Hi,
I am Einar Tangen and this is Reality Check.
As
we look forward to Japan's future role in the emerging world order, we
need to understand Japan's history, and what influenced its longest serving
prime minister.在我们展望日本未来在新的世界秩序中所扮演的角色之前，我们需要先了解日本历史，了解其在任时间最长首相的思想形成。From
a feudal society ruled by competing warlords, Japan was put on its modem
trajectory by US gunboats, which in 1854, forced Japan toopen its economy
to the West. The humiliation led to the restoration of the Emperor in 1868
and the beginning of the Meiji period, which lasted until 1912.美国的坚船利炮将日本从军阀混战的封建社会推上了现代化道路。1854年，美国迫使日本向西方开放经济，此番屈辱导致了1868年日本的“王政复古”，开启明治天皇统治时期，该时期一直持续到1912年。During
this period, Japan rapidly adopted Western political ideas, industrialization,
and modernization. But, as Japan rose, it adopted not only industrialization
and modernization, but
also the colonial ideas, of its western teachers.在这一时期，日本迅速采纳了西方的政治思想，工业化和现代化。然而，随着日本的崛起 ，它不仅积极推动工业化和现代化，还从它的西方“老师”那里汲取了殖民主义思想。Between
the late 1800's till 1945, Japan engaged in a series of armed adventures.
Militarism, based on fascist ideas about Japan's innate racial and
technological superiority, resulted in wars with China, Russia, Korea and
eventually the United States.从19世纪末到1945年，日本进行了一系列的军事冒险活动。日本人笃信自身种族和技术优越性，奉行法西斯主义思想。这种军国主义导致日本发动对中、俄、朝鲜半岛的战争，并最终致使其与美国交战。The
Japanese annexations in China, Russia and Korea, had revealed what life under imperialism
was like.从日本对中、俄和朝鲜半岛的领土吞并可以看出帝国主义统治下的真实情形。Japan
systematically eradicated the language, culture, and identity of any areas
under its control. Schools and universities were forbidden to teach or speak
their native languages.In
Korea, for example, 200,000 Korean historical documents were burned, erasing
the countries intellectual memory. All were told to forget their past and
simply pledge their allegiance and labor to the Emperor.日本系统性地抹去了其占领地区的语言、文化和身份认同。包括大学在内的所有学校被禁止教授或使用自己的母语。以朝鲜为例，20万份朝鲜历史文件被烧毁，国家的集体记忆被抹去，日本殖民者告诉朝鲜人要忘记历史，只需向天皇宣誓效忠并惟命是从。For
7 years after its surrender, Japan was ruled under military occupation, as
general MacArthur plotted his conquest of China and Russia, as a means of
eradicating Socialism and Communism.日本投降后的7年里一直被美军占领和统治，期间麦克阿瑟将军曾策划要征服中国和俄罗斯（苏联），从而彻底铲除社会主义和共产主义。In
1947 the U.S., in essence, forced Japan to adopt a Constitution with
abicameral legislature, headed by the emperor. Unlike Germany, Japan
was not forced to come to terms with its war crimes.1947年，美国其实是强迫日本通过了新宪法，建立起由天皇领导的两院制立法机构。但与德国不同的是，日本没有被迫承认其战争罪行。While
a few Class A war criminals were tried and punished, others like Shinzo Abe's
maternal grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, while imprisoned, were never tried, or
fully punished for the atrocities they committed, instead he, like others, was
released to create the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), an American proxy
against socialism and communism.虽然少数甲级战犯受到了审判和惩罚，但像安倍晋三外祖父岸信介这样的人虽遭监禁，但从未受到审判，也没有为他们犯下的暴行受到应有的惩罚。相反，他和其他人一样最终被释放，并创建了自由民主党，成为美国反对社会主义和共产主义的代理人。The
LDP went on to dominate Japanese politics after WWII until present times. This
has left a bitter legacy in China, Russia and the Koreas, as well as other
Southeast Asian nations who suffered under years of Japanese aggression.自民党持续主导日本政治，从二战后直到现在。这给中，俄（苏联），朝鲜半岛以及那些饱受日本多年侵略之苦的东南亚国家带来了长久的痛苦。A
bitterness magnified as Shinzo Abe and his allies, set about revising history, by
minimizing Japan's actions, rewriting school textbooks to cast Japan as a
benign country who sought only to bring order to its chaotic Asian neighbors.安倍晋三及其同盟者公然篡改历史的行径加剧了这种痛苦。他们粉饰日军的侵略行径，改写学校教科书，将日本描绘成一个为“混乱的”亚洲邻国带来秩序的“良善”国家。Abe's
refusal to fully acknowledge or take responsibility for Japan's past atrocities
remains an issue even today for the comfort women, forced laborers and the
families of those who were killed.安倍晋三拒绝全面承认日本过去的暴行，也拒绝对其承担责任。即使在今天，这一问题对于慰安妇，强迫劳工和遇难者家属来说都仍如鲠在喉。Since
WWII, due to the U.S. Marshal Plan, Japan was able to rapidly rebuild its
