，毅然参军入伍。

To maintain creditability, the Chinese government must show substantial pushback, both military and economic, more than they did during the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. The Chinese nation today is significantly stronger; the Chinese people today are significantly better informed.

为了民意，中国政府也必须在军事上和经济上采取反制，力度要超过1996年台海危机时的举措。今天的中华民族愈发强大，中国人民也比以往能够获取更多信息。

Just after Pelosi landed in Taipei, no one deemed it coincidence that China's PLA announced joint-military, live-fire drills to be held at six locations surrounding Taiwan's coastline, near Taiwan's largest ports, interrupting flights and shipping, in effect simulating a blockade of the entire island —and thus demonstrating, at the mainland's discretion, the mainland's absolute control. The PLA stated, "The military operations are a stern deterrent against the recent major escalation of the negative acts by the United States on the Taiwan question, and a serious warning against separatist activities seeking 'Taiwan independence'."

佩洛西降落台北之后，不会有人认为中国人民解放军碰巧就宣布要进行军事演训，实弹射击在环绕台湾本岛的六处海域进行。（有的位置）靠近台湾最大的港口，（相关区域）禁止船只和飞行器进入，形同封锁台湾全岛，由此展示出中国大陆的绝对控制权。中国人民解放军表示，“此次行动是针对美近期在台湾问题上消极举动重大升级采取的严正震慑 ，是对“台独”势力谋“独”行径的严重警告”。

In addition, the Chinese mainland imposed economic costs, halting natural sand exports to Taiwan and suspending some 2000 imports from Taiwan, including citrus, two kinds of fish, and other foods — yet not disturbing Taiwan's central role in global technology manufacturing. 

 此外，中国大陆采取了经济举措，暂停天然砂对台湾地区出口，暂停两千多项台湾商品进口，这包括柑橘类水果， 两种鱼类和其他食品。但台湾在全球技术制造业的中心作用尚未受到影响。

It was clear that the Chinese side was signaling that while they condemn Pelosi's visit in the sternest terms and with the utmost gravity, they are calibrating and do not seek escalation. There will be no war.

显然，中方释放出这样的信号，虽然他们以最严厉的措辞和最严肃的态度谴责佩洛西的窜访，但是中方保持了审慎，并未寻求冲突升级，战争不会爆发。

But Chinese commentators state that these are but the first waves of countermeasures, which will continue, and that China takes the long view, having on its side, moral right and increasing might.

但是中国评论员称这只是第一波反制措施，反制仍将持续。中国会从长计议 ，因为她既占据了道义制高点，也拥有实力上的优势。

I'm keeping Watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

我在持续观察，我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩。

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