3300点攻坚战即将打响 8月最优配置策略为何？ SSE Composite advances towards 3,300
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3300点攻坚战即将打响 8月最优配置策略为何？
SSE Composite Index advances towards 3,300 points
8月首个交易日，沪指最终报收3292.64点，再度逼近3300点关口。沪指曾在去年11月末与今年4月初两度冲关3300点未果，这一整数点位由此成为近年来沪指震荡过程中的关键阻力位。
通过与前两次沪指冲关3300点的情形进行对比，本轮指数上涨的核心驱动力与整体运行结构发生了新的改变，一方面，资源类周期股成为本轮行情的领涨品种；另一方面，板块、个股之间的分化格局正进一步加剧。
资源股扛起领涨大旗
东方财富Choice数据显示，自今年5月11日沪指见到阶段低点3016.53点以来，资源类周期股始终引领着行情上涨。根据申万行业的分类，5月11日以来，有色金属行业累计涨幅达到29.09%，高居所有行业首位。钢铁行业以24.42%的涨幅位居次席，采掘、化工行业累计涨幅均在10%以上。
剔除次新股，5月11日以来累计涨幅排名前十的个股中有8只隶属周期性行业。其中，方大炭素以228%的累计涨幅称冠A股市场。沧州大化、西水股份涨幅均超过100%，宝泰隆、方大特钢、神火股份等涨幅超过80%。
作为A股市场中极具人气的投资品种，资源股以其容纳资金量大且股性相对活跃的特点吸引了各路资金的关注，其中最具标志性的“煤飞色舞”行情，贯穿了历年的多次指数牛市。
在前两次指数冲关3300点的过程中，去年四季度因机构频频举牌而股价领涨的基建股似乎投机性质过于强烈，特别是在险资举牌行为被监管部门重点监控之后，相关个股股价纷纷见顶。
而在今年1至4月的上涨行情中，个股起初呈现欣欣向荣的普涨格局，其中以白酒、家电等消费白马股的强势表现最为抢眼。但在4月13日情况发生逆转，当时成交最为火热的雄安概念遭遇密集停牌，复牌后个股股价的直线下挫闷杀了大量活跃资金，沪指此后表现一蹶不振，再度与3300点失之交臂。
值得关注的是，8月1日盘中表现出的部分情形似乎与4月13日有所类似。作为本轮行情的领涨品种，方大炭素、宝泰隆在过去两个交易日接连停牌核查，资源类板块顿时陷入了群龙无首的局面，石墨烯、稀土永磁、煤炭、钛白粉等相关个股股价出现明显回落。好在以银行为代表的金融股延续了上涨势头，带动指数向3300点大关逼近。
分化格局持续加剧
“分化”始终是今年以来市场最大的关键词，进入下半年，市场分化格局呈现愈演愈烈之势。本轮指数上涨过程中，板块、个股之间呈现剧烈的分化走势，这是过去两次沪指冲关3300点时未曾出现的。
去年9月27日至11月29日，沪指从最低的2969.13点攀升至3300点附近，在此期间申万一级行业全部录得上涨，上涨个股家数约占总量的82%。
今年1月16日至4月7日，沪指从最低3044.29点再度攀升至3300点附近，其间仅传媒、非银金融、商业贸易三个行业录得1%左右跌幅，上涨个股家数约占58%。
今年5月11日沪指从3016.53点上涨至今，共有6个行业录得下跌，其中纺织服装、传媒、计算机行业跌幅均超过2%，在此期间上涨个股家数占比已降至约49%。
分化格局的持续加剧显示资金在上涨行情中选股正日趋集中，“以大为美”、“以绩优为美”的市场主线正不断强化。对于那些业绩不及预期、基本面恶化、纯概念炒作的个股，资金抛弃的态度坚决。
机构观点分歧激烈
展望后市，机构观点就如同当前市场格局一样分歧激烈，其中业内颇有名望的任泽平与姜超对于下半年的经济形势看法针锋相对。
方正证券任泽平坚决看好下半年的宏观经济，认为7月PMI、PPI、建筑业订单、出口、土地购置、发电、制造业投资延续改善，企业盈利向好，三季度经济数据或继续超预期，硬着陆和繁荣顶点宣告破产，新周期持续验证。
任泽平认为，新周期是理解未来宏观和市场的关键。新周期不是需求U形复苏，而是经济L形下的供给出清，必须重视供给侧改革。新周期的核心是从产能过剩到供给出清、行业集中度提升、“剩者为王”、强者恒强，行业龙头资产负债表持续修复，为新产能周期蓄积力量。
海通证券姜超则认为，本轮经济并非靠需求拉动的新周期，因为从各项需求看都不具备持续回升的动力：上半年出口增速超预期，但7月以来欧美经济先行指标走弱；上半年地产投资超预期，但一线城市房价和地产成交全面萎缩，三、四线房地产的强势难以持续；上半年耐用消费超预期，但主要归功于房价上涨的财富效应和地产销量超预期对相关消费的拉动；从库存周期看，6月的工业产成品库存增速已经从高位连续两月下滑，意味着库存周期已至尾声。
The SSE Composite Index closed at 3,292.64 points on the first trading day of August. It also nearly reached 3,300 points in end-November last year and early-April. It has been a key barrier in the fluctuation of the SSE Composite Index in recent years.
