就实论事 | 西方叙事无法塑造中国经济

Editor's note: 4%, 5%, or 8%? What GDP growth rate will China have in the coming year? Why do experts from different camps have diverse forecasts? Einar Tangen, our current affair commentator, shares his insights. The commentary reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

编者按：不管2023年的中国经济增长是4%还是8%，作为世界第二大经济体，中国都将继续为全球经济增长提供强劲动力。但人们还是不禁好奇，为什么不同机构和专家对中国经济增长的预测结果会如此迥异？优化疫情防控政策会引发“中国经济崩溃”还是会带来V型反弹？哪些行业和部门发展信心将在来年得到提振？CGTN特约时事评论员艾那•唐根带来他的解读。

Hi, I am Einar Tangen. And this is Reality Check. China's Central Economic Work Conference issued recommendations for 2023. Don't worry about the official sounding name, it's just part of China's economic plumbing system. It takes the Five-Year Plan and basically adjusts it to the realities facing the country, economically and socially. 

大家好，我是艾那·唐根。欢迎收看《就实论事》。中国的中央经济工作会议为2023年经济工作定调。会议名称乍一听很严肃，它只是中国经济治理体系的组成部分。中国制定五年规划，然后根据经济社会发展的实际情况做出调整。

It prepares the groundwork for the annual March Government Work Report, which will have more details about specific policies. This has been the strength of China’s economic success, step by step, consensus-based planning that moves from concepts to goals, to implementation, then evaluation and, as needed, adjustments. 

会议为每年三月的《政府工作报告》奠定基础。届时，报告将包含更多政策细节。这一直是中国经济成功的优势所在，按部就班，凝聚共识，做出规划，明确概念目标，抓好落实，之后评估效果并做出必要调整。

So as we approach the new year, the conference report is a good window to see where things are going, globally and domestically, in the world's most consequential economy. 

新的一年即将到来，会议报告提供了观察中国国内外经济走向的重要窗口，而中国是全球很重要的经济体。

Where are we today? Over the last four years, China has been the target of a trade war, a tech war, a new Cold War, and blamed for a regional conflict in Ukraine. In addition, China and the world have been dealing with a global pandemic, massive debt increases, growing economic inequalities, climate change, rampant inflation and logistics problems due to a combination of the issues above.

我们当今身处何种境地？过去四年里，中国面临外界多重挑战——贸易战、科技战、“新冷战”，甚至要为在乌克兰的地区冲突背锅。此外，中国和世界各国还面临全球疫情、债务高企、经济不平等加剧、气候变化、通胀失控，以及上述因素导致的供应链中断。

It hasn't helped that the U.S. has panicked. The Fed's extreme fiscal and monetary tightening has forced other countries to follow suit, pushing the world towards global economic recession in the name of America First. 

美国仓惶应对，结果却在帮倒忙。美联储实施极端的财政和货币紧缩政策，其他国家被迫跟随加息，全球经济都被置于衰退边缘，（美国政府）还打着“美国优先”的旗号。

Unfortunately, this is the same thinking that puts China at the center of America's negative narrative. China is responsible for everything wrong with the world from the pandemic to America's declining competitiveness, to the conflict in Ukraine, and the global economic decline. In America and the UK in particular, the repeated narrative about China is that it has been on the verge of collapse for the last 25 years. 

遗憾的是，也正是这种思维方式把中国置于美国负面叙事体系的中心。中国要为世界上所有问题负责，无论是疫情，还是美国竞争力下降，抑或是俄乌冲突，还有全球经济衰退。美英两国一直在唱衰中国，过去25年里，它们反复鼓吹中国崩溃论。

While the reality is, over the last 25 years China has become the world's second largest economy, by growing the world's largest middle class and eradicating extreme poverty. 

