TED深度演讲：哈佛权威教授谈美国人眼中的中国崛起

来源：竖起耳朵听（ID：yingyupa）

如今，中国的崛起势不可挡，将对美国一贯稳定的地位造成冲击。在中国日益强大的今天，美国人如何看待中国的崛起？Graham Allison是哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院首任院长，哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院贝尔福科学与国际事务中心主任、教授。他在TED上做了深度演讲，谈论了美国人眼中的中国崛起。

音频+中英全文（来自TED官网）So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important international challenge the world will face for as far as the eye can see. 

首先我想感谢能有这个机会，来讨论你们职业生涯中最大的国际话题，同时也是众所周知，最重要的，全世界正面临的国际性挑战。

The story, of course, is the rise of China. Never before have so many people risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions. The challenge is the impact of China's rise -- the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian. The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century." Americans have become accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger -- strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are. 

这个话题，毋庸置疑，便是中国的崛起。在此之前从未有如此众多的人，在如此众多的方面，有着如此飞速地进步。随之而来的挑战在于中国崛起所带来的影响——对美国以及国际秩序，所产生的混乱，而美国一直是国际秩序的首要建造者和守卫者。历史学家们将过去的100年称为“美国的世纪”。美国人对自己在各方面所处的顶尖地位，早已习以为常。因此，若是有另一个如同美国一样，力量强大的大国——甚至更大的国家存在。这将对美国人的自我认知造成威胁。

For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry, it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of those ended in war. So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war that became so encompassing, that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war. So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead. 

对这场正在进行的竞争应该采取什么视角，把眼光放大至历史中会很有用。过去500年发生过的16案例，展现崛起力量威胁掌权力量，甚至取而代之。其中12件案例最终导致战争。刚刚过去的11月，我们纪念了那场100周年的战争。这场战争影响之广，以致历史学家创造了一个新的类别：世界大战。在1918年的第11个月的，第11天中的第11个小时，第一次世界大战的枪声开始沉寂，但是两千万人早已在战争中丧生。

I know that this is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. But having taught at Harvard over many years, I've learned that from time to time, it's useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we're all on the same page. The way I do this is, I call a time-out, I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded, of course. So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz. 

我相信在座各位都很熟悉，所以你们应该对中国的崛起有所了解。因此，我接下来想着重讨论中国崛起所带来的影响，对于美国，对于国际秩序，对于战争与和平方面所带来的影响。我在哈佛教书多年的经验告诉我，偶尔有个短暂间隙会很有效，来确认我们的认知是否同步。我将我的检验方式称为“暂停休息”，我给学生们提及测验当然了，是不记分的。所以我们也试试吧，突击小测验。

Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market. At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day? Take a guess -- 25 percent? Fifty? Seventy-five? Ninety. What do you think? Ninety. Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day. Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. What about the numbers? What's your bet? Take a look. Fewer than one in 100 today. And China's president has promised that within the next three years, those last tens of millions will have been raised up above that threshold. So it's a miracle, actually, in our lifetime. Hard to believe. But brute facts are even harder to ignore. A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared, to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States. 

提问：四十年前，1978年，中国向市场进军。那时的中国，十亿人口中有多少比例挣扎在每天仅花2美刀的水平线上呢？猜一下——25%？50%？75%？是90%。你们怎么看？90%。每十人中有九人，每天的花销不到2美刀。2018年，40年之后，这个数字变成多少了呢？你们猜是多少？了解一下，如今每一百人中不到一人。领导人还承诺在未来三年里，最后的那一千万人口，会摆脱那个临界值。因此这可以说是我们有生之年中的一个奇迹。难以置信。然而残忍的事实无法忽视。一个在25年前从未出现在，任何国际会议上的国家，已经崛起，开始去竞争——并且在一些方面超越了美国。

Thus, the challenge that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US, on course for what could be the grandest collision in history. To help us get our minds around this challenge, I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker, I'm going to present a big idea, and I'm going to pose a most consequential question. The great thinker is Thucydides. Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people have trouble pronouncing it. So, let's do it, one, two, three, together: Thucydides. One more time: Thucydides. 

因此，改变世界的挑战在于：貌似无法阻挡的崛起的中国，加速朝着明显不动的占据统治地位的美国走去。这可以说是历史上最大的碰撞交锋。为了帮助大家理解这个挑战，我要向大家介绍一位伟大的思想家。我要在演讲中展示一个宏大的想法，并由此提出最重要的问题。这位思想家名为修昔底德。我知道他的名字很绕口，有些人不太清楚如何发音。所以我们练习一遍，一，二，三，一起：修昔底德。再一次：修昔底德。

So who was Thucydides? He was the father and founder of history. He wrote the first-ever history book. It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War," about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends, "I met a great thinker. And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides." So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece, Thucydides wrote famously: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable." So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance, paranoia, that drug them both to war. 

