2024会否再现2020?透视拜登宣布竞选连任后的选举形势
The following article is from 复旦中美友好互信合作计划 Author 田喆、信妍
* “中美友好互信合作计划”是由复旦发展研究院和丰实集团共同打造的中美关系研究的学术平台
本文概要:
1.目前美国国内民意显示,2024年拜登与特朗普再度对垒缺乏对美国选民缺乏吸引力。共和党内特朗普暂居上风,但仍需关注德桑蒂斯是否会成为特朗普的替代者。
2.民主党内年轻选民尽管可能无法对提名结果造成影响,但其态度背后反映问题值得关注。
3.为了进一步刺激选情,两党在枪支管控与堕胎权利等议题上的相互攻讦备受瞩目。共和党需要在基本盘选民与更广泛选民之间寻求平衡;民主党则可能借这两大议题,扩大竞选资本,并以此打压对手。
一、2024看点:拜登 VS 特朗普或将再次上演?
随着拜登宣布竞选连任,加之特朗普早在去年就明确其参选意向,因此各方高度关注2024年是否又是拜登与特朗普的再度对垒。然而尽管这种可能性存在,但从民意基础来看,拜登特朗普再度对垒对选民缺乏吸引力。
但是,即使拜登在民主党内不会面临类似共和党的群雄竞争,拜登与特朗普仍均可能在大选中面临全体民众的抵制。据《华盛顿邮报》报道,有65%的美国成年人表示,如果特朗普在大选中获得提名,他们肯定会或可能不会支持他,其中53%的人表示他们肯定不会。相比之下,拜登的障碍较小,但仍然很大:56%的美国选民表示他们“不太可能”在大选中支持拜登,这部分美国选民中41%的人则表示“绝对不会”。美国选民正在向两党发出明确的信息,即他们希望2024有新的候选人可供选择。《纽约时报》相关文章则称,2024年的美国大选,可能是由“既不喜欢特朗普也不喜欢拜登的选民”决定的。事实上,从FiveThityEight最新的数据显示,拜登和特朗普在选民中的支持率和好感度在一半左右,如何赢得另一批立场相反的选民是他们都要面对的难题。
截至4月25日各民意机构对拜登支持率和特朗普好感度的民意测试。图源:FiveThirtyEight
如果选民最终被迫在他们不想要的两名候选人中做出选择,会发生什么?《华尔街日报》一项由共和党民调专家托尼·法布里奇奥(Tony Fabrizio)进行的民调显示:在对特朗普和拜登均不赞成的选民中,拜登以超出特朗普支持率39个百分点的巨大优势领先——在这些选民中,支持拜登的达54%,而支持特朗普的仅为15%。显然,讨厌拜登的摇摆选民更讨厌特朗普。对此,部分媒体甚至表示特朗普实际上是拜登的“免死金牌”(“get out of jail free” card)。据日媒《每日新闻》报道,近几个月来,拜登的政治团队一直在准备再次面对特朗普。但即使像德桑蒂斯这样的替代者选赢得共和党提名,拜登的助手们仍认为,许多关于坚持 MAGA 极端主义的批评,同样适用于德桑蒂斯,因为许多共和党高层在关键政策和社会问题上都同意特朗普。
或许,对共和党而言,选择一个没有“特朗普”包袱的候选人正成为一种可能赢得选举的选择。右翼媒体《纽约邮报》(《New York Post》)似乎更支持德桑蒂斯成为共和党总统候选人。该报在4月26日发表评论称,尽管德桑蒂斯“内向”,但在施政层面“十分高效”,暗示对其竞选潜质的看好。在同日发表的另一篇社论中,《纽约邮报》则直指共和党应考虑“年轻活力、有干劲和目标”的“赢家德桑蒂斯”,而非摧毁共和党的“自杀式炸弹袭击者”、“输家特朗普”。而据CBS、美联社等媒体报道,德桑蒂斯的支持者正越发迫切地希望其宣布参选。此外,共和党控制的佛罗里达州立法机构亦在酝酿有关法案,以期允许德桑蒂斯在不卸任州长的情况下也能竞选总统。在此之前,佛州官员在竞选联邦公职时必须从州内公职机构离职。
尽管拜登特朗普对垒可能缺乏吸引力,但上述数据也暗示,若二人再度相会大选,竞争激烈程度并不会因此降低。至于德桑蒂斯是否会成为特朗普的替代者,还有待观察。根据美国民调网站FiveThirtyEight对共和党初选的民意平均值测算,截至当地时间4月25日,特朗普在党内依然保持着较高的支持率(51.0%),高于德桑蒂斯(24.4%)、彭斯(5.5%)和黑莉(4.1%)。目前德桑蒂斯尚未宣布参与2024年总统竞选,但根据英国《卫报》报道,知情人士透露德桑蒂斯正在悄悄组建竞选团队,最早可能会在5月的前两周启动竞选活动。根据Fox News的追踪报道,特朗普与德桑蒂斯最近陷入互相攻击之中,这种内耗的后果如何,尚不清楚。
截至4月25日的共和党内部分民调;图源:FiveThirtyEight。
二、“团结”的背后:民主党如何吸引年轻选民
在昨日推送的《正式官宣!看拜登2024竞选连任的两党视角和策略》文中提到,随着拜登宣布竞选连任,民主党内仅有的两位挑战者女作家玛丽安·威廉姆森(Marianne Williamson)和小罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert Kennedy Jr.)都难以对拜登构成实质性挑战。
自小罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert Kennedy Jr.)宣布参选后,多项民意调查显示其获得了两位数的支持,包括本周三福克斯新闻的一项调查显示他的支持率为19%。目前共和党认为肯尼迪的民调会削弱拜登的优势,但《华盛顿邮报》认为,相关支持率背后有一部分原因是源自肯尼迪总统的效应而被放大,此外肯尼迪的反疫苗立场及其言论也应被考虑在内。
小罗伯特·肯尼迪宣布竞选民主党总统候选人提名;图源:NYT。
尽管如此,拜登仍需要面对各界对其年龄的关注并赢得年轻选民的支持。根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的民意调查显示,只有25%的45岁以下民主党选民表示他们肯定会在大选中支持拜登,而在年长的民主党选民中,这一比例为56%。尽管如此,仍有 51% 的年轻民主党人表示,他们可能会在 2024 年大选中投票给拜登。但这一态度被认为是年轻选民希望党内高层能够考虑年轻选民的人口占比及其价值观。
与之相比,70岁的玛丽安·威廉姆森正受到年轻TikTok用户的狂热追捧。2023年3月4日,玛丽安·威廉姆森宣布竞逐2024年大选,成为第一位宣布竞选总统的民主党人,这也是她2020年宣布竞逐总统后第二次参选。尽管CNBC、美联社等媒体普遍看衰其前景,甚至认为由于威廉姆森“几乎肯定只会提供(对拜登)象征性的反对意见”,由此“证明了民主党人在拜登背后的团结程度是多么强烈”。但是,不少年轻选民显然有不同看法——在TikTok上,威廉姆森正在获得大量年轻粉丝的追捧。
