决策者 | 全球经济与中国：展望新的一年及更远的未来

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for influential leaders to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Steven Alan Barnett is the International Monetary Fund's senior resident representative in China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：《决策者》是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界之事件的见解。作者史蒂文·艾伦·巴奈特是国际货币基金组织驻华代表处首席代表。本文仅代表作者的观点，而非CGTN观点。

Last year was challenging for the global economy. Inflation was too high and growth was too low. Growth in China was also weak amid multiple COVID-19 waves. After a challenging 2022, however, we expect China's growth to rebound strongly and contribute a quarter of global growth. China's rebound is welcome amid slowing global growth. The developments, outlook, and policy challenges for the world and China are elaborated below. 

全球经济去年经历了诸多困境，包括通胀高企、增长低迷等，几波新冠肺炎疫情对中国的经济增长也造成了冲击。但随着充满挑战的2022年变成历史，我们预计中国经济回暖势头强劲，对全球经济增长的贡献率将达到四分之一。在全球经济增长放缓的背景下，中国经济回暖令人期待。本文将详细阐述世界经济和中国经济的发展成果、前景以及相关政策所面临的挑战。

The global economy has not fully recovered from the pandemic. Last year, global GDP was still some 3.5 percent below our pre-pandemic forecast. Rather than making up lost ground, the global economy fell further behind in 2022. We estimate global growth was only 3.4 percent, which is below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8 percent. Two key factors behind this are rising inflation and the slowdown in China. 

全球经济还未从新冠肺炎疫情中完全恢复。去年，全球GDP仍比疫情前的预测低3.5%左右，全球经济不仅没有复苏，而且出现了进一步下滑。我们预估2022年全球经济增长仅为3.4%，低于3.8%的历史（2000-2019年）平均水平。两个关键原因导致了这一情况的出现，即通胀加剧和中国经济增长放缓。

First, rising inflation. Global inflation reached 8.8 percent last year. In response, central banks around the world tightened monetary policy to tame inflation. This is the right policy and is working. Thus, we forecast inflation to steadily fall to 4.3 percent in 2024. 

首先，通胀加剧。去年，全球通胀率达到了8.8%。为此，各国央行纷纷收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。这种做法是正确的，而且也确实发挥着作用。因此，我们预计通胀率将在2024年稳步下降至4.3%。

Tighter monetary policy works, however, by slowing the economy. This is one reason we expect global growth this year to be even worse than last year. Specifically, to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023 before rising modestly to 3.1 percent in 2024. But historical experience is clear: Price stability is a pre-condition for sustainable growth. And, importantly, it is ultimately less costly to bring inflation down sooner rather than later. 

然而，紧缩性的货币政策是通过放慢经济来发挥作用的，这也是为什么我们预计今年全球经济增速会比去年更低的原因。具体来说，今年全球经济增速或将下降至2.9%，2024年会小幅增长至3.1%。但历史经验已经证明，价格稳定是经济可持续增长的前提条件。重要的是，通胀越早得到抑制，所付出的代价就越低。

China's growth story is different. Last year, growth in China slowed as a result of the triple headwinds of COVID-19, struggles in the real estate sector, and slowing external demand. At 3.0 percent, growth in 2022 beat market expectations.

中国的经济增长则不同。去年，在疫情、房地产行业低迷和外需减少的三重冲击下，中国经济增长放缓，但3.0%的增量仍高于市场预期。

In contrast to the global outlook, we expect a sharp rebound in China this year. We forecast growth to rise to 5.2 percent, notwithstanding slower external demand and continued challenges in the real estate sector. The key development is the faster-than-expected change in COVID-19 policies and subsiding COVID-19 waves that are fueling a resumption in economic activity. Uncertainty around the outlook is higher than usual. Key risks relate to COVID-19 and real estate. Regarding real estate, the challenge is to continue to bring the housing market more in balance, while, at the same time, preventing a disorderly adjustment. The latter would require dealing with problems related to financial stress in some developers and the stock of sold but unfinished housing. 

与对世界经济前景的预测不同，我们认为中国经济今年会出现强劲回升。尽管外需增长低迷且房地产业仍面临挑战，我们预计中国经济增长率将达到5.2%，主要原因在于中国及时调整了防疫政策，疫情也在逐渐消退，这为重启经济活动扫清了障碍。但因为一些风险因素的存在，如反复的疫情及低迷的房地产业，中国经济增长的不确定性仍高于往年。就房地产业来说，如何在持续推动住房市场平衡发展的同时避免出现无序调整是关键。为此，我们需要妥善处理两大问题：一是降低一些开发商的财务压力，二是解决已售期房相关的问题。

We also updated our medium-term forecasts for China. We recently published our annual report on China, which covers in detail recent developments, the outlook and policies. In that report, we marked down our medium-term growth forecast for China to just below 4.0 percent. This reflects our assessment of weakening productivity growth amid insufficient growth-enhancing structural reforms. 

