Shrinking Cities: Russia, Italy & Turkey-Syria Border

Urbanization is still booming nowadays, many cities are sprawling while many are shrinking. Deindustrialization, depopulation, aging, etc. reflect the negative shrinkage; anti-suburbanization, urban regeneration, and compact city are maybe positive. On December 23, 2017, the Glocal Insights Panel 5: Shrinking Citieswas successfullyheld in MIX-SPACE, to observe and discuss the meaning and reality of “Shrinking city”on international perspective and different respects.

Sergei Khasikov from Russia, Gerardo Semprebon from Italy and Semra Pakdemirli from Turkey shared the diverse faces of shrinking cities / communities in their own countries. Liu Yi, Consulting Director of NEW-ECO DESIGN Co.,Ltd, and Harry den Hartog, Faculty member of Tongji University made wonderful comments as mentors. Dr. Sun Zhe, lecturer from Department Economic Sociology of SUFE, and other live readers also involved in the discussion actively.

Shrinkage of Russia Cities

Sergei Khasikov

Master student, Architecture, Shanghai Jiaotong University

Urban shrinkage represents a major challenge for many cities across the Globe. It is understood as the process of population decline in cities which is the result of different processes such as deindustrialisation, demographic change or natural hazards.

■ Urban shrinkage as a conceptual challenge

 Since the second half of the 20th century, urban shrinkage has become a common pathway of transformation for many large cities across Europe and North America. Population losses have been reported from numerous old-industrial locations throughout Europe and North America, but also from Japan, Australia, Russia, and other regions.

According to a recent study, around 40% of all European urban areas with more than 200 000 inhabitants experienced a loss in population between 1960 and 2005. In Eastern Europe alone, three out of four larger cities were losing population in the early 2000s.

Occurrence of shrinkage is fairly universal, but its determinants are less obvious and do not follow universal patterns.Shrinkage in Detroit is largely a story of ‘white flight'; In Donetsk it is an outcome of demographic change; And in Halle(an der Saale) it is a consequence of massive job-related out-migration. Other places suffer from either deindustrialization or suburbanization, and often all of these challenges merge together.

Combined effects of demographic trends and economic restructuring would result in a structural change in the development of cities. Instead of considering the decline as reversible phenomenon, scientists and public actors started to see it as a structural and durable process. Then, what is shrinkage? Which processes does it entail?

■ Models  

There are various theoretical explanations for the shrinking city phenomenon.

1) Urban development model - based on the Fordist model of industrialization. It suggests that urbanization is a cyclical process and that urban and regional decline will eventually allow for increased growth. (London, UK)

2)Monostructure model - cities that focus too much on one branch of economic growth make themselves vulnerable to rapid decline. (Baikalsk, Russia)

3)Shock therapy model - Especially in Eastern Europe post-socialism, state-owned companies did not survive privatization, leading to plant closures and massive unemployment. (Halle, Gerrmany)

4)Smart decline model- "planning for less—fewer people, fewer buildings, fewer land uses".It is a development method focused on improving quality of life for current residents without taking those residents' needs into account. (Flint, Michigan, USA)

If we wish to understand shrinkage in a specific location, we need to integrate theoretical explanations with historical trajectories, as well as to combine these with a study of the specific impacts caused by shrinkage and to analyze the policy environment in which these processes take place.

■ Shrinkage in Russia

Russia appears to be the most shrinking urban system in the world. The magnitude of the current urban shrinkage is unprecedented. The share of shrinking cities had never reached more than 14% (between 1897 and 1989).

For the last 25 years natural decline of cities population exceeded 8 million people. Among 1137 inhabitants,  population decreased in more than 800 cities decreased, near 200 cities have lost more than a quarter of the population. In the ranking of most shrinking cities based on UN report 11 cities out of 28 are Russian.

The location of shrinking cities reproduces the geographical pattern of the regional demographic differentiation. Cities tend to shrink in shrinking regions and to grow in growing regions on average, as it can be observed in Europe.

Two global trends in the reduction of the population were formed for the time period since 1989 to 2002:

1)  Along the longitude axis there is a clearly visible difference between the sparsely populated and declining East regions and growing regions of the West. Migration of the educated young adults occurred due to a lack of public goods (security, housing, education, communications, etc.) mainly caused by the inequality of the regions.