70岁的威廉姆森正受到年轻TikTok用户的狂热追捧;图源:美联社。
根据 TikTok 数据统计,威廉姆森仅在 TikTok 上发布了 65 段视频,却吸引了超过 1100 万次观看。此外,TikTok上也有众多支持威廉姆森的账号,它们的名字多类似于@marianne2024winner @marianne4prez——这些账号发布威廉姆森的演讲,并获得大量关注。大受欢迎的帐户 @realdemocrat20 发布了多个威廉姆森视频,这些视频话题大多关于全民医疗保健、腐败、枪支权利或堕胎,获得了近百万的观看次数。
根据数字情报公司梯队洞察(Echelon Insights)3月的一份调查,在 30 岁以下的选民中,威廉姆森的支持率徘徊在20%以上——远高于她在 2020 年参选总统时的水平。美国媒体The Intercept认为,这表明了TikTok上威廉姆森粉丝的喧闹,正逐渐转化为实际的民意支持。
威廉姆森吸引年轻群体的原因包括她承诺将减免学贷、坚定的大麻合法化立场以及对体制的批评等。根据美联社等媒体的报道,威廉姆森将美国体制形容为“本质上腐败”,反对自由市场“思维模式”和腐败的政治制度,她说这种制度“将贪婪置于一切之上”。不过,作为一名已经售出数百万册图书的作家,威廉姆森的政治前景并不被看好,白宫新闻秘书卡琳·让-皮埃尔(Karine Jean-Pierre)甚至在今年3月的记者会上“明确地嘲笑”威廉姆森的竞选决定。但是,如The Intercept指出的,如果威廉姆森最终在年轻选民中表现出色——而这些年轻选民将她视为对当局体制的可靠局外批评者——那么如果民主党除了嘲笑她之外什么都不做,他们将很难重新赢得这些年轻选民的支持。
值得注意的是,2020年大选期间,威廉姆森也曾一度“病毒式走火”。在Reddit网站上,这位候选人也同样吸引了一批年轻选民。不过,如今的民调已经证明,TikTok粉丝转化为民意支持的效率,远高于Reddit。总之,虽然威廉姆森难以成为拜登有力的党内竞争对手,但其背后反映的问题,如年轻选民诉求等,也是民主党未来需要正视的。
三、关键议题:两党未来的交锋角力
虽然预言谁与拜登角逐大位为时尚早,但两党在2024交锋的关键议题已经展露端倪。美国《国会山报》(The Hill)认为,目前两党在应对通胀、堕胎、犯罪、移民以及特朗普议题的认知上存在很大的理解差异。这些差异恰恰也会成为2024角力的重点交锋议题。
图片来源:GettyImages。
例如在通胀问题上,前国际货币基金组织顾问乔什·利普斯基(Josh Lipsky)认为,中期选举后,国会的焦点之一将是美联储,因为债务上限问题是两党面临的急迫挑战。美国财长耶伦曾表示,美国最快可能在2023年夏天达到债务上限,其后果可能是信用评级下调、利率螺旋上升和股市震荡等,这也是拜登宣布参选后接下来几周可能面临的挑战。
在外交层面,大西洋理事会欧洲中心高级研究员雷切尔·里佐(Rachel Rizzo)认为,过去两年中,修复与欧洲的关系(在特朗普时代经历冲击)一直是拜登外交议题中的重要支点,但中期选举之后,随着共和党夺回众议院,欧洲则可能面临越来越多的批评,这些批评或将直指欧洲“未能在国防和安全方面发挥作用”。另外,前美国国家安全官员基特·科克林(Kit Conklin)认为,拜登的中国政策也将被共和党人挑战,总体而言,共和党领导的众议院将把中美技术竞争视为优先事项,而供应链、美国出口管制效力等话题也都将被众议院额外关照。同时,美国前驻乌克兰大使约翰·赫布斯特(John Herbst)认为,中期选举后,美国对乌克兰政策并不会有大幅转变,因民主党保住参议院控制权,且共和党中偏向特朗普和民粹主义派系在中期选举中表现不佳,中期选举后的国会将继续为乌克兰提供大力支持。对伊朗政策,两党立场则相对一致,因此不应会有大幅转变,不过众议院共和党人可能强化类似内塔尼亚胡的对伊鹰派观点。新一届众议院还将加紧寻求减少中美洲难民涌入美国,并对拜登政府此前对中美洲的有关政策进行审查。
此外,为了进一步刺激选情,枪支管控与堕胎权利的争辩备受瞩目。一来,共和党在控枪与堕胎议题上,均面临着相似困境,即如何在基本盘选民与更广泛选民之间寻求平衡;而民主党则可能借这两大议题,扩大竞选资本,并以此打压对手。
在枪支管控问题上,大规模枪击事件的悲剧频发使该议题在两党政治议程上居高不下。民主党人认为这个问题将有助于他们在关键摇摆州的郊区选民中获得支持,并将使共和党人在基础选民和更广泛选民之间两头受气,共和党的基础选民倾向于希望拥枪权利不受限制,而更广泛的选民则倾向于对枪支进行更加严格的管控。
根据YouGov的调查,尽管两党大部分选民均支持特定程度的枪支管控,但是,右翼团体的广泛存在让这一群体的选票难以忽视。4月15日,爱达荷州共和党筹款活动上,曾在反种族主义活动中开枪射杀两人的右翼人士凯尔·里滕豪斯(Kyle Rittenhouse)作为嘉宾出席活动,而在今年早些时候,里滕豪斯还做客小特朗普(Donald Trump Jr.)的播客。公益组织“西部国家中心”(Western States Center)研究员斯蒂芬·皮戈特 (Stephen Piggott)评论称,对里滕豪斯进行赞美是危险的,他专注于白人至上、准军事和反民主主义。《卫报》对此报道称,里滕豪斯已经成为“极右翼的宠儿”,而爱达荷州共和党则被指责“美化政治暴力”。
2022年12月,里滕豪斯在右翼活动上接受采访;图源:路透社
另外,两党围绕堕胎权利的相互攻讦也将伴随整个选举进程。2022年6月24日,保守派法官占多数的最高法院推翻1973年罗伊诉韦德案(Roe v. Wade),标志着堕胎权将不再是联邦宪法认可的公民权利,堕胎权则将交由各州决定,这一判决引发了全美自由派人士的不满,拜登将这一天称作“对法院和国家而言都是悲伤的一天”。在民主党备选道路上,堕胎问题正成为核心议题。据《纽约时报》消息,从北卡罗来纳州到内华达州,各级政府的民主党人都发誓要将支持堕胎权作为他们竞选活动的支柱,并在这个问题上将他们的对手描绘成极端分子。
今年4月,坚定堕胎权支持者、自由派法官珍妮特·普罗塔西维茨(Janet Protasiewicz)以压倒性优势赢得威斯康星州最高法院选举,这被视为堕胎支持者的胜利。对此,保守派评论员安·库尔特(Ann Coulter)认为,尽管推翻罗伊诉韦德案是反堕胎人士(其中很大一部分保守派人士是共和党的基本盘)的胜利,但这一胜利对共和党选情而言适得其反,库尔特呼吁“停止对堕胎加以限制”,否则在可预见的未来“就没有共和党了”。对此,《纽约时报》评论,随着选举的激烈化,共和党人被夹在既要满足社会保守派需求、又要应对广大美国民众普遍支持堕胎权利的要求之间,暴露了共和党在试图赢得总统大选、重新夺回参议院并扩大其微弱的众议院多数席位时面临的最大政治难题之一。