我们也调整了对中国经济的中期预期。最近，我们发布了中国经济年度报告，详细阐述了其近期发展情况、增长前景和相关政策。我们认为，中国经济结构性改革力度应进一步加大，生产力提升速度应进一步加快。因此，在报告中，我们将中国经济的中期增长预期下调至略低于4.0%的水平。

The good news is that with comprehensive reforms, higher potential growth is attainable for China. Such reforms include measures to boost productivity, especially through market enhancing reforms that foster private sector development, lifting retirement ages to increase labor supply, and removing local protectionism.

好消息是，随着全面改革的实施，中国有很大的潜力实现更高的经济增长。这些改革包括出台提高生产力的措施，尤其是开展有助于促进私营部门发展的市场改革，延迟退休以增加劳动力供应以及消除地方保护主义等。

China is the world's second largest economy in U.S. dollar terms. With the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) weights that we use to aggregate global GDP, it is already the world's largest economy. With the global economy still struggling to recover from the pandemic, robust growth in China over the medium term would provide a needed and welcome lift to world growth. 

以美元计算，中国是全球第二大经济体。但按照购买力平价权重衡量，中国已经是第一大经济体。中国经济中期内的强劲增长，将为疫情后艰难复苏的全球经济带来急需的动力。

Another needed and welcome lift would come from strengthened international cooperation. The world economy is at a much greater risk of fragmentation that could undo decades of progress from economic integration. This risk must be avoided and replaced with a renewed spirit of international cooperation. In the economic sphere, three priorities for cooperation are trade, debt and climate action. 

另一个急需的动力来自于更加紧密的国际合作。当今世界经济面临较大的分裂风险，这或使几十年来经济一体化所取得的成果化为乌有。我们必须通过增强国际合作来防范这种风险。在经济方面，合作的重点领域包括贸易、债务和气候行动。

Trade, until recently, has been an important engine of growth. It can be again with efforts that roll back distortionary subsidies and trade restrictions imposed in recent years; strengthen the World Trade Organization (WTO), including new market-opening agreements; and, where helpful, conclude plurilateral agreements among subsets of WTO members. In addition, countries should carefully weigh the costs, at home and abroad, of "national security" measures on trade and investment. 

贸易此前一直是经济增长的重要引擎。如果能取消近年来的扭曲性补贴和贸易限制，加强世界贸易组织的作用，签订更多的市场开放协议，并在合适的情况下，让世贸组织成员之间缔结多边协议，那么贸易就可能再次推动经济增长。此外，各国应谨慎权衡以“国家安全”为由实施的贸易和投资措施对本国及他国带来的损失。

On debt, vulnerable countries need the help of the global community. Some 60 percent of low-income countries are in or close to debt distress. Another 25 percent of emerging markets are at high risk and facing default-like borrowing spreads. We have seen progress in this area, including agreement on the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment. Making the process more certain and faster would serve the interest of both creditors and debtors. 

在债务方面，易受影响的国家需要国际社会的帮助。全球大约60%的低收入国家已身陷或即将面临债务困境，另有25%的新兴市场国家处于高风险中，面临违约类借贷利差。在改善这类状况方面，我们已看到了一些进展，例如G20国家已达成“债务处理共同框架”协议。我们应该夯实并进一步推动相关进展，这也符合债权和债务国的利益。

Last but not least, is climate action. Collective action is vital to address the climate crisis. The COP27 agreement to set up a Loss and Damage Fund for the most vulnerable countries shows progress is possible. More is needed to speed the green transition, including countries swiftly implementing creditable mitigation policies, international coordination on carbon pricing or equivalent policies, and global cooperation to build resilience. 

最后是气候行动。国际社会的集体行动对解决气候危机至关重要。《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十七次缔约方大会（COP27）已达成协议，为最易遭受气候影响的国家设立“损失和损害”基金。在加速绿色转型方面，国际社会还需要做更多的工作，包括各国尽快实施切实的减排政策，协调碳定价或相应政策，并开展全球合作以提高抗风险能力。

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