Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister of the UK, has talked tough on China and many are wondering if the new government will escalate tensions with its third largest trading partner. What does being "tough on China" mean for Truss? And is a hardline policy the right choice?
英国新任首相莉兹·特拉斯发表涉华强硬言论。许多人在想，新一届政府是否会升级英国与其第三大贸易伙伴的紧张关系。在特拉斯眼中，“对华强硬”到底意味着什么？强硬政策真的明智么？The UK listed China as a "systemic competitor" last year. Truss said during the campaign she would reopen the review of China and classify it as “a threat” to national security. 去年，英国将中国列为“系统性竞争对手”。特拉斯在竞选期间表示，她将重启针对中国的审查，并把中国列为“国家安全威胁”。But right now, Ms. Truss has too much on her plate. There’s a UK cost-of-living crisis due to double-digit inflation. Unless energy prices can be tamed, the UK could see inflation as high as 22%, and economists are predicting a recession next year. The UK government is under pressure to act as ordinary folks must soon choose between eating or heating their homes during the upcoming winter. A think tank says the crisis could throw 3 million Britons into poverty. Even worse, some public institutions – such as the National Health Service – are showing signs of breaking down. The public is not happy. 但现在，特拉斯女士有太多要操心的事了。英国的通货膨胀率已突破两位数，生活成本危机加剧。除非能源价格得以抑制，否则英国的通货膨胀率或将高达22%，经济学家预测明年将出现经济衰退。英国政府面临很大压力，冬天即将来临，普通民众必须在吃饭和取暖之间做出选择。一家智库表示，这场危机可能使300万英国人陷入贫困。更糟糕的是，包括英国国家医疗服务体系在内的部分公共机构正出现崩溃迹象。公众怨声载道。But Truss is promising better things to come. Handling the crisis will be top priority as 2024 is the next election. Truss will have to indeed deliver in order to ward off the Labor Party, now ahead in the polls. 2024年英国将举行下一届大选，处理当前危机将是特拉斯的首要任务。特拉斯必须要有所作为，才能战胜目前在民意调查中领先的工党。She must also deal with other thorny issues, such as ties with its largest trading partner the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. There’s also the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which is unlikely to conclude any time soon. And expect the energy crisis to continue into next year. 她还必须处理其他棘手的问题，比如就《北爱尔兰议定书》涉及的分歧与最大的贸易伙伴欧盟进行谈判。此外，俄乌冲突难以很快结束，能源危机预计也将持续到明年。Against such a backdrop, is being tough with China wise? UK-China trade was 93.4 billion pounds in 2021, an increase of 5.5 percent from the previous year. Cheap and quality Chinese products are indispensable during a bad economy. 在这样的背景下，对华强硬是否明智？2021年，英中贸易额为934亿英镑，同比增长5.5%。经济低迷期，物美价廉的中国商品显得不可或缺。Also, some 144,000 Chinese students in the UK contribute some 2.5 billion pounds to the economy, while 880,000 Chinese tourists brought in 1.7 billion in 2019, the year before the pandemic. 此外，约14.4万名中国留学生为英国经济贡献了约25亿英镑。2019年，疫情暴发的前一年，88万名中国游客为英国带去了17亿英镑的收入。A rational voice would argue for reinforcing trade with China, not decreasing it. Will Truss adopt a hawkish China policy, even at the expense of the UK’s interests? 理性的人会主张加强对华贸易，而非减少对华贸易。特拉斯是否会不惜牺牲英国的利益，采取强硬的对华政策呢？The UK's disengagement with Huawei and 5G is a case in point. UK former business and industry minister Sir Vince Cable admitted that the UK banned Huawei "because the Americans told us we have to."英国前商务大臣文斯·凯布尔爵士承认，英国禁止华为“是因为美国人告诉我们必须这样做。”A senior U.S. official reportedly shouted at the UK side for five hours to force them to abandon Huawei.据报道，一名美国高级官员对英方代表大吼大叫了五个小时，迫使他们放弃华为设备。Washington would be content to see allies like the UK adopt a tough stance on China. Will Truss translate campaign rhetoric into real policy and align herself with Washington, even at the expense of British national interests? Can the UK battle multiple rivals simultaneously: inflation, cost-of-living crisis, Ukraine-Russia conflict, the EU and China? This unusual time in the UK requires unusual measures. But that shouldn’t include cutting off your nose to spite your face. 美国政府乐于看到像英国这样的盟友对中国采取强硬立场。特拉斯是否会将竞选言论转化为实际政策，与美方保持立场一致，甚至不惜牺牲英国的国家利益？英国能否同时应付多个难题：通货膨胀、生活成本危机、俄乌冲突、英欧关系以及英中关系？对英国而言，非常时期需要采取非常手段，但千万不要意气用事。推荐阅读：
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