授人与渔：新债王2019年预测及思路【中英文】
在2018年成功预测多个市场变化的新债王冈德拉克，周二在其备受关注的年度“Just Markets”网络直播中给出了他对未来一年全球经济、美联储、各类资产和地区投资的看法，路闻卓立翻译并整理了这些预测，并介绍了债王得出这些结论的思路。
图|彭博
被誉为新债王的、DoubleLine Capital执行长冈德拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)周二在一年一度的“Just Markets”网络直播中给出了他对未来一年的预测。截止12月31日，DoubleLine管理的资产估计达1,210亿美元。
The Los Angeles-based firm’s chief investment officer was speaking Tuesday on his annual “Just Markets” webcast. DoubleLine had an estimated $121 billion in assets under management as of Dec. 31.
全球经济：相较于一年前，变得更加悲观
Gundlach回顾了为什么他对2018年初的全球经济持乐观态度，并且在一年之后变得更加悲观，这归功于反映严重依赖出口的韩国经济的重要指标--韩国综合股价指数(Kospi)，该指数被视为衡量全球贸易和商业状况的先行指标。果然，许多地区的花旗经济数据变化指数已经触及多年低位，尤其是欧洲。
然后，债王贴出了DB的热门图表，从图中可见2018年没有人赚钱。债王指出，造成这种困境的主要罪魁祸首是合并后的央行资产负债表一直在萎缩，导致MSCI明晟全球指数疲软。
Gundlach recalls why he was optimistic the global economy at the start of 2018, and has grown more pessimistic one year later, courtesy of the key proxy, the Kospi stock index, a bellwether for global trade and commerce, for the export-heavy South Korean economy. Sure enough, Citi's economic data change index has hit troughs not seen in many years for most regions, and especially Europe.
The bond king then reposts the popular chart from DB showing that nobody made any money in 2018 and claims that key culprit for this predicament is that the consolidated central bank balance sheet has been shrinking, resulting in MSCI World weakness.
衰退：风险处于早期阶段，但在不断上升
对于经济放缓，冈德拉克关注最近大幅下滑的制造业采购经理人指数(ISM)，在经济衰退担忧升温之际，该指数创下10年来最大降幅，从而推动股市在上周暴跌。为什么要关注信心调查报告？因为据冈德拉克的说法，这些报告“反映了人们对市场未来走向的看法，因此值得关注。”
可以在各种各样的企业和消费者信心指标中找到一个更好的经济报告，这些指标仍相对可靠，并且距离暗示经济衰退将至还有一段距离，不过这些指标正开始就衰退闪烁“黄灯”。
此外，虽然近几周经济衰退问题在华尔街引起了广泛讨论，但下图显示距离萎缩还没那么近。从该图中2001年和2007年的走势来看，垃圾债利差走势往往较衰退有6个月的前瞻性。不过，冈德拉克指出，从警示衰退的红色警报线来看，尽管衰退风险仍处在相对早期阶段，但却在上升。
但值得关注的是，美国短期国债收益率现已超过长期国债收益率; 正如冈德拉克提供的下面这张美国银行图表所所示的，每次这种倒挂出现后，都会出现一段时间的市场震荡。
Going back to the economic slowdown, Gundlach understandably focuses on the recent collapse in the Mfg ISM, which tumbled by the most in a decade, and sent stocks plunging last week amid a spike in recession fears. Why focus on sentiment surveys? Because according to Gundlach, they are "worth following for a sense of where the market will go from here."
A better economic report card can be found in various measures of business and consumer sentiment, which are still relatively solid and a ways away from hinting at a recession, even if they are starting to "flash yellow" for recession.
Additionally, while recession concerns have been all the buzz on Wall Street in recent weeks, another chart showing that there is little imminent contraction on the horizon is the following chart showing how junk bond spreads have acted 6 months ahead of recessions (those in 2001 and 2007), although as Gundlach does note, the risk of a recession by the red line does suggest that the recession risk is rising, even if it is still relatively early.
Still, something to be concerned about is that US T-Bill yields have now surpassed bond market yields; and as the following BofA chart reference by Gundlach shows, every time this inversion has happened a period of market volatility has followed.
美联储：从“务实的鲍威尔“转为“鲍威尔卖权”
接下来，冈德拉克探讨了美联储 “点阵图”显示的升息预期与市场预期之间的差异，并强调了在美联储近期鸽派基调日增后，市场价格暗示的加息几率明显下降。
冈德拉克早些时候评论美联储时表示，鲍威尔上周五有关政策制定者正在“仔细聆听”市场的讲话显示他“完全投降”。他“从务实的鲍威尔转为鲍威尔卖权，而自此以来市场一直在狂欢。” 因此，随着市场反弹，冈德拉克“确信鲍威尔和美联储对他们的立场以及他们进一步实施量化紧缩的计划感觉更好。”
Next, Gundlach looks at the difference in rate hike expectations between the Fed via the "dots" and the market, and highlights the dramatic drop in market-implied rate hike odds following the Fed's recent dovish relents.