2)Along the latitude axis can be observed opposite situation between Southern and Northern regions. Fertility rates in the North are comparable to most European countries, while in the Caucasus that figure is much higher.

Nevertheless, there are exceptions in these global trends: Moscow is growing much faster than its neighbors and oil and gas basins regions appeared to be very attractive.

■ Shrinking Cities in Russia

Urban shrinkage is dominant nowadays in Russia, but has different meanings as to why a city loses population. Three types of shrinkage can be identified based on a crossing of the natural balance and net migration. 

1) Shrinking cities are those in which natural balance and net migration are both negative. Their number has grown continuously since 1991, from 15% of all cities to nearly 50% in 2010.

2) Drifting cities are cities losing population because of net out-migrations. Their natural balances are positive, but non compensated by the drift of people migrating out of the city. They represent less than 10% of total cities during the two decades. This small share of drifting cities shows that the main cause of shrinkage during the 1990s and 2000s was not migration, but a simultaneous lack of births and high mortality.

3) Finally, Depopulating cities are losing population because their positive net migration is not sufficient to compensate a negative natural balance. The relative evolution of this category of cities is opposed to that of drifting cities. They were a minority of 10% in 1991 but multiplied their proportion by four in ten years, after representing 15% in 2010.

■ What causes Urban Shrinkage

By the end of 90-ies, according to Rosstat, Russian industry has been cut in half compared to 1990, while real wages were cut by 3 times. That significantly influenced mortality and fertility decline in the cities. The decline in production and real incomes led to a natural decline of citizens, and these indicators are positively correlated. 

Most revealing situation was observed in the European part of Russia and Urals: the more production reduced, the more the population city lost and vice versa. Among central regions of Russia, record holds Ivanovo region, which lost 75% industry and 18% of the urban population. At the same time Belgorod region, where production increased in 2.5 times in comparison with 1990, showed 21% growth of urban population.

■ What is the future of Russian cities?

Due to the high oil prices in 2000-ies, the negative trends in the development of Russian cities slowed down. In some cities of Far North and Far East there appears to be even slight population growth in the last few years.

Extrapolation of data on the short and medium term shows that migration from small towns to large cities will continue.

Russia is facing a threat of depopulation. It is hardly possible to maintain existing density of the population "on our own" on the horizon of present generation life. As a result, it can cause huge social and economic problems related to the extinction of many settlements.

So what tools do we have to mitigate shrinkage of cities?

1)Existence of a large agglomeration in a region is frequently associated with economic success. Coordination of policies at all administrative levels should be achieved, in order to create regional polycentric networks articulated around engine-cities. Those cities could then stimulate the growth of less dynamic cities and make it possible for less competitive cities to shrink "smartly". This policy would also avoid the polarization of the whole country around Moscow.

2)In search of a solution the Russian Government is developing various projects including replacement of 83 subjects to 20 urban agglomerations.

Main goal of that project is concentration of limited resources at key points, because, according to the reformers, developing of small towns is meaningless.

3) To maintain current population Russia should provide a huge influx of migrants - more than 12% of the current population of the country.

In this aspect Russia is very similar to Germany, the third country in the world by the number of accepted migrants.

Just as Germany needed workers in addition to the integration of millions of ethnic Germans after the Second World War, Russia takes millions ethnic Russians and migrants of other nationalities.

Therefore, it seems to be not so many alternatives for demographic prospects in Russia: either accepting shrinkage of cities and depopulation, or attracting international migrants and creating agglomerations. But second scenario looks problematic in a society unprepared for such a social and ethno-cultural upheaval.

■ Dream of Baikalsk: bright future for depressive city

We can see a different case on microscale approach. We mentioned Baikalsk, this is a mono-city, the city is by the Lake Baikal. Actually the small town is very good example of how the people can change their way to live.There was a huge factory which produce paper, it's very polluted industry. It's just located by the shore of Baikal. So the government close it in 2009. Because of the closure, people lost their jobs, they had to leave.

So what is the decision? As you know now culture and symbol is a easy way to change the city lives. Many of you know the Bilbao Effect. In a small city, one culture space give the way we live, but it's very expensive, the project by Frank Gehry. So here we have a kind of little bit different situation. Baikalsk, of course, But it has huge plan. It's very good constructed and just remained. Here are some pictures of the vision. First is the visitor center. Second is nature park of self purification. Third is the heritage park area.