2023 年 4 月 4 日,威斯康星州密尔沃基,珍妮特·普罗塔西维茨在赢得威斯康星州最高法院席位后发表胜利演讲;图源:WPR
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15. Adam Gabbatt, Republicans ‘glorify political violence’ by embracing extreme gun culture, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/24/republicans-embrace-extreme-gun-culture
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17. NBC, After recent mass shootings, a majority of Americans desire stricter gun control laws, https://www.nbc.com/meet-the-press/video/panel-poll-shows-28-know-a-gun-violence-victim-but-no-one-in-congress-is-talking-about-it/NBCN175141812
18. Shawn Johnson, For the first time in 15 years, liberals win control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, https://www.npr.org/2023/04/04/1167815077/wisconsin-supreme-court-election-results-abortion-voting-protasiewicz-kelly
19. Lis Smith, Biden’s Biggest Advantage Has Nothing to Do With Anything He’s Done, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/opinion/joe-biden-2024-reelection-win.html
20. Zeke Miller, Biden announces 2024 reelection bid: ‘Let’s finish this job’, https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-election-2024-president-democrats-trump-9c72115656855da89a41cac3f79aa65b
21. Peter Baker, Biden Is Running on His Record (and Away From It), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/us/politics/biden-record-presidential-campaign.html
22. Steve Peoples, Some DeSantis allies feel growing urgency to launch 2024 bid, https://apnews.com/article/desantis-2024-presidential-urgency-a224ad6222d5e8e11e485e5d8b7f99a9
23. Liam Buckler, Joe Biden video: Watch emotional clip as desperate Republicans respond with AI spoof, https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/joe-biden-video-watch-emotional-29804597
24. Alex Gangitano, RNC counters Biden 2024 campaign launch with AI-generated fake news disasters, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3970062-rnc-counters-biden-2024-campaign-launch-with-ai-generated-fake-news-disasters/
25. Zachary Basu, 2024 Republicans eye new abortion battle lines, https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/abortion-republicans-2024-nikki-haley
26. Austin Westfall, Why South Carolina matters in the 2024 GOP primary, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/why-south-carolina-matters-in-the-2024-gop-primary
27. Aaron Navarro, Florida state Republicans try to change "resign-to-run" law ahead of possible DeSantis 2024 bid, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/desantis-florida-state-republicans-try-to-change-resign-to-run-law-2024-presidential-bid/
28. Tal Axelrod, 5 takeaways after Biden's 2024 campaign launch -- and why Dems and GOP are both confident, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/5-takeaways-after-bidens-2024-campaign-launch-dems/story?id=98815475