economy, but
Japan's economic resurgence was curtailed, when it was forced to sign the Plaza
Accord in 1985 by the United States. Since then, Japan's economy, while number
3 in the world, has moved sideways.自二战以来，受益于美国的马歇尔计划，日本得以迅速重建经济，但日本的经济复苏却受到抑制。因为美国迫使其在1985年签署了《广场协议》，从那时起，日本经济虽然位居世界第三，但却一直龃龉不前。The
brief recitation I have given makes it abundantly clear that Japan's historic
adversary was, and
continues to be, the United States. This has left only two logical choices for
Japan, continue
to be occupied and dominated by the U.S. or find a new path.我所做的简短叙述清楚地表明日本的历史对手过去是美国，现在也仍然是美国。这给日本留下了两个合乎逻辑的选择，要么继续被美国占领和支配，要么另辟蹊径。Shinzo
Abe, grew up heavily influenced by his maternal grandfather, who he saw simply
as a defeated victim of the United States. His dream was to reclaim the honor
of his grandfather and Japan, as an independent nation, by taking control of
its national security, revising its history and then asserting its economic
independence. This meant, logically amending the Constitution, imposed
by the U.S., finding a way to break the economic chains of the Plaza Accord, imposed
by the U.S., and removing U.S. troops from Japanese soil.安倍晋三在成长过程中深受其外祖父的影响，他认为外祖父只是日本战败的受害者。他的梦想是夺回其祖辈和日本的荣耀。作为一个独立的国家，自行掌握国家安全，修改历史并主张经济独立，这就意味着要修改美国强加的宪法，找到一种方法打破美国通过《广场协议》给日本戴上的经济枷锁，并让美国从日本本土撤军。Indications
of his desire to accomplish this: In 2017, he scraped the 1% GDP defense
spending cap. In 2018, he proposed that Article 9 of the Constitution, the
"Pacifist Clause" in which Japan renounced war and the maintenance of
"war potential."诸多迹象表明他希望完成这一目标：2017年，他取消了国防开支占GDP比例不超过1%的限制。2018年，他提出修改宪法第九条。该 “和平条款” 规定日本放弃发动战争的权利和放弃保持潜在的战争力量。He
refused to take responsibility for past Japanese atrocities. He visited the
Yasukuni Shrine, where
the memorial tablets of Japanese war criminals had been moved years after Japan's
surrender.He
had school textbooks rewritten to say that Japan was in fact a noble defender
of Asia that
had tried to save its neighbors from the aggressive colonialization of foreign
powers.安倍晋三拒绝为日本过去的暴行承担责任，他参拜了靖国神社，那里供奉着日本战犯的牌位，这些牌位是在日本投降多年后被转移过去的。他篡改教科书，称日本是亚洲的崇高保卫者，曾试图将其邻国从外国列强的殖民侵略活动中拯救出来。So,
while the man was assassinated, his ideas live on. While the new prime minister
Kishida is not known to favor it, all indications are that the LDP Party as a
whole, supports and has the votes now to pass the constitutional amendment to
Article 9, ironically, due mostly to Abe's assassination and the groundswell of
sympathy votes that gave the LDP the representatives in needed in its upper
house.虽然安倍晋三遇刺，但他的思想犹存。尽管现任首相岸田文雄并未公开表态支持安倍的主张，但各种迹象表明，自民党作为一个整体支持且掌握足够的票数能通过对宪法第九条的修正案。讽刺的是，正是因为安倍晋三遇刺才有大量同情票涌入，自民党才获得了在上议院所需的代表席位。As
the emerging multipolar order starts to take form, one thing is clear, Japan
still needs an enemy to justify removing the "Pacifist Clause," the
DPRK alone is not enough, but the U.S.'s desire to contain a rising China, is.随着多极化的新兴世界秩序开始形成，有一点很清楚，日本还需要一个敌人来证明其取消“和平条款”的合理性，只有朝鲜是不够的。由于美国希望遏制中国崛起，因此中国是个不错的选择。But,
one wonders if Washington has thought through the logical implications of
Japan's trajectory. A Japan with a capable military of its own, possibly even
nuclear, will
no longer need a U.S. security umbrella. At which point it is probable that the
world's third largest economy will asks the U.S. troops to leave, while it
pursues its own independent economic future.但是，人们不禁要问美国是否想清楚了日本发展轨迹的内在逻辑。一个拥有强大军队甚至可能拥有核武器的日本将不再需要美国这个保护伞。届时，这个世界第三大经济体很可能会要求美军撤离，并寻求未来的经济独立。The
memory of ancient civilization states are not counted, in decades and hundreds
of years, as
in the west, but in hundreds and thousands of years. In looking at the future
of Asia and the part countries, like Japan, will play in the emerging world
order, you must look to the past to understand their trajectory and the future.文明古国的历史记忆不像西方那样，以几十年，几百年来计算，而是以成百上千年来计算。在展望亚洲的未来以及像日本这样的国家在新兴世界秩序中所扮演的角色时，你必须回顾历史来理解它们的发展轨迹和未来。
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