古特雷斯: 乌克兰危机影响我们所有人
美东时间4月13日，联合国秘书长古特雷斯提交了“全球粮食、能源和金融危机应对小组”（Global Crisis Response Group on Food，Energy and Finance）发布的首份详细政策简报。他成立该小组是为了研究乌克兰战争对全球最弱势群体的影响。以下是调查结果的摘要，以及就该小组旨在实现的目标的一些问题的解答。
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古特雷斯秘书长讲话全文
Ladies and gentlemen of the press. Thank you very much for coming.
Now, since the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, the world’s attention has been focused on the war’s terrifying levels of death, destruction and suffering.
From the start, the United Nations has been actively engaged in delivering humanitarian support to the people in Ukraine, the people who are paying the highest price, and to the host countries of the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since the Second World War.
But less attention has been paid to the global impact of the war in all its dimensions in a world that was already witnessing increased poverty, hunger and social unrest.
The war is supercharging a three-dimensional crisis — food, energy and finance — that is pummeling some of the world’s most vulnerable people, countries and economies.
And all this comes at a time when developing countries are already struggling with a slate of challenges not of their making — the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and a lack of access to adequate resources to finance the recovery in the context of persistent and growing inequalities.
We are now facing a perfect storm that threatens to devastate the economies of many developing countries.
That is why, in the earliest days of this war, I established the Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy and Finance, facilitated by a Task Team in the UN Secretariat, reporting to a Steering Committee involving all UN agencies and international financial institutions.
Today, we are launching the Task Team’s first Report.
I am joined by the Secretary-General of UNCTAD, Rebeca Grynspan, who coordinates the Task Team, and by the Deputy Secretary-General, who presides over the Steering Committee.
Ms. Grynspan will go through the recommendations.
But I want to highlight two overarching points made crystal clear in this report.
First, the impact of the war is global and systemic.
As many as 1.7 billion people — one-third of whom are already living in poverty — are now highly exposed to disruptions in food, energy and finance systems that are triggering increases in poverty and hunger.
Thirty-six countries count on Russia and Ukraine for more than half of their wheat imports — including some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries of the world.
Prices were already on the rise — but the war has made a bad situation far worse.
Wheat and maize prices have been very volatile since the war began but are still 30 per cent higher just since the start of the year.
At the same time, Russia is a top energy supplier.
Oil prices are up more than 60 per cent over the past year, accelerating the prevailing trends.
The same goes for natural gas prices, which have risen by 50 per cent in recent months.
And fertilizer prices have more than doubled.
As prices climb, so does hunger and malnutrition — especially for young children.
Inflation is rising, purchasing power is eroding, growth prospects are shrinking, and development is being stalled and, in some cases, gains are receding.
Many developing economies are drowning in debt, with bond yields already on the rise since last September, leading now to increased risk premiums and exchange rate pressures.
This is setting in motion a potential vicious circle of inflation and stagnation – the so-called stagflation.
The report also shows that there is a direct correlation between rising food prices and social and political instability.
Our world cannot afford this. We need to act now.
And that leads to the second point clearly demonstrated by this report: we can do something about this three-dimensional crisis.
We have the capacity to cushion the blow.
The report offers more than a dozen recommendations, but I would boil down the messages to three fundamental points.
First — we must not make things worse.
That means ensuring a steady flow of food and energy through open markets.
It means lifting all unnecessary export restrictions, and this is not the time for protectionism.
It means directing surpluses and reserves to those in need.
And keeping a lid on food prices and calming the volatility in food markets.
Second — we can maximize this moment to push for the transformational change our world needs.
Look no further than the energy crisis.
In the immediate-term, countries must resist hoarding, and release strategic stockpiles and additional reserves.
But now is also the time to turn this crisis into an opportunity.
We must work towards progressively phasing-out coal and other fossil fuels and accelerating the deployment of renewable energy and a just transition.
And third — we need to pull developing countries back from the financial brink.
The international financial system has deep pockets.
I have been strongly advocating for its reform.
But developing countries need help now, and the funds are there.
So, we need to make them available to economies that need them most so that governments can avoid default, provide social safety nets for the poorest and most vulnerable, and continue to make critical investments in sustainable development.
This is not a crisis that can be solved piecemeal, country by country.
This global and systemic emergency requires global and systemic solutions.
The report includes concrete recommendations for international financial institutions to increase liquidity and fiscal space.
As we approach the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF, we need political will and leadership. Resources are available.
We must speak with one voice: action today will prevent suffering tomorrow.
