决策者丨后疫情时代全球分裂加剧 团结行动才是出路

编者按：“决策者”（Decision Makers）是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对当今世界重大事件的见解。丽贝卡·玛利亚是亚太经合组织秘书处执行董事。文章仅代表作者观点，而非本台观点。

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Rebecca Fatima Sta Maria is the executive director of APEC Secretariat. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

越来越多的人担心维系现代生活的体系和秩序正在瓦解，生活中广泛的联系、便利条件和物质丰足恐将不复存在。

There are increasing concerns that the systems and order that make contemporary life possible – marked by connection, convenience and abundance – are coming apart. 

观察人士认为，多边主义、贸易和基于规则的秩序正陷入困境，这将削弱我们应对未来挑战的能力，这其中主要包括气候变化所带来的危险影响。人们普遍认为，这背后的主因是中美之间的地缘政治紧张局势造成的。我赞同前一种说法。我们现在必须携手共进、再接再厉。关于后一种说法，我认为世界秩序并不单单取决于美国和中国。当然，这两个国家都发挥着举足轻重的作用，如果其中一国或两个国家同时出现异常，则所有国家都会受到牵连，而我们需要整个人类社会共同努力才能让世界恢复正常。

According to observers, multilateralism, trade, and the rules-based order are in trouble, and that will undermine our ability to face the challenges looming ahead, principal among them the dangerous effects of changing climate. It is also commonly assumed that the main culprit is geopolitical tension between the two of the world's biggest economies, China and the United States. I agree with the first statement. This is the time for us to work together – we must do better. Additionally, I would say the fate of the world order does not rely on the U.S. and China alone. Sure, both play a major part in that if one, or both, sneezes, we all get sick. Nonetheless, it takes the whole community for us to recover.

以新冠肺炎疫情为例，疫情暴发之际，中美关系正处于低谷，此后疫情蔓延成为大流行病，阻碍了最初的合作。因为疫情影响面甚广，所以需要众人共同努力，才能最终将其控制。由中国和美国等21个不同经济体组成的亚太经济合作组织在应对疫情挑战方面的行动值得各方借鉴。

Take the case of COVID-19, which came at a time when relationships were at a nadir, hampering initial cooperation when the virus broke into a pandemic. Because it affected many, it took many, working together, to put it to heel. An example of this is how the challenge was met by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC forum – a group of 21 diverse economies that include China and the U.S. 

疫情暴发之初，许多亚太经合组织官员对保护主义和疫苗民族主义的抬头表示担忧。但尽管如此，各成员经济体依然选择携手共进，召开网络视频会议，承诺支持疫苗的跨境流动，并对基本医疗物资征收低关税。

At the onset of the pandemic, many APEC officials expressed concern that protectionism and vaccine nationalism would prevail. But despite that apprehension member economies came together, meeting virtually, to pledge, among other things, support for facilitating the movement of vaccines across borders and low tariffs for essential medical goods.

他们迅速做出反应，疏通物流堵点，确保基本商品的持续流通。2021年7月，亚太经合组织召开领导人特别会议，进一步强调合作的重要性。会议制定了通关准则，规范通关操作和具体措施，以确保供应链具备快速配送疫苗和相关商品的能力。我们与太平洋两岸的企业合作，共同致力于促进商品和服务流通，特别是那些在此关键时刻最能支持医疗救治和经济发展的商品和服务。

They were quick to react to unclog and ensure the continued flow of essential goods. A special APEC leaders' meeting was called in July 2021 to reinforce the urgency of collaboration. Customs guidelines were set laying out operational and practical measures to ensure supply chains were equipped to speedily carry vaccines and related goods. We worked with the business community, companies on both sides of the Pacific, who likewise committed to helping in the facilitation of the flow of goods and services, especially those that most support health and economic response at this critical time. 

疫情还未消失，但我们已经看到，受地缘政治紧张局势影响，特别是受俄乌冲突影响，各个经济体之间的关系基础出现动摇，而这会影响各领域的互联互通。

The virus is not yet gone, but already we are seeing the relationships among economies, which made connectivity possible slowly falter, again over geopolitical tensions, specifically those surrounding the war in Ukraine.

有足够的文件证据表明，疫情和战争等因素会对经济造成持续影响。根据亚太经合组织政策支持小组最近公布的经济数据，2021年亚太地区经济增速为5.9%，预计2022年增速将放缓至2.5%，而2023年增速将略微回升至2.6%。

There’s enough documentary evidence to account for the continuing impact of the pandemic, as well as of the war and other factors, on the economy. Among APEC member economies, economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.5 percent in 2022, following a 5.9 percent expansion in 2021, and will improve slightly in 2023 to 2.6 percent, according to recent economic data published by the APEC Policy Support Unit.

成员之间的不同意见必须得到尊重。成员之间的争议往往涉及国际社会必须解决的重要问题，只有妥善处理才能维持成员团结。在此过程中，各成员必须直面严峻的现实和挑战。控制疫情影响以及合作推动疫后复苏等重要事项倘若处理得当，则有利于争议双方，但难以消弭的持久性分歧会阻碍上述目标的达成。

Varying views among members must be respected. The issues in contention involve vital questions that must be addressed by the international community if we are to remain together. This typically involves confronting grim realities and challenging the status quo. Continuous disagreement puts a strain on solving vital priorities that benefit those on both sides of the argument, such as work in managing the impact of the pandemic and in working collaboratively towards recovery. 

更重要的是，这种分歧会使过去两年所积累的经验教训付之东流，如果我们不想让危机重演或面对更糟糕的局面，我们就需要将过往的经验运用于实践。

More importantly, it can render useless all the lessons of the past two years, which we will need to put into practice if we do not want a repeat of a similar crisis or worse.

