CityReads│Asylum Seekers Are Not a “Burden”

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Asylum Seekers Are Not a “Burden”

Migrants and refugees are good for economies.

Hippolyte d'Albis, Ekrame Boubtane and Dramane Coulibaly, Macroeconomic evidence suggests that asylum seekers are not a ''burden'' for Western, Science Advances, 4 (6), DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0883

source:http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/4/6/eaaq0883.full.pdf

Picture: man works at a train-repair facility in Germany, where more than one million refugees and migrants arrived in 2015–16.Credit: Thomas Trutschel/Getty

Wars in Syria and in the Middle East in general have caused a major humanitarian crisis. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported that there were more displaced persons in 2015 than in any year since the Second World War. Europe alone received more than 1 million asylum applications, a situation widely described as a “migrant crisis.” Refugees are generally considered a burden to the host country. Is it true?  

D’Albis at the Paris School of Economics, CNRS, and his team relied on a mathematical model that uses yearly economic indicators to analyze the effects of the influxes of immigrants on the host country, based on an analysis of 30 years of data from 15 countries in Western Europe. The study was published in Science Advances on 20 June.

The study examines effects on host countries’ economic performance, as measured using gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate, and public finances. They use annual statistical data from 15 Western European countries from 1985 to 2015. The selected countries are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Portugal, and the UK. The European countries that we consider receive most of the asylum applications in Europe (89% in 2015).

This research attempts to quantify the effects of inflows of asylum seekers on the economies of Western Europe. The researchers looked separately at the effects of migrants — who are legally allowed to settle in a country — and asylum seekers who reside temporarily in a nation while their applications for refugee status are processed.

Many of the asylum seekers included in the study were those who fled the war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and those who have come more recently from Syria. Certain countries (such as Austria and Sweden) have high flows of asylum seekers that are closely correlated with the net flows of migrants, whereas in other countries (such as Spain and Portugal), the flow of asylum seekers is much lower than the net flow of migrants. For a subset of countries, flows of asylum seekers peaked in the early 1990s because of the war in former Yugoslavia. More recently, the war in Syria induced a large increase in flows to certain countries but hardly altered flows to other nations.

The results show that refugees and migrants searching for safe havens and opportunities benefit their host nations’ economies within five years of arrival.  The influx of migrants have positive effects on European economies: They significantly increase per capita GDP, reduce unemployment, and improve the balance of public finances; the additional public expenditures, which is usually referred to as the “refugee burden,” is more than outweighed by the increase in tax revenues.

The model suggests that within two years of an influx of migrants, unemployment rates drop significantly and economic health increases. Those effects are likely down to migrants increasing market demand, providing services, adding jobs and paying taxes. The study showed this economic activity far outweighs governmental costs of newcomers — that may be partly explained by the fact that immigrants tend to be young and middle-aged adults who are less reliant on state benefits than are older people.

Asylum seekers also benefit economies, but their effects take longer to transpire and the boon is less obvious. An inflow of asylum seekers takes longer to significantly affect the economy; in particular, significant positive effects on GDP are observed from 3 to 7 years. Unlike migrants, people seeking refuge often face restrictions on working, and must move to another country if their applications for permanent residency are denied.

Soon after a spike in migration, the overall strength and sustainability of the country’s economy improves and unemployment rates drop. Its conclusions contradict the idea that refugees place an excessive financial burden on a country by sucking up public resources. The alleged migrant crisis currently experienced by Europe is not likely to provoke an economic crisis but might rather be an economic opportunity.

Large flows of asylum seekers into Europe pose many political challenges both within host countries and with respect to the European coordination

of national policies. However, these political challenges may be more easily addressed if the cliché that international migration is associated with economic “burden” can be dispelled.

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