Also there are factory museum,Baikal museum, Art park"Rethinking Garbage". All of them  would be situated in the industrial area. The factory museum tell rich history, contemporary artists they should be from garbage, quite symbolic. Also some pictures from future projects. It could be site for cultural events, new pier, new embankment. 

Q & A

Q：You mentioned urban shrinkage and urban sprawl in Russia. But the problem is not just about shrinking of the city but also the linkage between cities which is broken. The small cities do not build good linkages between themselves and the big ones. In that direction, do you have any ideas？

A： I mentioned about government projects. Russia had 83 projects, so the linkage is about from subjects to 20 bigger urbanagglomerations. These actually can help but are very expensive and hard to implement and may cause social tensions. Hence there are possibilities but we need more studies.

From the Rail Yard to the New City——Shrinking Strategies of Milan's Urban Region

Gerardo Semprebon

Architect, PhD candidate, Shanghai Jiaotong University and Politecnico di Milano

In 2004 there has been a famous exhibition in Milan's Triennale Palace entitled "La città Infinita," that means the end-less city. In this exhibition the authors explained how the city and small centers expanded melting together and generating what Koolhaas would call a generic environment.

We see how the city lost its borders, becoming a continuous urban region connecting Turin with Venice.

Milan's urban area is part of one of the densest area in Europe, together with the Ruhr area and some parts of England. The population whether considering the municipality or the metropolitan area is growing, and will grow in the future as well.

Two assumptions: first, the population growth trend will continue in the future; second, despite its small size in terms of municipality surface, Milan has still many voids inside its perimeter. Most of them are neglected places resulting from the dismission of former industrial areas, closed to any public use, perceived as cuts and injuries inside the fabric, such for instance the former Rail Yard system. In order to contrast the sprawling and change its development model, Milan is considering the shrinkage as a possible strategy, shifting from a monocentric to a polycentric development model in which Milan is the main center, but not the only one. Shrinking means also contrasting urban sprawl, by looking inside the urban fabric and searching for opportunities among derelict areas following the so-called phenomenon of "to build in the built", which represents a good metaphor to describe how Milan is experiencing phenomena of shrinkage, looking at the physical environment as well as at the historical layering and meanings.

Aiming to re-balance the relationship between the center and the suburbs, the railyards system represents the first challenge to trigger. Why are the railyards so important? 1. Urgency of starting a transformation process. 2. They are located in strategic positions and can work at different scales. 3. They allow thinking to a holistic vision through long-term global scenarios for the future development.

We will consider:

- the railyards in the historic development model.

- the shifting from a radiocentric model to a polycentric one.

- the role of the railyards.

- the current conditions of the railyards.

- the scenarios for the railyards' transformation

We see the main historical thresholds and we understand that Milan developed just expanding towards the surrounding without taking one specific direction.During the Unification years,Milan was still a walled city. In that period the railyard system appears. The most important changes took place in the last decades, and particularly after WWII.

This is the development model of Milan till nowadays. Concentric expansion towards the borders, destroying and overcoming the walls. 360 degrees radial development directions, because of the absence of natural obstacles and because Milan is a crossroad between different points, such as Rome, Paris, Germany…

The railyards appeared at the end of the XIX century, when Milan was the industrial capital of Italy. In 1912 the Pavia-Masera Plan set radical changes in the railway system, for example, the central station.

1931 - Albertini Masterplan. The railway system is within the city. A new barrier cutting the fabric and generating fragments.So, to finish our excursus, currently we are in this condition of the endless city.

Recently Milan adopted the PGT. This plan set a new model for the city, shifting from the radiocentric one to the polycentric one.Here we see some of the centers which the city want to develop to rebalance the relationship between the geometrical center and the suburbs.But Milan is also thinking at a larger scale, considering the whole region and the other smaller cities as other nucleus.The first step is to consider the railyards as an opportunity for a long-term development strategies.

There are 7 dismissed railyards, with a total surface of 1.2 million square meters, among which the biggest is Scalo Farini with 674.460 square meters.The 7 Rail Yards are huge neglected enclosed areas inglobated in the urban tissue. Currently, these voids represent mutilations within the continuity fabric, generating separations and hosting illegal phenomena.Here we see each of these railyards. Basically, they are linear areas, splitting the different sides of the city.

