观察家｜“一带一路”倡议10周年：愿景、成就和挑战

I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: China's Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, on its 10th anniversary. Actually, I've been watching the BRI literally from its beginning. I recall September 7, 2013, when President Xi Jinping, standing at a lectern at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, announced China's vision to build a "Silk Road Economic Belt" — over land, across Eurasia, engaging Central Asia and linking with Europe. The next month, addressing the Indonesian Parliament, Xi proposed the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" — over water, China reaching out to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe. I spoke at the first two BRI conferences: 2014, in Urumqi, Xinjiang, "The New Silk Road Economic Belt,"and 2015, in Quanzhou, Fujian,  "The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road."

我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩，以下是我正在关注的：中国“一带一路”倡议提出十周年。实际上，我从该倡议提出之初就一直关注它。我记得，习近平主席于2013年9月7日，在哈萨克斯坦纳扎尔巴耶夫大学的讲台上提出构建“丝绸之路经济带”的倡议。这条陆上丝路贯穿欧亚大陆，途经中亚，连接欧洲。同年10月，习主席在印度尼西亚国会发表演讲，提出“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议。这条海上丝路连接东南亚、中东、非洲和欧洲。我在最早的两届“一带一路”论坛上发表了演讲，分别是 2014年在新疆乌鲁木齐召开的“丝绸之路经济带国际研讨会”和2015年在福建泉州召开的“21世纪海上丝绸之路国际研讨会”。

The BRI has been, increasingly, the centerpiece of China's foreign policy. It leverages China's unequaled experience and competitive advantages in constructing infrastructure: rail, roads, ports, airports, power plants, telecom. Nothing is more important for developing countries than infrastructure. 

“一带一路”越来越成为中国外交政策的核心。该倡议利用了中国在铁路、公路、港口、机场、电站、通信等基建领域无可匹敌的经验和竞争优势。对于发展中国家来说，最重要的莫过于基础设施。

Over the past ten years, China has signed more than 200 BRI cooperation documents with 152 countries and 32 international organizations, covering more than three-quarters of the countries on earth. China has established more than 3,000 cooperation projects, committing and completing, from 2013 to 2022, investments exceeding $1.2 trillion and $800 billion, respectively, accounting for more than half of total foreign projects. Chinese goods flow to more than 300 ports.

过去十年，中国已签订了200多份共建“一带一路”合作文件，涉及152个国家 32个国际组织，覆盖地球上四分之三以上的国家，形成了3000多个合作项目。从2013年到2022年，新签合同额和完成营业额累计分别超过1.2万亿美元和8000亿美元，占对外承包工程总额的比重超过了一半。中国的货物可送达全球300多个港口。

In a recently released white paper, China says that, over the decade, the country "has contributed its strength to building a global community of shared future." And in an authoritative retrospective, the head of the NDRC, which oversees the BRI, wrote that the country "adheres to the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits" and to "the concepts of openness, greenness, and integrity, and aimed at high standards, sustainability, and benefiting people's livelihood." BRI's five aspects: policy communication, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, capital financing, and people-to-people bonding. 

在近期发布的白皮书中，中国表示：过去十年，中国“为构建人类命运共同体贡献中国力量”。并且，在一篇权威性回顾文章中，国家发改委主任（发改委是推进“一带一路”建设的负责部门）写到：中国秉持“共商、共建、共享原则”，“坚持开放、绿色、廉洁理念，以高标准、可持续、惠民生为目标”。“一带一路”倡议覆盖五个方面：政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通。 

Over the 10 years, China has constructed six major international economic corridors: New Eurasian Continental Bridge, formed around the Trans-Eurasian international railway trunk line from China's Jiangsu Province to Rotterdam in the Netherlands; China-Mongolia-Russia; China-Central Asia-West Asia, from China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region via Central Asia to the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula; China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, from Kashgar in Xinjiang, China, to Gwadar Port in Pakistan; Southwest Asia Continental Bridge, or the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor; and China-Indochina from Yunnan Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in southwest China to and through Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Major projects: the just-opened Jakarta-Bandung line, Indonesia's first high-speed railway, branded "Whoosh" (but not without controversy); Hungary-Serbia Railway; China-Laos Railway; and the Piraeus Port in Athens, Greece. The BRI's flagship project are the China-Europe freight trains, with 84 operating routes, reaching 211 cities in 25 European countries, promoting interconnection and enhancing trade all along the routes.

十年来，中国建设了六大国际经济合作走廊，包括新亚欧大陆桥，这是横跨欧亚的国际铁路干线，连接了中国江苏省和荷兰鹿特丹市；包括中蒙俄（经济走廊）；包括中国-中亚-西亚（经济走廊），这条走廊从中国新疆维吾尔自治区，经中亚到波斯湾、地中海和阿拉伯半岛；包括中巴经济走廊，起点在中国的新疆喀什，终点在巴基斯坦瓜达尔港；包括西南亚大陆桥，也就是孟中印缅经济走廊；以及中国-中南半岛（经济走廊），起点在中国西南的云南省和广西壮族自治区，向南连接了越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸、泰国、马来西亚和新加坡。“一带一路”的主要项目包括刚刚开通的雅万高铁，这也是印度尼西亚的第一条高铁，它被命名为“呼呼声”（虽然对该名称存有争议）；匈塞铁路、中老铁路和希腊雅典的比雷埃夫斯港。“一带一路”的旗舰项目是中欧班列，包括84条运行线路，通达欧洲25个国家的211个城市，促进沿途国家互联互通，提升经贸合作水平。

China's BRI is not charity. China says it seeks "win-win," which means that China wins too. China wins via preferential access to vast sources of raw materials (for example, oil); substantial business for its massive, state-owned construction companies; developing new markets for its products; and geopolitical support for contentious issues. China thinks very long term.

中国的“一带一路”倡议并非做慈善。中国表明要“互利共赢”，这意味着中国也从中获益，包括能更便捷地获取有广泛来源的原材料（如石油），为大型国企带来大规模业务，为中国产品拓展新市场以及在某些争议问题上获得地缘政治支持。中国的眼光非常长远。

If I'd be telling a story that the BRI is all "roses and cheers," that the BRI sprouts no problems, then I'd be telling a falsehood. Challenges abound, including excessive debt, project delays, poor project selection, corruption, cultural clashes, terrorism, and pushback, both from host countries and Western countries. Yet, almost every developing country wants more, not less, of China's BRI. They need it.

如果我说，“一带一路”全是“鲜花和掌声”，这一倡议没有引发任何问题，那我就偏离了真相。它面临的挑战有很多，包括高额债务、项目延期、立项不当、腐败、文化冲突、遭遇恐怖主义威胁以及来自西方国家，甚至个别东道国的抵制。然而，几乎所有发展中国家都希望能从中国的这一倡议中更多而非更少地获益。他们需要“一带一路”。

I'm keeping watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

我将持续观察。我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩。

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