美联储措辞微调 下半年政策搭配引猜想 Fed H2 policy mix raises concerns

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美联储措辞微调 下半年政策搭配引猜想  

Fed H2 policy mix raises concerns

经过两天的讨论，美联储在北京时间27日凌晨公布的声明中大致维持了此前的政策承诺，但在一些措辞上作出了微调。相较于前次会议，美联储更明显地表达了对疲弱通胀水平的关注，同时将进行资产负债表正常化的启动时间由“今年”改为“相对较快”。

　　对于这一政策声明，业界有着不同看法，先加息还是先缩减资产负债表（下称“缩表”）？美元多空对决的走势也显露出投资者在这一问题上的迟疑：政策声明公布后，美元汇率快速下滑至一年多低位，随后小幅反弹。

　　美联储微调措辞 分析师看出“鸽派”意味

　　根据美联储的政策声明，联邦基金利率目标区间仍将被维持在1%至1.25%的水平不变。美联储同时表示，如果美国经济增长符合预期，将很快开始“缩表”。声明还称，预计年通胀率将在短期内保持在低于2%的目标水平，经济前景的短期风险看来大致均衡，但联邦公开市场委员会成员正密切关注通胀发展。

　　在写给上证报记者的一封邮件中，Naroff经济咨询公司首席经济学家Joel Naroff分析称，更多迹象表明，“缩表”正在到来。他预计，美联储将在11月的政策会议上正式宣布这一决定。而9月会议不太可能宣布加息，除非“工资通胀”出现加速，正式加息时间将在12月。

　　嘉盛集团研究主管James Chen评论说，通胀方面，声明再度强调整体通胀“低于2%”，但删去了 “一定程度”的表述。而在“缩表”方面，跟上月断言的“今年”有所不同，新声明表示正常化将“相对较快”启动。整体来看，语义微妙调整加之货币政策不变对市场已然“鸽派”的政策展望基本无影响。很明显，此次声明不仅全无“鹰派”意外，对资产负债表正常化时间也无清晰确认。声明发布后，其“鸽派”意味立刻对美元和黄金产生影响。

　　交易数据显示，美股三大指数跟随政策声明走高，并齐步创下收盘新高，纽约期金价格触及6周高位。美元指数起初从日内高位94.2376下探93.4下方，北京时间27日午间还一度跌至93.15，为去年6月以来最低位，但此后美元指数小幅反弹。

　　北京时间18时，美元指数报93.5746，涨幅0.2%。纽约近月期金价格报每盎司1261.1美元，涨幅0.94%。同一时间段，英国及德国股市小幅下滑，法国CAC40指数上扬0.4%。而当日稍早收盘的亚太市场主要股指普遍上扬。

　　政策搭配引猜想 美元短期或延续弱势

　　尽管美元指数小幅反弹，美联储下半年政策搭配的不确定性依旧被业内人士视作美元面临的阻碍。

　　工银国际首席经济学家程实认为，现阶段加速加息的作用无法由“缩表”取代，“先加息，后‘缩表’”依然是最合理的政策搭配。

　　究其原因，第一，与加息相似，“缩表”操作同样会直接干预市场利率。简单地以“缩表”取代加息，并不能减少货币紧缩的负面影响。较之于加息，这一影响更加难以预测和控制。第二，与加息不同，“缩表”操作还会进一步压低美国原已低迷的自然利率。这将普遍削弱金融机构的盈利能力，导致其难以积累充足的缓冲资本，从而动摇美国金融系统的稳定性。因此，在现阶段以“缩表”取代加息，将可能引致沉重的政策成本。

　　程实还指出，会议声明对通胀疲弱和“缩表”操作的表述，表明“变”与“不变”将交汇于未来的加息路径之中。美元指数有望中短期延续弱势，并在短期经济指标涨跌互现中加剧振荡。美股市场风险继续积累，未来市场情绪逆转引发的估值调整将进一步扩大。

　　不过，新兴市场货币似乎能够从中受益。富拓外汇（FXTM）市场研究副总裁Jameel Ahmad认为，真正支撑人民币等新兴市场货币的是美联储未能就下一次加息时间表达足够坚定的立场。这说明美联储的态度发生转变，此前美联储决策者所释放出的信息都指向在未来几个月内加息至少一次，但市场对此的信心快速滑落，这将无助于支持买入下滑中的美元。

　　“然而这对新兴市场货币来说是个利好消息，我们预计像中国这样的新兴市场国家将受益于此。”他表示。

The US Federal Reserve basically remained unchanged of its policy in the new statement released on July 27 early morning (Beijing time) after two days of meeting, but only made some adjustments. Compared with the previous meeting, the Fed expressed more concern on weak inflation in latest statement. It indicated that it will implement its balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon”, while the previous said the time was “this year”.