Compared with the above two surges, there are new changes in the core drivers and the overall operation structure of this round of hiking. On the one hand, cyclical resources stocks led this round of surging. On the other hand, different sectors and individual stocks saw differentiated performances.
Resources stocks led the surging
Based on the Choice data of East Money Information Co., Ltd., cyclical resources stocks have been leading the surging since the SSE Composite Index hit a new low of 3,016.53 points on May 11. According to the industrial classification of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the non-ferrous metal sector has surged 29.09 percent since May 11, ranking the first in all sectors. The iron & steel sector ranked the second with an increase of 24.42 percent. The mining and chemical engineering sectors also hiked over 10 percent.
After deducting new shares, eight of the top ten individual stocks in terms of total increases are cyclical stocks. Fangda Carbon New Material Co., Ltd. (600516.SH) leads all A shares with a total increase of 228 percent. Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. (600230.SH) and Xishui Strong Year Co., Ltd. Inner Mongolia (600291.SH) recorded an increase of over 100 percent while Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd. (601011.SH), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co., Ltd. (600507.SH) and Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. (000933.SZ) witnessed a growth of over 80 percent.
As a popular investment object in the A-share market, resources stocks are favored by various capitals thanks to their huge capitals and relatively active trading. The symbolic booming coal and non-ferrous stocks have been active in various bullish runs in recent years.
During the above two surges, the prices of relevant individual infrastructure stocks hit the ceiling after the regulatory authorities curbed the shareholding increases by insurance funds as a result of the speculation by institutes through investing in infrastructure stocks in the fourth quarter of last year.
During the surge from January to April, almost all individual stocks hiked at the beginning. Liquor, household appliance and other consumer stocks saw outstanding performance. However, the situation changed on April 13. Xiong’an concept with booming turnovers suffered trading suspension and the plunging stock prices after trading resumption drove huge active capitals out. The SSE Composite Index has been declining after that and failed to pass 3,300 points again.
It is noteworthy that the trading conditions on Aug. 1 are similar with that of April 13. As leaders in this round of surging, Fangda Carbon New Material and Baotailong New Materials suspended trading for review for two trading days. The resources sector saw no individual stocks with outstanding performance. The prices of relevant individual stocks in the graphene, lanthanon permanent magnet, coal and titanium dioxide sectors plunged. Financial stocks represented by banks maintained the surging trend, driving the SSE Composite Index advancing towards 3,300 points.
Increasingly intensified differentiated performance
“Differentiation” has been the key word in the market since the beginning of the year. The market has become increasingly differentiated in the second half. Different sectors and individual stocks saw different performances in short term in this round of surging, which has not appeared in the above two surges.
The SSE Composite Index hiked from 2,969.13 points to around 3,300 points from Sept. 27 to Nov. 29. All level-I industries of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities hiked and about 82 percent of individual stocks increased.
The SSE Composite Index hiked from 3,044.29 points to around 3,300 points from Jan. 16 to April 7. Only media, non-banking finance and business trade sectors recorded a decrease of about 1 percent. About 58 percent of individual stocks increased.
The SSE Composite Index has been surging from 3,016.53 points on May 11. Six industries saw decreases. The textile, media and media sectors saw a decrease of over 2 percent. About 49 percent of individual stocks increased during the period.
The increasingly differentiated performances are driving capitals to fewer stocks. The market has been focusing on stocks with big size and outstanding performance. Capitals have flown out of individual stocks with less satisfactory performance, worse fundamentals and concept speculations.
Institutes hold different views
Looking into the future, different institutes hold different views. Ren Zeping and Jiang Chao, two well-known insiders, hold different views.
Ren from Founder Securities is optimistic about the macro economy in the second half. Ren believes that the PMI, PPI, construction orders, exports, land acquisition, power generation and manufacturing investment will continue to improve and the profits of enterprises will boom. The economic data for the third quarter may beat the expectation.
Ren believes that the new cycle is the key to understand the future macro economy and market. The new cycle is not a H-shaped recovery of demands but an L-shaped clearing of supplies. It has to pay more attention to the supply-side reform. The core of the new cycle is to clear supplies, enhance the industrial concentration and improve the balance sheet of industrial leaders.
Jiang Chao from Haitong Securities believes that this round of economic growth is not a new cycle driven by demands as various demands have no drivers for continuous recovery. The exports growth beat the expectation in the first half, but the European and U.S. economic indicators weakened in July. The property investment surpassed the expectation, but the housing price and land trading in tier-1 cities shrank and the booming property market in tier-3 and -4 cities are unlikely to continue. The durable goods consumption in the first half beat the expectation, but it was mainly driven by the wealth effect and the property sales. In terms of the inventory cycle, the growth of industrial goods inventory has been declining for two straight months, which means that the inventory cycle is coming to an end.
Source: Xinhua Finance Agency 丨Shanghai Securities News
Translated by Star Zhang