29. David Jackson, 'NO!': Donald Trump suggests he may skip Republican debates because of sponsors and venues, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/25/donald-trump-2024-republican-primary-debates/11737199002/
30. Matt Dixon, Florida GOP files proposal to clear the way for a DeSantis 2024 bid, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/florida-gop-files-proposal-clear-way-ron-desantis-2024-rcna81416
31. Donie O'Sullivan,AI-generated GOP campaign video may be harbinger of disturbing new trend for 2024, expert says,https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-2024-presidential-election/h_c37699813f44e266d866a16cf65d451b.
32. Jennifer Agiesta and Christopher Hickley,Biden is tied for second-lowest approval rating of any president in the past 70 years,https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-2024-presidential-election/h_5d4c152b14681e86c02b18a2e163f0fa
33. SEUNG MIN KIM and EMILY SWANSON,Biden 2024 splits Dems but most would back him: AP-NORC poll,https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-poll-2024-white-house-economy-873663f6e3cbca8f2dae2f018c8be9d3
34. Ronna McDaniel,Biden's vow to 'finish the job' should terrify every American,https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/bidens-vow-finish-job-terrify-every-american
35. Mainichi Japan,Why is Biden announcing 2024 bid now, and what will change?,https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20230426/p2g/00m/0in/005000c
36. Steve Holland,Jarrett Renshaw and Heather Timmons,Biden, 80, makes 2024 presidential run official as Trump fight looms,https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-80-makes-2024-presidential-run-official-lets-finish-this-job-2023-04-25/
37. Martín González Gómez and Maggie Astor,Who’s Running for President in 2024?,https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/politics/presidential-candidates-2024.html?name=styln-2024-election®ion=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&variant=undefined
38. Jonathan Weisman,Analysis: Biden Faces Headwinds, but Democrats See Reasons for Optimism,https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/us/politics/biden-re-election.html?name=styln-2024-election®ion=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&variant=undefined
39. Nate Cohn,An Early, Early Look at Biden’s 2024 Prospects,https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/25/upshot/polls-biden-trump-2024.html?name=styln-2024-election®ion=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Article&variant=undefined
40. FiveThirtyEight,Latest Polls,https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
41. FiveThirtyEight,Who’s ahead in the national polls?,https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