Moreover, if we look inside, we discover that they are not empty. In San Cristoforo we can find the un-fished railway station by Aldo Rossi. Phenomena of re-naturalization are occurring, as well as degradation ones, and improper uses that require clean-up procedures, are intended to be available back to the population.

In 2005 the Municipal Administration (Comune di Milano) together with the Regional Government (Regione Lombardia) and the Railway Company (Ferrovie dello Stato) started a consultation process that has recently blossomed into a General Agreement about purposes to fulfill, methodologies to adopt, policies involved and scenarios of transformations.

Among the general purposes we find: strategic vision, ecological value, available greenery, services mix, sustainable neighborhoods, social housing, social mix, the circle line, interchange stations, temporary uses, policies, public coordination, competition processes, public debate, urban functions, quick arrangements.

The general agreement set some numbers, such as the minimum green area, more than half. The reuse of the Rail Yards is an action of environmental repairing. 

Here we see the main actions established by the agreement. the Circle Line and the multiscalar connections. macro connections. micro connections. Ecological infrastructure. green connections. social cohesion. Urban quality complexity and integration innovation and sustainability.

Scenarios. In 2017 a consultation called "From the Rail Yards the New City" has been launched, sponsored by FS Urban System, involving: Stefano Boeri (SBA Office), Francine Marie Jeanne Houben (Mecanoo), Benedetta Tagliabue (EMBT), Ma Yansong (MAD Architects), Cino Zucchi (CZA). These architectural Studios have elaborated new scenarios for the future of these areas, which have been presented in an exhibition organized during the Design Week 2017 in April.

Here we see the different proposals.

1) Team Boeri proposed a project or urban reforestation for the Milan of the future. Fiume Verde aims to transform the 90% of the seven rail yards into uninterrupted parks, gardens, woods, oasis and fruit gardens for communal uses - linked together by green cycle paths realized on rail trail lines. The remaining 10% could be employed to build high density urban areas that will host activities now missed in Milan: especially young professional housings and student hotels, but also cultural services and people support areas (libraries, clinics, kindergartens), social and market housing;

2) Team Mecanoo imagined the seven rail yards as catalysts for sustainable living. Seven mobility hubs where different transport means and systems (train, subway, tram, bus, car sharing, and bicycle) meet, and linked to other hubs both within the city and in the entire region;

3) the project by EMBT focuses on water as element aimed to unify and regenerate the seven sites each of which, nevertheless, retains its identity and distinct vocation;

4) In the project Historical Future: Milan Reborn, MAD imagined Milan as a city made of connections; a sort of eco-system based on sustainable mobility; from smaller networks-such as cycle lanes, footpaths, and pedestrian zones-to large infrastructural networks. Through a public transport strategy, both networks integrate to create five micro-systems, based on different spatial concepts, called "City of Connections", "City of Green", "City of Living", "City of Culture", and "City of Resources";

5) the project developed by CZA consider public open space as the most effective means to influence the urban fabric. So, green spaces should not be considered urban elements or services like any other, but rather as tools aimed to properly design a city.

The comparison between the different visions for Scalo Farini：Tagliabue with expansion of the city, The Green River with the Mosque; Mecanoo with his interconnection center, Zucchi defined his garden with new urban facades, rigid towards the city and soft towards the garden, and MAD who reused the existing building as the main core.

Milan is changing very rapidly. The railyards represent a huge occasion to start a more complex process targeted to: - contrast the sprawling (endless city) - set a polycentric model of development，by shrinking towards the crucial points given by the overlapping of different networks.

Q & A

Q：Are there any of the railyards that have already been rebuilt, or justin planning?  In China, like Shanghai and Beijing, the situation is similar to Milan where cities are endless - they grow bigger and bigger. The plans have a exciting vision. Are there any troubles or difficulties, like the valueof land or sth.?

A：They are still in planning. Right now they have disagreements on the plans. So the idea is to start with competition,seta development agency that can coordinate. Some small sites of the railyards are working right now but they belong to different properties. So they had to connect with the system as well. Because population cannot get inside the yards,they only knowthe bordersof the areas. Architects were asked to suggest what could happen. Together with the development agency, they can balance the process and the function, they can think of the whole urban pattern and to solve different problems of the city,which is what I mean the "holistic vision".

