房价对消费结构升级的影响：机制与实证

《上海财经大学学报》 2022年24卷第2期 页码：61 - 77  online：2022年4月1日

房价对消费结构升级的影响：机制与实证

The Impact of Housing Prices on the Upgrading of Consumption Structure: Mechanism and Evidence

作者（中）：孙豪1, 王泽昊2, 姚健3

作者（英）：Sun Hao1, Wang Zehao2, Yao Jian3

作者单位：1.浙江工商大学 经济学院, 浙江 杭州 310018 2.上海大学 经济学院, 上海 200444 3.山东大学 经济学院, 山东 济南 250100

摘要：促进居民消费结构升级，是满足人民美好生活需要的重要途径。房价上涨不仅影响居民消费水平，还可能冲击居民消费结构升级路径。利用中国35个大中城市面板数据，实证检验了房价对居民消费结构升级的影响机制和效果。研究表明：总体上，房价抑制居民消费结构升级，这种抑制作用在不同消费结构升级阶段、不同级别城市、不同区域存在差异；边际消费倾向是房价影响消费结构升级的中介变量，即房价上涨显著降低居住、交通通信两类消费的边际消费倾向，显著提升食品、家庭设备、医疗保健和文教娱乐四类消费的边际消费倾向。扩大居民消费和促进居民消费结构升级，需要关注房价上涨对不同类别消费的边际消费倾向的异质性影响。研究结论对构建双循环新发展格局和促进居民消费结构升级具有参考价值。

关键词：房价; 消费结构; 边际消费倾向; 中介效应

Summary: Expanding domestic demand is the strategic basis for building a new dual-cycle development pattern. Compared with the previous development strategy, China is currently promoting the construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern that pays more attention to the domestic cycle. The expansion of resident consumption scale and the upgrading of resident consumption structure is an important part of expanding domestic demand. After the transformation of the main contradictions in Chinese society, the focus of research in the field of resident consumption has gradually shifted to the upgrading of resident consumption structure. Promoting the upgrading of resident consumption structure is an important way to meet people’s needs for a better life. The proportion of housing assets in China’s household asset allocation is relatively high. Therefore, the rise of housing prices not only affects the consumption level of residents, but also impacts the upgrading path of resident consumption structure. Using the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China, this paper empirically tests the impact mechanism and effect of housing prices on the upgrading of consumption structure. The results show that: In general, the rise of housing prices inhibits the upgrading of resident consumption structure, and this inhibition varies in different stages of consumption structure upgrading, in different levels of cities, and in different regions. Micro consumption behavior is the micro foundation of macro-economic phenomenon, and macro-economic phenomenon is the macro expression of micro consumption behavior. Exploring the impact mechanism of housing prices on the upgrading of resident consumption structure from the perspective of micro consumption behavior is the key to understanding the upgrading of resident consumption structure. Based on this cognition, the paper explains the impact of housing prices on the upgrading of consumption structure from the perspective of marginal propensity to consume: The marginal propensity to consume is an intermediary variable that housing prices affect the upgrading of consumption structure. That is, the rise of housing prices significantly reduces the marginal propensity to consume of housing, transportation and communication, and significantly promotes the marginal propensity to consume of food, durable goods, medical care, culture, education and entertainment. To expand resident consumption and promote the upgrading of resident consumption structure, we should pay attention to the heterogeneous impact of rising housing prices on the marginal propensity to consume of different types of consumption. The research conclusions of this paper have reference value for constructing a new dual-cycle development pattern and promoting the upgrading of resident consumption structure, and put forward some policy suggestions, such as controlling the excessive growth of housing prices, improving the supply level of basic public services, and improving resident consumption tendency.

Key words: housing prices; consumption structure; marginal propensity to consume; mediation effect

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jsufe.2022.02.005

收稿日期：2021-8-29

基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目“房价上涨对消费结构升级及分化的冲击研究”（71903174）；教育部人文社科重点研究基地浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心课题“经济纾困背景下的消费券国际比较与启示研究”（2020SMYJ09ZC）；浙江工商大学省属高校基本科研业务费项目“基本公共服务对居民消费提升的影响研究”（XR202105）

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