而现实是，经过25年发展，中国已经成为世界第二大经济体，拥有世界上最大的中产阶级群体，同时消除了极端贫困。

A perfect example of this is: Three weeks ago, the narrative was China was about to collapse because it hadn't opened up. Today, the narrative is, China is about to collapse, because it opened up. Neither reflects the reality that China's pandemic policies have allowed it the luxury of opening its society and economy, when it was safer to do so. 

有一个很好的例子。三周前，外界还在鼓吹中国即将崩溃，因为中国没有实行更宽松的疫情防控。如今，外界依然在唱衰中国，因为中国优化了疫情防控措施。这两种说法都忽视了一个现实——中国的疫情防控政策使其赢得了在更安全的情况下开放社会经济的条件。

The problem for Washington is, China's success is a challenge to the notion that only liberal democratic capitalism is a legitimate social, political and economic model. So, it's not that China is in danger of failing, just there are those who want it to fail. 

美国总是心怀芥蒂，认为中国的成功挑战了传统观点，即只有自由民主资本主义才是合法的社会、政治和经济发展模式。所以，并不是说中国有崩溃的危险，只不过有人希望中国崩溃。

Why? Because they don't want to have to examine their assumptions, or the justifications they used to start wars, interfere in the affairs of other governments, and enrich themselves. 

为何会如此？因为他们不愿反思自己的成见，不愿审视他们用以发动战争、干涉别国内政、谋取私利的借口。

If, for instance, the basis of Western colonial actions over the last 350 years was simply about using, first religion, and then ideology, to obtain wealth and power by force, they would be exposed as nothing more than hypocritical narcissists. 

举个例子，过去350年西方殖民活动的本质仅仅是利用宗教、意识形态和武力攫取财富和权力，他们只不过是些伪善的自恋的家伙。

Why this long preamble before discussing China's 2023 economic outlook? Because what happens in 2023 is connected to what came before. So let's get into the specifics of 2023 and then you may understand the point I am driving at. 

为何要在展望中国2023年经济之前做如此长的铺垫？因为所谓前事不忘，后事之师。下面我们来看看2023年的具体情况，然后你就会明白我的意思。

As I said, China held its annual work conference, where it discussed the policies necessary to implement the current Five-Year Plan goals.

如前所述，中国召开年度经济工作会议，会上讨论了实施“十四五”规划所需的政策。

The highlights of the report were about how to stabilize economic and social growth. On the positive side: The report was clear about encouraging private enterprises, micro, small and medium business entities, real estate, consumption, needed tech development, efficient production, digital economy and a stable Renminbi.

会议报告聚焦于稳定经济和社会发展。会议发出提振信心的信号：会议报告明确鼓励民营企业、中小微企业、房地产、消费，解决“卡脖子”技术问题，提高生产效率，发展数字经济以及稳定人民币汇率。

On the negative side, there was a desire to discourage speculative bets that don't create jobs or economic impact and rein in local government debt.

同时，会议也明确了政府不鼓励无法创造就业或产生经济效益的投机炒作和限制地方政府债务无序扩张。

The tools proposed: using targeted expansionists fiscal, monetary programs and policies. Or in other words, supporting the economy where they think it's needed.

会议提出的政策工具包括采取精准的扩张性财政和货币政策。换言之，要有的放矢地鼓励经济发展。

“We need to encourage and support the private sector economy and private enterprise in terms of policy and public opinion.” That is the statement that was released in the report.

“我们要从政策和舆论上鼓励支持民营经济和民营企业发展壮大。”这是报告中的相关阐述。

The hope is that changes to how China responds to the pandemic will usher in a strong economic V-shaped rebound, which is a priority. As the economic data for November showed retail sales down 5.9%. Industrial production grew but only at 2.2%, less than half of October's growth. Investment in the property sector, which accounts for as much as 30% of China's GDP, plunged by 9.8% in the first 11 months of the year. Property sales by value plummeted by more than 26%. Unemployment rose to 5.7%, a six month high.