Q： In city center of Shanghai, the population is also shrinking. Nowadays inside ring of Metro Line 4, there are less people than five or ten years ago - I guess maybe only 5% percent of the total population is inside the ring. What about the case of Milan? Is the whole population of Milan shrinking or is just deconcentrating？

A： It is growing after the financial crisis actually. If we look at the municipality, it has 1.3 million people. If we consider the metropolitan area, it has 3 million people. The population met a low point in 2011, but now it is increasing again. The polycentric development model process should also include small towns outside Milan. Now with the recent EXPO area, they are going to put the new university campus here,  to make this place attractive, the new financial and innovation district is also in process spot by spot. The good thing ofthe railyardsis that they can integrate with the development,  be aware of the balance of what the city needs.

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Shrinking Communities——

Syrian Refugee Issue in Turkey

Semra Pakdemirli

Master student, Architecture, Shanghai Jiaotong University

As can be seen clearly, the war started in Syria at 2011, does not only affect Syria. Right now because of Turkey’s humanitarian “Open Door Policy” to Syrians, Turkey holds the second biggest Syrian population on Earth after Syria itself, with around 3.4 million registered refugees according to UN reports. Open Door Policy allows any Syrian who successfully reaches to the borders of Turkey, to enter. 

Distribution of Syrian refugees (Source: UNHCR)

Syrian refugee growth curve in Turkey (Source: UNHCR)

Very first predictions about the Syrian war was that it was going to be over within a year. Therefore, first laws for Syrians weren’t determined for their permanent residence and they are considered under “Temporary Protection Regulations”, which is why help was not enough, especially in maintaining enough shelter or jobs. But it has been more than 6 years now since the war has begun.

Syrian refugees camps in Turkey

Currently 70% of refugees are women and children, and 90% are living out of camps in urban and peri-urban areas. There have been financial aids, but not enough, and around USD 30 per person per month, which increased women giving birth ratios. Since the war has started, Turkey spent more than USD 30 billion from its own resources.

Everyone is complaining about Syrians. People are wondering why they came to Turkey. If I were one of them, I would never leave my country, stay there, and defend it. Syrians are cowards, which is why they left. Unlike other countries, our country accepts them. We are doing favor for them, but the return is not good for us.

——Turkish man(20), Sultanbeyli, Istanbul

Provincial Breakdown of Refugees and Asylum-Seekers in Turkey(Source: UNHCR)

Cities with biggest Syrian clusters are the cities which are close to Syrian border at southern Turkey, plus the top 3 metropolitan cities which are Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. At the moment Istanbul holds the biggest Syrian population of them all with more than half a million, according to TUIK data. There are several reasons for families whom had been settled to camps in border cities, to leave these camps and migrate to Istanbul such as; movement freedom of a metropolitan city, possible economic and social advantages, wider shelter options, better education opportunities, wider options for work. According to TUIK surveys, more than half(54.8%) had settled for wider job opportunities.

Imagine you are migrating to another country escaping from a war, naturally you did not enter with a passport, didn’t book a house, or arrange a job. What would you do at first if you are not even able to speak this country’s language? Of course you would find others in the same situation with you，which is what is happening right now. Syrians are clustered in some districts more than others, and started to form their communities in Istanbul. Bagcilar, Fatih, Kucukcekmece and Sultangazi holds the biggest populations. 

Distribution of Syrian refugees in Istanbul

It is harder to live here, but I am much happier. Because we have been encountering a more respectful approach in Turkey compared to other countries. I am not planning to migrate to another country, but one day I will go back to Syria for sure. I wish I had working rights and employers would pay us higher. We wish people here would treat us better and help us more. Because we do not take anything. Also we wish landlords were more merciful on us and follow and take (as money) only what is written on the contract.