这场疫情让我们进一步认识到，我们不能继续闭门造车、孤军奋战。这场疫情不仅是健康问题，还关乎经济。我们需要汇集多方智慧，在各政府和经济体中，加强卫生部门与贸易部门、海关、企业界以及民间社会团体的合作。

The pandemic has driven home the point that we cannot work in silos. The pandemic is not just a health issue but an economic one as well. We must weave the expertise of the health sector with trade and customs, with business and civil society, among all governments and economies.

我们制定的规则条例需要具备可预测性和灵活性，要对基本商品和人员的流动起到促进作用。我们需要在研发、生产和流通方面加强区域和全球合作。我们需要强化创新，一方面加快新产品和新服务研发，另一方面加强行动的灵活性、适应性，通过创新引领变革。为此我们需要加强对话，促进思想理念的自由流动。这涉及到回顾现行政策，制定指导方针，鼓励监管创新，提炼最佳实践并更广泛地对其进行分享。

We require predictability in our rules and flexibility to facilitate the flow of the essential goods and people. We need enhanced regional and global collaboration in research, manufacturing, and distribution. We must be more innovative – not just in developing new products and services, but in flexibility, adaptability, and change – and for that we need to foster the free flow of dialogue and ideas. This involves reviewing our policies, our guidelines, regulatory innovation, distilling best practices and sharing them more widely.

A view of APEC 2022 Thailand signage on the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok, Thailand, November 6, 2022. /CFP

亚太经合组织等机构在不断推动亚太地区的发展，该地区经济体先后达成《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP），有效强化了相关成员的关系和区域整体韧性。

Developments in the region encouraged by bodies such as APEC, as well as progress in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), inspire "guanxi" (a Chinese concept to explain connections and relations) and contribute to our collective resilience. 

以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》为例，这是首个囊括中国、日本和韩国三大经济体的自由贸易协定。这意味着此次商定的关税自由化安排不仅将改善这些国家出口商品的市场准入，还将为合作伙伴进一步参与全球价值链提供机会，从而打造升级版区域经济一体化模式。

Taking the RCEP for example, it's the first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) involving China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. This means that the tariff liberalization schedules agreed this time will not only enhance market access for goods exported from these countries but also raise the opportunity for the partners to participate more in global value chains. It provides a rising-tide model for regional economic integration. 

所以说，亚太经合组织正在稳步推动实现其长期愿景：通过亚太自由贸易区（FTAAP）实现一体化发展，各经济体有望就“下一代贸易和投资议题”开展探讨与合作，其中包括数字化、包容性增长和可持续性。

As such, APEC is steady in its pursuit of our long-term aspiration for integration through a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), which will give us the opportunity to galvanize our approach to incorporating the "next-generation trade and investment issues," which include digitalization, inclusive growth, and sustainability.

过去几个月，亚太经合组织部长级官员两年来首次在泰国出席线下会议并开展政策对话，这标志着尽管全球地缘政治领域存在分歧和争议，但各经济体依然对合作充满热情，并愿意为之奔走。这些高级别会议涉及与区域复苏密切相关的行业部门，包括贸易、卫生、旅游、林业、食品安全、妇女经济赋权和中小企业发展。

In the past months, APEC minister-level officials have been in meetings and policy dialogues in person in Thailand for the first time in two years, signaling renewed enthusiasm and commitment to cooperation despite differences and disagreements borne by global geopolitics. The high-level gatherings cover all sectors crucial to the region's recovery from trade, health, tourism, forestry, and food security to the economic empowerment of women, and small and medium enterprises. 

今年亚太经合组织会议的主题是“开放、连通和平衡”区域经济，部长级会议以此主题为指导，形成了丰硕的会谈成果，各方认识到经济发展目标不仅应包括经济增长，还必须确保人民福祉、包容性、公平性和可持续性。

The outcomes of discussions among ministers are guided by Thailand's theme this year to Open, Connect and Balance the region's economy, and demonstrate how APEC recognizes that economic goals should include not just economic growth, but must also ensure the well-being of people, inclusion, equity, and sustainability.

今年11月，亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议将在曼谷召开。各方肯定会有分歧，但肯定也会重申致力于实现共同目标。

This November, APEC leaders will meet in Bangkok. There will be differences, but it will be a reaffirmation of the commitment to common goals. 

亚太经合组织在意识形态和经济体规模方面具有多样性，各成员经济体具有平等地位。亚太经合组织并非是一个以规则为导向的论坛，这意味着信任是各方对话的基础。具体而言，各方都相信，每个成员代表以及来自商界、学界等各行各业的参会代表，都致力于通过促进合作、消除分歧来实现更加崇高的目标。

APEC is diverse in terms of both ideology, as well as the size of the economies it brings together as equals. It is not a rules-based forum, which means its most common currency is trust. Specifically, trust in the fact that each member – as well as each representative from the business community, or academia, or anyone brought to the table – is invested in a greater good brought about by cooperation rather than division.

正是出于这种信任，我们同舟共济，共同应对诸多挑战，包括两次重大金融危机，极具破坏性的贸易紧张局势，当然还有新冠肺炎疫情。我们听到许多专家指出，曾经人们习以为常的旧秩序已经遍布裂痕，但时至今日，正是因为有这种信任，多边合作才得以延续。

Trust has seen us over the course of many challenging events, including two major financial crises, the disruptive trade tensions, and of course, the COVID-19 pandemic. We have heard many experts point out cracks in the old comfortable order but, so far because of this trust, multilateral cooperation endures. 

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