人民币汇率升破6.73关口 市场继续看涨 RMB rise above 6.73 against USD
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人民币汇率升破6.73关口 市场继续看涨
RMB rise above 6.73 against USD
人民币已连续3个月对美元强势走升，市场看涨人民币汇率的热情高涨。
在这样的趋势下，企业结汇意愿也水涨船高。“之前人民币汇率在6.75的时候，老板还有些犹豫，可是看到人民币汇率势如破竹，突破一个个关键点位，就毫不犹豫要求赶紧结汇，不敢再承担外汇敞口风险了。”一家公司的财务人员告诉记者。
大行交易员也表示，远期结售汇已经连续3个月出现顺差，结汇意愿稳中有升。
7月以来，人民币汇率累计上涨506个基点。31日，人民币对美元中间价调升90个基点，报6.7283，为去年10月14日以来新高，当月累计调升461个基点。
昨日开盘后，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双跳涨近百点，在6.72—6.73区间震荡。截至当日16:30，在岸人民币对美元报6.7290，收涨139个基点，创逾9个月以来的新高。
“人民币对美元的升值，得益于美元连续3个月跳水下跌，这是2014年以来首次出现连续3个月人民币对美元升值。”外汇分析师李刘阳对记者表示。
“总体上人民币对美元双边汇率的波动，将大于对一篮子货币指数的波动。”李刘阳表示，在近日人民币汇率强势上涨带动下，人民币对一篮子货币的指数也呈现稳中有升的态势。
尽管外汇交易中心公布的数据显示，7月28日CFETS人民币汇率指数报92.74，较前一周略降0.17%，但据李刘阳测算，31日CFETS人民币汇率指数为92.76，较上周五企稳回升。
民生银行高级研究员应习文认为，美国二季度GDP数据不及预期，致使四季度美联储加息预期概率下降，进一步促使美元保持弱势。
综合来看，受访专家一致认为，美元指数长期难言乐观，人民币汇率借势上行，触及6.7或已为期不远。
德国商业银行亚洲高级经济学家周浩认为，伴随美元持续走弱，人民币对美元已突破多个关键点位，美元指数短期不乐观，预计人民币汇率很有可能触及6.7。
“后续美元短期可能会有反弹，但长期仍看跌。因此，人民币汇率长期仍会上涨，短期可能会出现双向波动。”李刘阳表示，从月K线上看，人民币对美元汇率的强支撑在6.4。目前突破6.75之后，人民币对美元可能会很快升破6.70，之后可能会随美元的反弹而双向波动。
应习文也判断，人民币对美元汇率仍将略偏强势，未来人民币对美元汇率有较大概率在6.7至6.75之间双向波动。
考虑到美元指数可能继续低位震荡、中国经济数据稳中向好、监管部门针对外汇和资本流动的宏观微观审慎监管持续强化，未来人民币对美元汇率仍将略偏强势。
The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar for three consecutive months. The market is bullish for the RMB exchange rate.
In such a trend, enterprises are more willing in settlement of exchange. “When the RMB exchange rate came at 6.75 against the US dollar, our boss was still hesitated. When seeing it rise continuously, he immediately asked for a settlement and dare not to bear the risk of foreign exchange exposure,” a financial staff from a company told the reporter.
A trader from a large bank also said that future foreign exchange settlement has seen surplus for three consecutive months, indicating the willingness to settlement of exchange is rising steadily.
Since the beginning of July, the RMB exchange rate has risen by 506 basis points against the US dollar. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar raised 90 basis points to 6.7283, a new high since October 14, 2016. The central parity raised a total of 461 basis points in the month.
The RMB exchange rate on both the onshore and offshore markets jumped nearly 100 points after yesterday’s opening, and fluctuated in the range of 6.72-6.73. As of 16:30 July 31, the onshore RMB exchange rate closed up 139 basis points to 6.7290 against the US dollar, a new high in over 9 months.
"The appreciation of the RMB is mainly due to the remarkable depreciation of the depreciate US dollar for three consecutive months. This is the first time that the RMB appreciated against the US dollar for consecutive months since 2014,” said foreign exchange analyst Li Liuyang.
"On the whole, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will fluctuate more drastic than it against a basket of currencies.” Li Liuyang said that driven by the recent strong rally in the RMB exchange rate, the RMB index against a basket of currencies also showed a steady upward trend.
Although data from China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) shows that the CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported 92.74 on July 28, slightly down 0.17 percent over the previous week, Li estimated that the CFETS RMB exchange rate index would steadily rise over last Friday to 92.76 on July 30
Minsheng Bank senior researcher Ying Xiwen believed that the lower-than-expected GDP data of the US in the second quarter reduces the probability of the Fed’s interest rate hike in the fourth quarter, making the US dollar remain weak.
On the whole, all experts surveyed agree that the US dollar index is not optimistic in the long run. The RMB exchange rate may rise. It may not take too long for the RMB exchange rate to reach 6.7 against the US dollar.
Zhou Hao, Asian senior economist with Commerzbank, believed that as the US dollar continues to weaken, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has hit new lows continuously. The US dollar is not optimistic. He expected that the RMB exchange rate may reach 6.7.
"The US dollar may rebound in the short term in the future, but I’m still bearish on it in the long term. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise for a long run. There may be fluctuations in both directions in the short run.” Li Liuyang said that based on the monthly candlestick charts, the strong support of the yuan against the US dollar is 6.4. The yuan against the dollar may soon rise above 6.70. Afterwards, the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate in both directions along with the rebound of the US dollar.
Ying Xiwen also noted that the Chinese yuan will remain slightly stronger than the US against the US dollar. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is very likely to move between 6.7and 6.75 in both directions.
Given that the US dollar index may continue to fluctuate at lows, China's economic data improves steadily and regulators continue to strengthen macro-prudential supervision on r foreign exchange and capital flows, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will continue to strength in the future.
Source: Xinhua Finance Agency 丨Shanghai Securities News
Translated by Coral Zhong