42. the Editorial Board,Biden is right. We’re still fighting a battle for the soul of America.,https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/25/biden-reelection-announcement-democracy-ukraine/
43. Marc Thiessen,Dear President Trump: Please don’t run again,https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/14/trump-2024-candidate-hurt-republicans/
44. 沈岚,《1948年国民政府技术代表团赴美期间贝祖诒致张嘉等函件》,《民国档案》,2004年第2期,第38-53页。
45. Allie Griffin, Biden takes shot at Trump and Republicans on ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’, https://nypost.com/2022/06/08/biden-takes-shot-at-trump-and-republicans-on-jimmy-kimmel-live/
46. Siladitya Ray, Jimmy Kimmel Grills Biden On Gun Violence And Political Gridlock In Late-Night Interview, https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2022/06/09/biden-calls-out-intimidation-by-nra-as-he-urges-americans-to-make-gun-safety-a-ballot-issue-during-jimmy-kimmel-appearance/?sh=673102903210
47. The Economic Times, Few laughs, more tough questions: US Prez Joe Biden chats with late-night host on 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!', https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/few-laughs-more-tough-questions-us-prez-joe-biden-chats-with-late-night-host-on-jimmy-kimmel-live/articleshow/92108446.cms
48. Dennis Romero, Biden to appear on 'Jimmy Kimmel Live' in his first late-night sit-down in office, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-appear-jimmy-kimmel-live-first-late-night-sit-office-rcna32053
49. Frank Pallotta, President Biden talks gun control with Jimmy Kimmel for his first in-person late night appearance, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/08/media/jimmy-kimmel-joe-biden/index.html
50. Dan Balz, Biden’s balance sheet: Weak numbers, but in Donald Trump, a valuable foil, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/25/bidens-balance-sheet-weak-numbers-donald-trump-valuable-foil/
51. Katherine Doyle and Monica Alba, Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer', https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/-joe-biden-president-election-2024-campaign-announcement-rcna80990
52. David Shepardson, Nandita Bose, Biden signs bill to block U.S. railroad strike, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-railroad-strike-2022-12-02/
53. Michael Sainato, ‘Joe Biden blew it’: rail unions decry plan to impose deal through Congress, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/30/us-rail-strike-unions-decry-biden-proposal#:~:text=As%20a%209%20December%20deadline,a%20day%20by%20some%20estimates.
54. Philip Elliott, Why ‘Union Joe’ Chose to Make it Illegal for Rail Workers to Strike, https://time.com/6238361/joe-biden-rail-strike-illegal/