谁是修昔底德？他是历史学之父，历史学的创立者，他撰写了第一本历史书。这本书名为《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。它讲的是2500年前发生在希腊的战争，所以如果今天什么都没印象你可以给朋友发推特说：“我今天认识了一位伟大的思想家，我甚至可以念他的名字：修昔底德”。关于这场摧毁了古希腊的战争，修昔底德写下了一句著名评论：“正是雅典势力的崛起和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧，使得这场战争不可避免”。所以一方势力的崛起，以及另一方所做的反应，制造了饱含骄傲，傲慢，偏执的有毒鸡尾酒，这毒药让两者都上了战场。

Which brings me to the big idea: Thucydides's Trap. "Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides's insight. Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, like Athens -- or Germany 100 years ago, or China today -- and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today. As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through the news and noise of the day to understand what's actually going on. 

而这将我引向一个宏大的想法：修昔底德的陷阱。“修昔底德的陷阱”是我几年前发明的词，以便生动地阐述修昔底德的见解。“修昔底德的陷阱”指的是当新兴力量，威胁到掌权势力时产生的危险动态，如雅典——如100年前的德国又如如今的中国——和它们对斯巴达的影响，如100年前的大英帝国又如今对美国造成的影响。像亨利·基辛格所说，一旦你产生这个想法，脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”，它将给你提供——透过现今的新闻与喧嚣，并理解事态的实际进展的棱镜。

So, to the most consequential question about our world today: Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history? Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic? Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you about China doing this, or the US reacting like that, you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on and even to explain it to your friends. 

所以，当下对于全世界来说，最重要的问题是：我们将步入历史的后尘吗？或者我们可以通过融合想象力和常识，以及勇气，来寻找到对付这种竞争关系的解决途径，而不引发任何人都不期待，且只会带来灾难的战争吗？让我花5分钟来解释，等你下午接收到一条新闻消息，报道中国这么做，或者美国那样应对时，你就会对事情进展有更深的理解，甚至可以跟朋友做一番解释。

So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty, China has actually soared. It's meteoric. Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best. He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished." 

如同我们所看到的这个贫穷倒金字塔一样，中国确实在崛起。如同流星般快速向前。我认为前任捷克总统瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的描述很准确。他说：“这一切发生得太快了，我们甚至还来不及去惊讶。”

To remind myself how astonished I should be, I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School. In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. In 2014, they said it wasn't finished. In 2015, they said it would take one more year. In 2016, they said it's not finished, we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished. Finally, last year, it was finished -- three times over budget. 

为了提醒我自己应该有多惊讶，我坐在自己在剑桥的办公室，偶尔会朝窗外望去这座横跨查尔斯河的桥，它处于哈佛的肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。2012年，马萨诸塞州宣布他们将翻新这座桥，预计将花费两年时间。可到了2014年还没竣工。2015年时，他们说要再一年。到了2016年他们又说未能竣工，我不是打算告诉大家它什么时候能竣工。最终，这项工程在去年竣工——实际花费金额是预算的三倍。

Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing. It's called the Sanyuan Bridge. In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge. It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic. How long did it take for them to complete the project? Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? Take a guess -- OK, three -- Take a look. 

现在，把这架桥和我上月在北京曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。这座桥叫三元桥。2015年时中国人决定翻新这座桥。这座桥的交通车道数是剑桥的两倍。中国人花了多久完成这项工程呢？2015年，你们猜是花了多久？猜一下——好，三（年）我们看看这段录像吧

The answer is 43 hours. 

答案是43小时。

Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York. 

当然，这种事不可能发生在纽约。

Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi. And he's made no secret about what he wants. As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again.

在这执行速度的背后是由以目标驱动行动的领导者，和一个干实事的政府。在如今的国际舞台上最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者，是领导人习。他从不掩饰自己想得到什么。如同他六年前当选时所说。他的目标就是要让中国再次变得伟大。

A banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049. 

这个口号早在特朗普提出类似的话前就已经出现了。那时习还宣布了特定日期应完成的特定目标：2025年，2035年，2049年。

By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic, China means to be unambiguously number one, including, [says] Xi, an army that he calls "Fight and Win." So these are audacious goals, but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives. 

到2025年时，中国要成为10个先进科技领域，主要市场中的主导力量，这其中包括无人驾驶汽车，机器人，人工智能和量子计算。到2035年时，中国要成为所有先进科技领域中最具创新力的领导者。并且到2049年，中国成立100周年之际，中国要成为无可争议的第一，其中包括，习强调，一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。这些都是大胆的目标，但是大家都知道，中国在朝着目标的路上，一路走得稳扎稳打。我们还需提醒自己这个世界的变化之快。三十年前，万维网还没出现。有谁能直观地感受到中国崛起的影响力呢？答案显而易见的，便是当今的第一大国。随着中国变得愈发强大和富有，科技变得更加先进，中国将注定要对美国的地位和特权产生威胁。

Now, for red-blooded Americans -- and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina -- there's something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one, that's who we are. But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy. As late as 2004, China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere. 