The industry has different views on the statement. Whether the Fed will first raise interest rates or unwind its balance sheet? The movements also indicate investors’ concern on the issue. Immediately after the statement came out, the US exchange rate fell to over one-year low, but recovered slightly afterwards.

Analyst see dovish signals in slightly-adjusted statement

According to the statement, the Fed benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at 1-1.25 percent. The Fed also noted that it will soon shrink its balance sheet provided that the economy evolves broadly as expected. It said that overall inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In an email to the Shanghai Securities News, Naroff Economic Advisors chief economist Joel Naroff analyzed that more signs are showing that balance sheet unwinding is coming. He expected that the Fed will announce the decision at the November policy meeting; while the Fed is likely to announce an interest rates lift in December instead of September unless inflation in wages expands at a faster pace.

Gain Capital research director James Chen commented that the statement again stressed that “overall inflation is running below 2 percent”, while deleting the “somewhat”. Different from the expression “this year” in last month’s statement, the new statement said that the Fed will begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program “relatively soon”. On the whole, the subtle adjustment and consistency in monetary policy have no impact on the market’s dovish policy outlook. Obviously, there is any hawkish signal in the statement, and the time for the balance sheet normalization program is not clarified. The dovish signals after the statement release immediately impact the US dollar and gold.

Trading data shows that all the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes went higher following the statement, and all settled at new highs. The New York gold futures hit 6-week high. The US dollar index fell below 93.4 from the intra-day high of 94.2376. It even declined to 93.15 at July 27 noon Beijing time, the lowest level since last June, but rebounded slightly later.

At 18:00 July 27 Beijing time, the US dollar index recorded 93.5746, an increase of 0.2 percent. New York near-month gold future moved up 0.94 percent to 1,261.1 US dollars per ounce. In the same period, the British and German stock markets dipped down; while the French CAC 40 index edged up 0.4 percent. Major markets in the Asia-Pacific region which closed earlier generally went up.

Policy mix raises concern, US dollar likely to remain weak for short run

Despite the slight recovery in the US dollar index, uncertainties of the Fed’s policy mix for the next half of this year are still regarded as barriers of the US dollar.

ICBC International chief economist Cheng Shi believed that what the interest rate hike can do cannot be replaced by the reduction of balance sheet. “Lifting interest rates before cutting balance sheet” is still the most reasonable policy mix.

There are several reasons. Firstly, similar to an interest rates hike, cutting balance sheet can also directly intervene in market interest rates. But by simply using balance sheet reduction to replace interest rates hike, it cannot diminish the negative impacts of monetary tightening. The impacts brought by cutting balance sheet are more difficult to predict and control. Secondly, different from balance sheet reduction, an interest rates hike will further weigh down the natural interest rate which is already low enough. This will impair financing institutions’ profitability, making them hard accumulate sufficient capital cushion and thus shaking the stability of the US financial system. Therefore, if using balance sheet reduction to replace an interest rates hike, it may take heavy policy cost.

Cheng also pointed out that the US dollar index is expected to remain weak for the short and medium run, and see shaper volatility amid ups and downs of economic indicators. Risks in the US stock market will continue to accumulate. Adjustment in valuation brought by a reversion in market sentiment will further intensify.

However, currencies in emerging markets are likely to benefit from it. FXTM vice-president Jameel Ahmad believed that what really supports the Chinese yuan and other emerging market currencies is that the Fed did not make solid stance for when it will raise interest rates next time. This indicates a change of the Fed’s attitude. Previously, all signals from Fed policy-makers pointed out at least one interest rates hike in the coming few months. But the market confidence has weakened rapidly.

“However, this is a good news for emerging markets. We expect emerging markets, like China, will benefit from this,” said Ahmad.

Source: Xinhua Finance Agency 丨Shanghai Securities News

Translated by  Coral Zhong