政府希望在疫情防控措施优化后，中国经济将迎来强劲的V型反弹。这是当务之急。11月的经济数据显示，社会消费品零售总额同比下降5.9%，（规模上）工业增加值同比仅增长2.2%，环比减半。对于占中国GDP高达30%的房地产行业，其投资总额在今年前11个月下降了9.8%。房地产销售额下降超过26%。失业率升至5.7%，创六个月新高。

Given everyone is working off the same data, you would expect a somewhat close alignment of forecasts, but you would be wrong.

考虑到各家机构拿到的数据都一样，那么它们关于经济增速的预测应该接近。但事实并非如此。

Basically there are three camps. The developed nations and their institutions recently revised their 2023 China growth estimates downward: World Bank down to 4.3%, the IMF down to 4.4%, the Asian Development Bank down to 4.2%. A fairly tight set of economic target groupings.

目前有三大预测阵营。发达国家及其机构最近集体下调2023年中国经济增长预期：世界银行下调至4.3%，国际货币基金组织下调至4.4%，亚洲开发银行下调至4.2%。在这一组，各机构的经济增速预测值相当接近。

Then we have the private sectors' 2023 predictions, all revised upwards: The Economist Intelligence Unit up to 5.2%, Morgan Stanley up to 5.4%, Golman Sachs up to 5.2%, PwC up to between 5% - 6%. All of them cited the faster pace of reopening and continued stimulus measures in the Conference Report.

而私营部门机构则集体上调2023年中国经济增长预期：经济学人智库上调至5.2%，摩根士丹利上调至5.4%，高盛上调至5.2%，普华永道上调至5%到6%。他们都认为中国的放开速度会快于预期，而且会议报告也提到会有持续的刺激措施。

The last group are the usually very conservative Chinese economists who are predicting a major turn around. "The GDP growth rate will reach 8 percent," said Wei Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce. This sentiment was echoed by Jia Kang, former director of the China Academy of Fiscal Sciences, and Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, at a Global Times Annual Conference that was held on December 17.

最后一组是通常会比较保守的中国经济学家，他们预测中国经济将有显著回升。魏建国说“2023年中国经济将以8%的增长领跑全球。”他是中国国际经济交流中心副理事长，商务部原副部长。这个看法得到中国财政科学研究所原所长贾康和北京大学国家发展研究院院长姚洋的认同。他们在12月17日《环球时报》举办的年会上发表了上述观点。

So why the different forecasts? For the World Bank, IMF and ADB, they see the past and the potential problems: worsening U.S.-China relations, U. S. containment efforts. Like the October Biden administration export controls, banning Chinese companies from buying advanced chips containment efforts and chip-making equipment without a license. The restriction of some U.S. citizens or green card holders to be involved in the "development or production" of chips at certain manufacturing facilities in China.

为何预测结果会大相径庭呢？对世界银行、国际货币基金组织和亚洲开发银行而言，它们着眼于过去和潜在的问题——中美关系持续恶化，美国遏制中国发展。比如今年十月拜登政府实施对华出口管制，禁止中国企业未经许可购买先进制程芯片和芯片制造设备，限制某些美国公民或绿卡持有者在中国制造企业参与芯片“开发或生产”。

The Economists Intelligence Unit, Morgan Stanely, Goldman Sachs, and PwC, they see the present: the change in COVID policies and the conference report policy indicators.

经济学人智库、摩根士丹利、高盛和普华永道则着眼于现在：聚焦于疫情防控政策的优化以及中央经济工作会议报告中的政策指示。

The Chinese economists see the future: an opportunity to implement the conference report and get China back on track with its dual circulation strategy, where domestic consumption and manufacturing efficiency drive the economy and attract outside investment.

而中国经济学家则着眼于未来：通过落实经济工作会议精神，中国有望走上“双循环”发展战略正轨，持续拉动内需消费，提高制造业效率，推动经济，吸引外商投资。

Who will be right, only time will tell, but those who look forward tend to accomplish more than those who look at the past or the present.

那么究竟孰对孰错，时间会证明一切。但高瞻远瞩者往往比纠结于过去和当下的人更能取得成功。

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