【观点】贝克休斯CEO：我也表个态，反对斯伦贝谢的论调！
来自贝克休斯CEO的不同声音：
上周五，斯伦贝谢公司对石油行业做出了积极的判断。作为世界上最大的油田服务供应商称北美的石油行业已经触底，预计北美不久将出现反弹，对油价持乐观态度，同时声明，九月不再裁员。
斯伦贝谢的观点并不被贝克休斯认同，贝克休斯作为行业的第三大油田服务公司，虽然他们的国际视野是相似的，在未来的半年多的的时间里，贝克的CEO并没有看到像斯伦贝谢所预计的那样。
周二，贝克休斯全球CEO，Martin说：“展望2015年的下半年，我们预计这些不利的动态在北美会持续，我们并不预期业务量的增加，而大宗商品价格依然低迷，加之在加拿大的季节性反弹，可能会抵消部分美国的行业颓废之势。
There are several company-specific differences that may help explain the outlook disagreement.
First, Schlumberger has had a much better 2015 than has Baker Hughes. Schlumberger's quarterly earnings are down just 40% this year, while Baker's quarterly earnings-per-share have fallen from $1.44 to -$0.14. For better or worse, the recent past influences the near-term outlook of most forecasters more than any other single variable.
Second, Schlumberger leverages a high-brow technology portfolio while Baker has more exposure to the brute-force side of the pumping market (ie BJ Services). This mix difference can result in the two CEOs receiving different sets of market signals.
Third, in peak conditions, North America makes up just under 30% of Schlumberger's operating profits vs. about 50% for Baker Hughes. North America is less important to Schlumberger's business, and therefore the two companies analyze the trends differently.
Maybe most importantly, we suspect many within the Baker Hughes organization have what some might call short-timer syndrome. The Halliburton buy-out is expected to close in December. With it will come the exit of Baker Hughes leadership, so one might say that the Baker Hughes team is like a senior in his final semester of college.
Contacts close to the company tell us that Baker Hughes employees in the field seem increasingly disinterested. As evidence, industry sources tell us that recent Baker Hughes bids have come in either extremely high or extremely low relative to the competition in many cases. The sense of ownership, connectedness, and urgency seems to be fading within the organization.
And who can blame them? Halliburton's President reaffirmed his confidence in Halliburton's best in class operating platform in North America this week. Halliburton sees the Baker Hughes takeover as adding a second story on their house - the Halliburton team will act as the foundation. Halliburton is maintaining their organizational structure ahead of the deal, anticipating that they will tuck the Baker assets into their well-oiled machine. This means many Baker Hughes people now see their position as a job not a career.
This short-timer dynamic can impact both a) the market signals getting through to upper management, and b) their interpretation of the same.
It remains to be seen who will be right, bearish Craighead or bullish Kibsgaard. But one thing they can both agree on right now is that the next six months are by no means going to be a walk in the park.
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