Coronavirus Math: OMG Look What's Skyrocketing!
First off, I know you haven't weaned yourself off checking the infection numbers hourly like you're a panicked day trader.
To be honest, I'm still grappling with this mild form of mental illness as well, but I'm trying to kick the habit ("Hi my name is Michael Wester and I'm a Coronavirus Infection Count addict," I imagine myself telling a crowd in group therapy one day).
But given I'm powerless to stop that train (in fact I take a certain amount of blame for perpetuating it), I'd like to call your attention to a really critical number that is skyrocketing, perhaps even crawling up the elbow of the proverbial hockey-stick growth curve: recoveries.
From Dr Lilac, recoveries (bluish-green line) are rising as fast or faster than deaths
Yes, recoveries are going way up, as they should — because we're only about 10 days into being constantly glued to these updates and all signs point to this virus being one of the weaker of humanity's recent plagues.
Which brings up another issue: whither the "death rate" for the Wuhan Coronavirus?
Several people have asked me (to which I immediately reply, "I am not an expert in any way, shape or form, I'm just bored and obsessed"): what is the actual death rate for this new virus?
The short answer is we don't know, because as of 11.15am this morning, only 4.4% of confirmed infections have come to a measurable conclusion (either recovery or death).
According to our go-to source, Dr. Lilac, here are the (relatively current) counts:
14,441 confirmed cases (I assume this means hospitalized, though I am not 100% sure all confirmed cases are being treated as in-patients)
331 recoveries
304 deaths
(There are also 19,544 suspected but unconfirmed cases, but let's ignore this for now)
OK so, what is the "death rate"?
Some will say:
304 deaths / 14,441 confirmed cases = 2.1%
However, others (including my 12-year-old) say it should be:
304 deaths / [total known outcomes, aka 304 deaths + 331 recoveries, or 635] = 47.8%
The answer is: both of them are wrong, for two reasons (1) ongoing cases and (2) imprecise language.
Ongoing Cases: Until we have more data, there are just too many unresolved cases to make firm conclusions. It will likely be years (not days, weeks or even months) before all the data is sifted through and a true rate is determined.
Imprecise language: "Death rate" does not mean anything until you specifically qualify what it is you are measuring.
"Deaths / confirmed hospitalizations" is a much more accurate term (though it does not roll off the tongue quite as well).
It's also important to note that even this is not likely the "actual" death rate of the virus, because as with all relatively mild viruses, the vast majority of those who contract one will not seek medical treatment nor be tested for the virus. When's the last time you went to the hospital and were admitted as the result of the flu?
Many have reached for data from other countries, and the US "death rate" for seasonal influenza is often being cited for comparison. This too is clouded by people looking at two different data points:
Deaths / confirmed hospitalizations
vs
Deaths / estimated number of infections
The problem here again is that the vast majority of people who contract the flu do not end up going to the hospital at all (let alone get admitted).
So ... what does this all mean? I don't know, but from the tea leaves I've been reading (aka CDC, WHO, and a number of trusted media sources), this is not an extremely deadly virus.
Reasons to be hopeful include the fact that the vast majority of doctors reporting from the front lines are saying most confirmed patients are currently stable rather than in critical or life-threatening condition, which implies the deaths expressed as a percentage of confirmed cases is likely to remain similar.
Also, the (admittedly very early) trend we have been seeing (as we have been obsessed with these numbers pretty much full time for 10 days now) is that the overall deaths/confirmed cases rate is moving ever so slightly downward, as it was around 2.9% when we started tracking these numbers.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I gotta go check the numbers again.
KEEP READING: [OPINION] Stay Where You Are, Beijing. It's Your Safest Option
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