Dear friends,
Above all, this war must end.
The people of Ukraine cannot bear the violence being inflicted on them.
And the most vulnerable people around the globe cannot become collateral damage in yet another disaster for which they bear no responsibility.
We need to silence the guns and accelerate negotiations towards peace, now.
For the people of Ukraine. For the people of the region. And for the people of the world. Thank you.
©联合国图片｜全世界在粮食、能源和金融中至少有一个方面受到严冲击的经济体有107个
古特雷斯在简报发布会上指出，虽然大多数注意力都集中在战争对乌克兰人的影响上，但在一个已经目睹贫困、饥饿和社会动荡加剧的世界上，战争也产生了全球性影响。
他表示：“我们现在正面临一场可能摧毁发展中国家经济的剧烈风暴。”
©联合国图片｜发展中国家的偿债成本不断上升
©儿基会图片｜印度的一个贫民窟里，一位母亲抱着她的孩子
全球粮食、能源和金融危机应对小组
危机应对小组由32名成员组成，由联合国常务副秘书长阿米娜·穆罕默德担任主席，成员包括联合国机构、开发银行和其他国际组织的负责人。
古特雷斯于3月14日发起了这一倡议，以回应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的潜在后果以及新冠疫情的持续影响的关切。
©联合国图片｜粮农组织食品价格指数
会有什么帮助？
该小组将确保各国政府、多边体系和广泛部门之间的合作，以帮助脆弱国家避免大规模危机。
这将通过高级别协调和伙伴关系、紧急行动以及获取关键数据、分析和政策建议来实现。第一份政策简报于周三发布。
©儿基会图片｜在南苏丹，一位祖母在照顾她17个月大营养不良的孙子
为什么重要？
乌克兰危机有可能导致17亿人——超过五分之一的世界人口——陷入贫困、匮乏和饥饿。
乌克兰和俄罗斯联邦提供了世界30%的小麦和大麦，五分之一的玉米和一半以上的葵花籽油。
总的来说，它们的谷物是一些最贫困和最弱势人群的基本食物来源，为45个非洲和最不发达国家提供了超过三分之一的小麦进口。
与此同时，俄罗斯是世界上最大的天然气出口国，第二大石油出口国。
这场战争加剧了许多发展中国家因新冠疫情以及历史债务负担和通货膨胀飙升而面临的挑战。
自2022年初以来，小麦和玉米价格上涨了30%，去年油价上涨了60%以上，天然气和化肥价格上涨了一倍多。
与此同时，联合国的人道主义行动正面临资金短缺: 世界粮食计划署警告说，它没有足够的资源来为处于绝望境地的饥饿人口提供食物。该机构迫切需要80亿美元来支持其在也门、乍得和尼日尔的行动。
古特雷斯说，这份报告表明，“食品价格上涨与社会和政治不稳定之间存在直接关联。我们的世界承受不起这一切。我们需要现在就采取行动”。
©粮农组织图片｜乌克兰克拉斯内收割季节的麦田
©联合国图片｜俄罗斯和白俄罗斯占世界肥料出口的 20% 以上
第一份政策简报提出什么建议？
这份政策简报强调了全球合作应对这场危机的重要性，称这场危机“将留下深刻而持久的伤疤”。该报告呼吁所有国家——以及私营部门、非政府组织和其他行为者——认识到“越来越常见的全球冲击的本质是，国家不能单独负责”，解决方案需要基于全球风险，而不是国家风险。
鉴于粮食、燃料和其他商品价格飙升，简报敦促所有国家保持市场开放，抵制囤积和不必要的出口限制，并向面临饥饿和饥荒风险最高的国家提供储备。
该报告呼吁国际金融机构向最脆弱的国家发放资金，帮助发展中国家政府通过增加社会保护对最贫穷和最脆弱的人进行投资，并努力改革全球金融体系，以减少不平等现象。
这份政策简报称，人道主义募捐呼吁必须得到充分资助，而且需要对国际金融体系进行重大改革，用联合国秘书长的话说，“将发展中国家从金融边缘拉回来”。
政策简报认为，这场取决于世界如何应对的危机，也可能成为地球的机遇。在短期内，需要释放化石燃料的战略储备，以稳定价格和确保充足的供应。然而，加大可再生能源的部署将有助于确保目前看到的能源价格上涨不会在未来重演，同时加快向更清洁、低碳的能源未来迈进。
©世界农民组织图片｜阿富汗的人们在排队等候世界粮食计划开发署发放粮食
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资料来源：联合国新闻