55. SCMP, China features in Republican AI-generated ad attacking ‘weakest president’ Joe Biden, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3218370/china-features-republican-ai-generated-ad-attacking-joe-biden?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
56. Patrick deHahn, Republicans' anti-Biden advertisement made 'entirely' with AI,
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2023/04/25/republicans-issue-anti-biden-advert-made-entirely-with-ai/
57. Jack Birle, GOP runs ad using AI images to envision disastrous Biden second term, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/gop-ad-using-ai-images-biden-second-term
58. 联合早报,拜登:我了解特朗普 可在明年选举中再次击败他,https://www.zaobao.com/realtime/world/story20230427-1387862
59. Katherine Doyle, Biden addresses concerns about his age after launching his 2024 re-election bid, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/biden-addresses-concerns-about-his-age-after-launching-his-2024-re-election-bid.html
60. John Wagner, Biden says he expects voters to take ‘a hard look’ at his age, as he did, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/26/biden-age-hard-look-trump/
61. Peter Nicholas, Mike Memoli, 'Too old': 80-year-old Biden works to combat worries about his age in re-election bid, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/-old-80-year-old-biden-works-combat-worries-age-re-election-bid-rcna80993
62. Edward-Isaac Dovere, Democrats push abortion rights to the ballot in 2024, using an old GOP playbook, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/07/politics/democrats-abortion-ballot-measures-2024/index.html
63. Eric Bradner, Liberals will win control of Wisconsin Supreme Court, CNN projects, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/04/politics/wisconsin-election-supreme-court-results/index.html
64. Ariane de Vogue, Tierney Sneed, Chandelis Duster, Devan Cole, Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/24/politics/dobbs-mississippi-supreme-court-abortion-roe-wade/index.html
65. Katie Glueck, Abortion Surges to the Center of the 2024 Campaign, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/us/politics/abortion-politics-2024-republicans-democrats.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-2024-election&variant=show®ion=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&block=storyline_flex_guide_recirc
66. Katherine Doyle, Monica Alba, Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer', https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/-joe-biden-president-election-2024-campaign-announcement-rcna80990
67. Hugo Lowell,DeSantis assembles senior staff for expected 2024 presidential campaign,https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/27/ron-desantis-2024-presidential-campaign-staff.
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