Commenting on the Fed earlier, Gundlach said that Powell staged a "full capitulation" on Friday with comments that policy makers are “listening carefully” to markets, where he "went from pragmatic Powell to Powell put and the markets have been throwing a party since then." And so, with the market rebounding, Gundlach is "sure that Jay Powell and the Fed are feeling better about where they stand and their plans to do quantitative tightening further."
美元指数：有可能迅速跌向94
对冈德拉克而言，进入2019年市场中的最大变量是美元强势（不断削弱）。此外看看下图的斐波那契(Fib)和相对强弱指数，冈德拉克已经发现了一个高峰并警告，如果突破38 斐波那契回档位，“美元指数迅速来到94就不会让我感到惊讶”（他补充说，对于那些不喜欢专注于技术面的人，你可以“捂住耳朵”。）
Meanwhile, a clear theme that has emerged is that for Gundlach the biggest variable in the market as we enter 2019 is the (declining) strength of the dollar, and looking at the following Fib and relative strength index, Gundlach has spotted a peak and cautions that should the 38 Fib retracement be breached, "I would not be surprised to see us moving quickly to 94 in the DXY" (he adds that for those who don't like to focus on technicals, you can "cover your ears and hum".)
比特币：可以轻松涨到5,000美元
而这里出现了令人惊讶的交易：冈德拉克相信比特币可以轻易达到5,000美元，或者说上涨25％，但他警告“胆小的人要远离比特币”。
And here a surprising trade reco: Gundlach believes that bitcoin could easily go to $5000, or a 25% gain, even as he warns to "get the heck away from bitcoin."
美债收益率：下行并趋陡
债券之王提到他最喜欢探讨的关系之一：10年期美债收益率VS.铜/金比率。冈德拉克指出，该指标显示10年期美债收益率将下滑。他问道：“我们为什么不一直跟随这个呢？”
不过，对于未来债券市场可能发生的事情，冈德拉克表示，与传统智慧相反，他预计债券收益率曲线将趋陡。
The bond king focuses on one of his favorite relationships - that of the 10Y TSY vs the Copper/Gold ratio, which to Gundlach suggests that the 10Y yield is going lower. Rhetorically, he asks "Why don’t we just follow this all the time?"
And yet, looking ahead at what he expects to happen to the bond market, Gundlach says that contrary to conventional wisdom, he expects the bond curve to steepen.
垃圾债：逢高出脱，转投资产负债表强劲公司
投资者应该把垃圾债的近期上涨“作为一个礼物，乘机摆脱它们”，并转而关注今年资产负债表强劲的公司。“这将是在2019年的动荡中生存下来的办法。”
Investors should use the recent strength of junk bonds “as a gift, and get out of them,” focusing instead on companies with strong balance sheets this year. “That’s going to be the way to survive the zigzags in 2019.”
美国债务：可怕的局面
此外，冈德拉克对美国债务增长敲响了警钟，称这是一个”可怕的局面”。
冈德拉克警告称，2018财年美国国家债务膨胀。作为类比，他指出这相当于美国每个家庭最多可获得3张5,000美元的信用卡。这样不断膨胀的债务规模对经济构成的威胁可能超出人们的预期：“我们真的在增长，还是只是基于债务？”他问道。
DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach sounded alarm bells on the growth of the U.S. national debt, calling it a “horrific situation.”
Gundlach warned that the national debt swelled in fiscal 2018. He likened it to every household in America maxing out three $5,000 credit cards. That ballooning debt could pose a greater threat to the economy than people realize: “Are we really growing at all, or is it just debt-based?” he asked.
美国政府关门加强了对股市动荡和中美贸易僵局的担忧。
The government shutdown is adding to rising worries on top of wobbly stocks and concerns about the U.S.-China trade impasse.
新兴市场：相对而言，到了投资新兴市场的时候
纵观市场，冈德拉克强调近期新兴市场表现优异，可能得益于美元持续疲软。他表示，相对而言，现在投资新兴市场的时候。可以预见的是，如果美元继续疲软，新兴市场表现将超越标普指数。
Looking at markets, Gundlach highlights the recent outperformance of Emerging Markets, which is likely due to the ongoing weakness in the dollar. It’s a time to invest in emerging markets “relativistically,” Gundlach said. Predictably, Gundlach says that if the dollar continue sto weaken, EM will outperform the S&P.
欧洲：是一个价值陷阱
冈德拉克还强调了标普指数与世界其他地区指数之间的背离，其中“令人惊讶的事件”便是初夏的脱钩，但在12月美元开始下跌后, 我们看到两个主要市场明显趋同。即便如此，冈德拉克仍认为欧洲是一个价值陷阱，特别是如果欧元走强，并补充道如果我们看到美元疲软，那可能是一个“发生改变的预兆”。
Gundlach also highlights the divergence between the S&P and the rest of the world, where the "amazing thing" was the decoupling in the early summer, yet in December we saw a sharp convergence between the two key markets once the dollar started to slide. Even so, Gundlach still sees Europe as a value trap, especially if the Euro gets stronger, and adds that if we see dollar weakness, that could be a "harbinger of change." (the end)
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