对于那些热血沸腾的美国人来说——尤其是像我一样的美国乡巴佬——我来自北卡罗莱纳州，这张宏大的蓝图里有点不对劲。美国就是“第一”的代名词，这点毋庸置疑，但是还需再次强调：我们无法忽视残忍的事实。四年前，参议员约翰·麦凯恩想让我，向参议院军事委员会阐明这个事实。我便给他们绘制了一张表，如大家所见，在这个表中，我把中美对比：比喻成在操场上玩跷跷板的两个小孩子，尺寸大小由两国的经济规模决定。2004年时，中国的规模仅占美国的一半。到了2014年，中国的GDP值和美国一样了。照此形势发展，到2024年时中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。这个构造层面的改变结果体现在方方面面。

For example, in the current trade conflict, China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back to our Greek historian. Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power. 

举个例子，在如今的贸易冲突中，中国已经成为了所有亚洲主要国家的，第一大贸易伙伴。这个事实又把我们带回了修昔底德的理论。哈佛大学的“修昔底德案例文档”回顾了前500年里的历史，并发现16个档案里出现了，崛起力量威胁掌权力量的事件。这其中12个案例以战争结束。最为悲剧的是，很少有主角，想要发动战争；其中只有几场战争是由崛起力量，或掌权力量发起的。

So how does this work? What happens is, a third party's provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it's life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months, all of Europe was at war. 

事情是如何进展的？实际上，第三方势力的挑衅，造成了某一方势力的躁动，而这便形成了一个漩涡，把这两方势力拽进了未曾想到达的地步。这听起来有点疯狂，确实是这样的。但现实如此。回想一下世界第一次大战。那场战争的导火索，便是矛头指向二级人物，弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺杀行动，这导致了奥匈帝国的皇帝，下达对塞尔维亚的最后通牒，随后形成了多方势力的盟军，两个月不到，全欧洲便陷入战争。

So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump? 

想象一下修昔底德观望如今的地球形势。他会发表什么看法？他会找到一个比特朗普更合适，掌权力量的领导者吗？

Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi? And he would scratch his head and certainly say he couldn't think of more colorful provocateur than North Korea's Kim Jong-un. Each seems determined to play his assigned part and is right on script. 

或者找到一个比习更合适的崛起力量领导者？然后他会挠挠头，并十分确信地说他无法找到，比朝鲜领导者金正恩更具鲜明色彩的煽动者了。每个人似乎都在扮演着被分配好的角色，并按着剧本发展进行。

So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations? 

最后，我们再以最重要的问题总结，这个问题对我们的余生，都具有重大意义：美国人和中国人难道就打算让历史的车轮，载着他们驶向对任何人都没好处的灾难性战争吗？又或，我们能征服想象力和勇气，寻找一条共生之路，分享21世纪的领导权力，或者就如习所说，创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？

That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately for the last two years. I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments -- Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo -- and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual. 

这个话题是我近两年来，一直在热切思考的。我曾有机会去和所有相关政府——北京，华盛顿，首尔，东京——讨论与倾听，并从艺术和商业范围判断这些领导者。我不方便透露更多。好消息是，这些领导者对于修昔底德的理论，以及其可能造成的危险，开始逐渐重视起来。坏消息是，没有人制定出可行的方案，来逃出历史的怪圈。

So it's clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional statecraft -- indeed, from another page or another space -- which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won't be the first time. 

所以我很清楚我们需要，在常规之外寻找些想法——实际上，是从另一角度或者另一空间——这便成为了我今天来TED的缘由，也促使我发出请求。在座的观众中囊括了这个星球上最富创造力的大脑，你们会早上起来时思索，不局限于关于如何管理这个世界的问题，也去思考该如何创造一个应有的世界。所以我希望随着大家思考得越深入，在座的人里可能，会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。而当这些想法被发现时，便会给这个世界带来些不同。提醒一下，如果你想尝试的话，这并不是历史上的首次尝试。

Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic. 

我再来讲述一下第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。一个由美国人，欧洲人和其他地区的人组成的杰出组织，其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员，还有来自文化界和商界的成员。他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。这些人所想象和创造的，是新的国际秩序，一个让你，我，所有人都拥有自己的生活，让大规模战争消失殆尽，并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。这是一段很杰出的事迹。有趣的是，这个项目中的每一环，在最开始公布的时候，被对外政策体制以幼稚和不现实为由，给拒绝。

My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II, Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it. 

我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。第二次世界大战结束后，美国已精疲力竭。它们遣散了一千万支军队，并把精力放在紧急国内议程中。但当人们开始意识到欧洲是怎么满目疮痍以及苏联共产主义如何强势时，美国人最后决定在四年内向人民征收占GDP1.5%的税金，并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建，包括德国和意大利，这些美国昔日的敌军。令人惊叹。这件事也促使了联合国的建立。令人惊叹。世界人权宣言。世界银行。北大西洋公约组织。所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣为目的的秩序的产物。总之，我们所需的是重新再做一遍。并且我认为现在我们需要想象力和创造力的迸发，前事不忘后事之师，因为哲学家桑塔耶拿告诫我们，最后，只有那些拒绝学习历史的人，会被迫重蹈历史的覆辙。

Thank you. 

谢谢大家。

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