COVID-19 Data and Stories from Shanghai, New York & Sydney (2)

This is the 2nd part of a series of articles presenting key COVID-19 data and real stories from three populous cities in the world: Shanghai, New York and Sydney. These articles are intended to inform and engage audiences who are interested in COVID-19 related responses, experiences and solutions in these big cities and beyond. You are welcome to send any of your feedback to Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 at [e-mail] .

When the first part of this series of posts was written, Shanghai reported as high as 25,000 new COVID-19 cases per day for at least several days （for details see the 1st part which was published on April 18, 2022: COVID-19 Data and Stories from Shanghai, New York & Sydney (1)）.

The most updated data (as of April 22) show that the 7-day average of new cases in Shanghai decreased but still remained at about 21,000 per day (see the orange bar for Shanghai in the graph below).

Sources of data: Shanghai Municipal Health Commission; NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; NSW Government. The data were updated as of April 22, 2022. The combined graph was prepared by Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 ([e-mail]).

It is important to mention that between February 26 and April 18 only 3 confirmed COVID deaths were reported by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, but by today (April 23) the Commission reported a total of 48 deaths (an additional 45 deaths from April 19-23, or about 9 deaths per day in the last 5 days). This is a significant increase (and the real number could be higher).

The same graph above shows that although the 28-day daily average cases in Sydney (New South Wales, NSW, 17630 cases, the blue bar) were higher than that of Shanghai (16869 cases), the last 7 days daily average in NSW was much lower than Shanghai (13356 vs 20860, orange bars).

Real stories

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said two days ago that NSW had passed the peak of the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant while the state further lifted its COVID restrictions, including scrapping its isolation rules for close contacts of COVID cases from yesterday (The author reported on this in a separate article in Chinese: 总理候选人新冠阳性！澳大利亚这是要彻底“躺平”的节奏?Aus states to lift more COVID rules).    

The daily average of cases in New York City are much lower than those in NSW and Shanghai. However, there is a trend of increasing of COVID cases in New York – the 7-day daily average (2215, see the graph above) was higher than the 28-day daily average (1868); and both of these two measures increased from the average reported in the 1st part of the series (the 7-day & 28-day daily averages were 2122 and 1543, respectively).

It would be of great interest to continue to follow the development and trends of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths across these three populous cities in the coming weeks and months, especially given that Shanghai is still under lockdown and its reported cases and deaths tend to fluctuate from day to day (see the graph below for reported daily new cases for the first 22 days of April, 2022).

Source of data: Shanghai Municipal Health Commission. The graph was prepared by Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 ([e-mail]).

You are welcome to send your comments and suggestions to Dr. Lin Li at [e-mail]. Thank you.

The author of this series of articles, Dr. Lin Li, is a public health professional in Melbourne, Australia. Many years ago, he received an international scholarship funded by a foundation in New York, the United States. He left the Chinese disease control system where he had worked for several years, and did his PhD in public health at the University of Melbourne, with the support from the scholarship from New York. Over the past 10 years, Dr Li has been conducting public health research projects and international cooperation, including promoting health cooperation and exchanges between China, the United States, Australia and other countries. (More information about his work can be found through the following links: https://bit.ly/LinLiEPorforlio2022 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2sUgOmjAmVgqRijz7N1DMg , https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7643583/, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2679187/)

(BY DR LIN LI.  E-mail: [e-mail].  Website: https://www.eastwestpartners.org/ . E-Portforlios: https://bit.ly/LinLiEPorforlio2022)  

Main sources:

Shanghai Municipal Health Commission. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/yqtb/index.html

New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. COVID-19: Data.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#sum

New South Wales Government. COVID-19 (Coronavirus).

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#today

ABC News. Close contacts of COVID-19 cases in NSW no longer required to isolate at home for seven days.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/close-covid-19-close-contact-isolation-rules-lifted-nsw/101000980