I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: China's Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, on its 10th anniversary — where does it go from here? The BRI began as President Xi Jinping's strategic vision to connect China with Europe through Central Asia. It then expanded to Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Today, with its vast array of projects and activities, the BRI exemplifies China's global economic ambition and growing footprint — the BRI is even said to represent China's foreign policy, tasked to achieve strategic goals, such as internationalizing the renminbi and securing natural resources from oil for energy to lithium for batteries.
我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩，以下是我正在关注的：中国“一带一路”倡议已提出十周年，未来之路将通往何方？“一带一路”始于习近平主席的战略性愿景，希望通过中亚连接中国和欧洲；之后，该倡议拓展到东南亚、南亚、中东和非洲。如今，随着大量工程项目和活动的展开，“一带一路”彰显了中国以经济连全球的雄心和不断延伸的步伐，甚至有人称其代表着中国的外交政策，肩负着实现诸多战略目标的使命，比如，推动人民币国际化和获取包括能源中的石油、用于制造电池的锂等自然资源。According to a 2019 World Bank policy paper, the BRI is largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline), which translates into almost half a trillion dollars. Second, globally, the BRI could help lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million out of moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions.根据2019年世界银行研究报告，共建“一带一路”将为世界带来极大的收益。首先，到2030年，全球收入将增长0.7个百分点（相对于2014年的基线），这相当于近5000亿美元的增长。其次，全球范围内 “一带一路”倡议能够帮助760万人摆脱极端贫困、3200万人摆脱中度贫困。再次，“一带一路”倡议或有助于将全球二氧化碳排放量控制为小幅增加。Looking to the future, along with controlling and preventing risks, BRI projects will focus more on science and technology, and on industrial transformation, leveraging China's industrial and supply chain advantages. With its 41 major industrial categories, 207 intermediate categories, and 666 small categories, China is the only country in the world that has all industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification. Moreover, China's technologies are now world-class in new energy vehicles, high-speed rail, offshore engineering equipment, wind and photovoltaic power, and power transmission and transformation. These provide opportunities to achieve high-level industrial cooperation with BRI countries.面向未来，防控风险的同时，“一带一路”项目将更加聚焦科技和产业转型，利用中国产业链供应链等优势。中国拥有41个工业大类、207个工业中类和666个工业小类，是全世界唯一一个拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家。此外，中国的科技水平已位居世界前列，尤其是在新能源汽车、高铁、海洋工程装备、风光电、特高压输变电等领域。这些都为和共建国家开展高水平工业合作提供了机会。President Xi emphasized that BRI projects should cultivate new growth areas such as health, green, and digital, promoting information sharing and capacity building in sustainable, low-carbon development. In digital, China calls for new business models of BRI cooperation: smart cities, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and e-commerce. Mobile payments, where China is a leader, can spearhead "going global" and enhance the competitiveness of "Silk Road e-commerce" — and thus augment China's international influence. As BRI projects continue to develop, becoming more technological and more targeted, new business opportunities will emerge, especially for private companies. 习主席强调，共建“一带一路”要稳妥开展新领域合作，比如，在健康、生态、数字化等领域，以信息共享和能力建设助力绿色低碳、可持续发展。在数字化领域，中国呼吁培育“一带一路”合作新模式，如智慧城市、物联网、人工智能、大数据、云计算和电子商务。尤其是移动支付领域，中国作为领跑者，能够引领“走出去”、提升“丝路电商”的竞争力，进而提升中国的国际影响力。随着共建“一带一路”不断推进，科技含量越来越高、定位越来越精准，新的商机将会涌现，尤其会为民营企业带来机会。To improve project quality, state-owned enterprises, SOEs, will work harder to secure financing. In the past, SOEs were paid well and rapidly for working their BRI projects and the state policy banks took all the financial risk if the loans went sour. This China-side structure was a recipe for SOEs lobbying to make projects larger and more expensive, focusing more on short-term construction costs and less on long-term financial viability. BRI lending peaked around 2016 — the impact of which China continues to feel. Today, China's policy banks are more risk-averse and SOEs must become more risk-sharing.为提高项目质量，国有企业将着力保障融资。此前，国企能够快速地得到大量资金支持来开展“一带一路”项目建设，一旦出现坏账，往往由国有政策性银行承担所有财务风险。这一中方为主的结构导致国有企业倾向于把项目做大、把投资规模做大、更多关注短期建设成本而忽视长期的财务可行性。“一带一路”借贷额于2016年达到峰值，中国至今仍受其影响。现在，中国的政策性银行更加注重防备风险，国有企业也必须分担更多风险。One model is for SOEs to move away from working as riskless contractors and start developing projects under a "Build-Operate-Transfer" (BOT) structure. If the only way an SOE can recoup its investment and make a profit is by operating the project over many years — for example by collecting tolls on roads — SOE management will be exquisitely more careful in project selection and financial structure. A recent case is in Kenya, where the Chinese SOE built an expressway in Nairobi under a "public-private partnership" with the government.国有企业可采取一个模式，不再作为无风险承包商，而是以建造–运营–移交（BOT）模式开发项目。如果国企收回投资并盈利的唯一方式是通过设立公路收费站这样的多年项目运营，那么，国企的管理层就会更加谨慎地筛选项目、关注资金结构。最近，在肯尼亚首都内罗毕，中国的国企修建了一条高速公路，是和当地政府以“政府和社会资本合作”模式建设的。It is estimated that in the next ten years, BRI countries will increase trade volume by 2.5 trillion USD, boosting economic globalization and reducing global inequalities. It would also facilitate geo-strategic re-alignment, reforming the international order. That's China's plan.据估算，未来十年，“一带一路”共建国家的贸易额将增加2.5万亿美元；这将推动经济全球化、缩小全球不平等也将促进地缘战略调整，改革国际秩序。这是中国的规划。I'm keeping Watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.