China's Economy Grew 6.9% in 2017... Or Did It?

By Bridget O'Donnell

China's economy grew 6.9 percent in 2017, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday. That was higher than the official target of 6.5 percent.

It's also a slight uptick from a year ago, when the country's gross domestic product (GDP) was announced to have grown 6.7 percent in 2016, the lowest figure in decades. China's GDP growth of 6.9 percent in 2015, meanwhile, marked the first time the rate had dipped below seven percent in 25 years.

Chart via Quartz

While the growth is indeed promising and indicative of a recent economic rebound, a few experts have raised doubts about the NBS' official numbers.

As the New York Times notes, China's quarterly growth numbers are "suspciously smooth," with outside economists often producing figures lower than those that are officially announced. Some claim that the reported figures innaccurately reflect the true extent of China's recent downturn.

But it works both ways. As the Financial Times reports, the data announced yesterday likely understate how sharp the economic recovery was in 2017, since numbers released in previous years masked what appears to have been a recent economic slump. According to the FT, "faked data" helped downplay just how weak northern China's economy was from 2012 to 2016.

Don't believe the figures are fraudulent? Just ask some of the number crunchers themselves. Several provincial governments in recent weeks have 'fessed up to fabricating figures between 2011 and 2016.

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