——Abo bashar(55), Ümraniye, Istanbul

TUIK have done surveys to Syrians on these 4 districts, and some appealing results suggest that, almost 50% lives in a house which has more than one family. Average number in 1 family is 6 people. This means houses are rented by 15-20 Syrians at once. Education levels show that only around 9% are college or technically educated, which means they can only perform low class jobs. Looking at children, on 75% are on school age but not registered to any school and biggest reason for it seems like families need these children to work(26.6%). Other reasons include cannot pay education bills(20.3%), not enough place in school(14.1%), etc. Problem statistics shows that their biggest issues are being unemployed(30.4%), cannot speak Turkish(17.4%), poverty(13.0%), labor exploitation(12.2%) ,and discrimination(11.3%). More than 20% are not even registered to authorities, which is a must for having certain rights, such as residence, employment, education or health.

There are so many beggar women and children here. Most of these women are pregnant, we feel sorry for them. Once I asked if there was anything I could do for them, but they said “No”… As I’ve heard, rental market had increased unbelievably. They are living 15 people under one roof. Every family pays separately. Because of hunger and poverty, they are stealing.

——Turkish citizen(52), Bağcılar, Istanbul

I’ve learned how to register to police in Istanbul, via social media. I didn’t have any troubles learning about the procedures, but it wasn’t easy to follow through registration. Because my landlord didn’t provide me the necessary documentation for it at the beginning. We need to get registered to maintain our basic rights. However most of us don’t have enough information about it. I was lucky, because i have the ability to reach social media.

——Modammad(27), Ümraniye, Istanbul

The most appealing of all districts is the belt of Yusufpasa – Topkapi (Under Fatih district), which locals now call it “Little Syria”. Now almost became Syrian town with its Arabic signs, advertisements and Syrian restaurants everywhere. Municipality even put a new law on track for this area “Every shop has to have Turkish writings too”. Of course some do not want to listen, Syrians employ Syrians for their shops, since their customers are also Syrians. Old residents which was a Turkish community, slowly moved out of their shops and restaurants, leaving their places to Syrians. 

"Little Syria" in Istanbul, some shops follow the laws while some are not.

Realtors of this district suggested that 80% of shops are now owned by Syrians. Local shop owners are disturbed by this. Increased rental prices made many Turkish shops shut down or move out. It caused decrease in employment. Syrians employ Syrians for their shops, since their customers are also Syrians. Turkish lost their jobs. But why realtors are also sad about this? Rental prices have increased, but Syrians do not use realtors. They rent to each other, becoming illegal realtors. Our incomes have also decreased.

I’ve been living in Fatih ever since I was born. After arrival of Syrians, my house rent has increased. Lots of people are complaining about this. There was a house I wished to purchase and it was around 260 000 rmb. Now the price came up to 600 000 rmb, and I can not buy it anymore. On the other hand, Turkish shop owners seem to be happy with Syrians, since for them it means more customers.

——Turkish woman(70), Fatih, Istanbul

As mentioned earlier, Turkey’s Open Door Policy and lacking laws towards the issue with low aid caused lack in basic needs of these refugees. But they need money and shelter! Need of money creates a huge illegal workforce which are ready to comply with salary under minimum wage limits. Then why would employers use legal Turkish employees? Turkish are being fired for illegal Syrian workforce every day, which ends up with Turkish people losing their houses in the end. When need of shelter comes together with the need of money, this is where we start to observe multiple Syrian families coming together to rent a single house. Since the average person per family is around 6 people, multiple families are able to pay rental prices which Turkish are not able to. This increased demand in rental market, therefore increased rental prices. Since renting a house became a better investment, this phenomena even increased house overall sale prices. Again by rental or by sale, this also lead Turkish lose their houses, since their jobs did not suddenly start to pay more. Which is forming Syrian communities day by day, finding its way through shrinking Turkish communities.

Causal chain of Syrian Refugees issue in Turkey

Q&A

Q：My question is related to the integration policy in Turkey. What do you think should be implemented to increase social inclusion of Syrians and also encourage Turks to be back to the work force？

A：The government opened Turkish language schools and education centers for Syrians and kept giving ID card registeration service to them. So they are working on it but the efforts are still not enough. Or maybe the government should work with Syrian Friendship Associations as they are more trusted by the Syrians.

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Event planned by Wilda Xie, Ao Song; Recorded by Ao Song, Wilda Xie, Benny Zhang; Translated by Ao Song, Wilda Xie, Benny Zhang; Image Source from Sergei, Gerardo, Semra; Webcasted by Benny Zhang; Photographed by Ao Song; Edited by Han Tu.

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