【演讲】劝美国人，别与中国比拳击，不妨比马拉松（中英文）
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编者按：2018年5月10-11日，美国著名智库战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）在华盛顿连续主办两场主题是“全球经济秩序与中美关系”（内部）、“中美关系40年”主题研讨会，美国参议员苏利文、中国驻美大使崔天凯与美国前国防部长科恩做了午餐对话，美国前常务副国务卿、前世界银行行长佐利克做了晚餐内部演讲，近300位来自美国智库、政界与社会知名人士与会。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文先后分别在两场论坛开幕式、分论坛中做了主旨发言。此次英文发言内容发表在5月13日《环球时报》英文版，演讲的中文译版发表在5月14日观察者网。@人大重阳 微信公众号与您分享王文院长此次演讲的中英文版。
感谢邀请。在中美两国社会普遍焦虑两国关系未来的时候，召开如此大规模的智库对话会议是非常重要的。
今年是非常特殊的年份，是国际金融危机十周年，也是中美建交40周年，同样是中国改革开放40周年，我想，有必要重新评价过去十年来美国实力的变化，以及过去40年中美关系发展的历史经验。我的主要观点有五个：
第一，过去十年，中国在崛起，美国未衰落。2017中国GDP比上年增长6.9%，达到将近13万亿美元；2017年美国GDP则突破了19万亿美元。中美两国的GDP总额约占全球40%。中国经济份额从2008年的7.3%上升到2017年约15%。而美国经济过去十年占全球经济份额一直稳定在23％-25%之间。根据我个人的计算，美国占全球经济份额在2011年前后是最低的，大约23%左右，现在又在恢复，2018年大约能在25%左右。可见，中国崛起并没有实质地影响到美国在全球经济总量中的地位，而且，中国的经济总量与美国相比还存在较大的差距。
更重要的是，中国过去十年为世界经济增长贡献了30%左右，美国经济增长中约5%左右是源于中国的经济增长。这还不包括中国长期持有美元国债、支持美国主导的国际体系规则等非经济因素。从这个角度看，如果中国改革开放与中美建交同步，中国改革开放过去四十年的成功，要说一声“谢谢美国”，那么，美国过去十年的经济复苏，且仍能保持目前的全球领导权，也应该说一声“谢谢中国”。
第二，当前的美国社会错把中国当成是美国问题的替罪羊。近两年，我来了近十次美国，去了近十个州，与上百位美国朋友交谈，天天看美国媒体，阅读美国智库的报告，感觉美国实在对中国崛起过于焦虑。美国总以为，中国希望替代美国，甚至打败美国，进而领导全世界，这明显是错误的。没有任何国家能够打败美国，除了美国自己。
如果说中美有竞争关系，那么，比的是马拉松，而不是拳击。我是一位马拉松跑步的爱好者，深刻知道要赢得马拉松，关键靠的是自己要调整好身体状态，不要犯错误。从这个角度说，两国的竞争是国内治理的竞争，比的是谁犯错误少的竞争，是谁更能满足国内需求的竞争。过去40年，尤其是冷战结束以后，中国是全世界犯错误最少的国家。中国以经济建设为中心，一直在推进国内改革，满足民众的需求，没有参与对外战争，保持社会稳定，这场马拉松赛，中国跑得不错。
美国整体表现不错。美国的科技水平一直在引领世界，美国文化在全球流行，但美国也犯了不少错误，发动了本不应发动的伊拉克战争、发生了国际金融危机。美国经济、军事、科技、文化实力都没有衰落，但美国的软实力衰落了。美国在全球形象不好，美国不再是自由民主的形象，而成了自私、强权的代名词，甚至2017年根据皮尤中心的调查，中国在全球的形象第一次好于美国。这才是美国需要真正反思的。
第三，美国明显高估了中国的全球战略，低估了中国对美国的积极作用。在任何中国政策文件中，中国都没有提过要成为全球领导，中国支持二战以来的国际体系，绝不是国际体系的革命力量。
更重要的是，中美两国的产业结构互补性较大，中美两国应加强相关领域的合作，为两国经济发展提供新的动能。中国的经济发展水平已进入中等收入国家行列。根据2018年1月《华盛顿邮报》的数据显示，中国人民实物商品消费2018年预计5.8万亿美元。未来三年，中国很有可能将会赶上美国，成为全球第一消费大国。目前，中国经济增长最主要的动能来自于消费，其贡献率达到58.8%。消费成为拉动经济增长的第一动能。这是美国经济增长的重大机会。2018年11月，中国将举办首届进口博览会，向全世界购买商品，美国应该参加到中国去展示最好的、值得卖给中国的最好产品。
中国目前的三大任务是，防范金融风险、精准扶贫、生态保护等。这三大任务都意味着美国的机遇，美国能与中国分享金融经验、出口更多商品包括清洁能源、技术等。
第四，中美贸易失衡是被高估的。按美国经济分析局（BEA）统计，2015年，美国企业在中国的总销售额是3720亿美元，其中美国企业在中国的子公司销售2320亿美元，直接出口到中国1500亿美元。2015年，中国企业对美国出售了4020亿美元的货物和服务，其中包括100亿美元的中国企业在美子公司的销售和3930亿美元的中国对美国的出口。这个角度看，中美贸易的美国逆差仅有300亿美元。
更重要的，在全球服务贸易上，2015年总计9.4万亿美元，美国1.2万亿美元，中国仅是6000亿美元。中国排在全球第五位，美国仍是第一服务贸易大国，美国占全球服务贸易出口的15%，英国占6.9%；德国占5.6%，法国占4.9%，中国仅4.3%。而中国是全球第二大服务贸易进口国，中国与美国的服务贸易逆差是1400亿美元左右。
回顾中美建交40年的历史，事实上远比美苏关系要复杂。美苏关系主要是竞争与冲突，但中美关系却是相互依赖、有竞争有合作，双边经贸关系更是“你中有我、我中有你”。我同意基辛格博士说的，中美需要“共同演进”，共同应对全球的挑战，而不是比拳击。
第五，未来40年中美关系很难预测，但一定不会重复过去的道路。未来的国家会受到高科技、互联网的巨大挑战，非国家的力量正在冲击着国家的存在。如果超越政治现实主义的理论逻辑，中国一定不是美国未来的首要对手，甚至没有任何一个国家会成为美国的对手。美国最大的对手会是那些非国家的力量，跨国公司、互联网、智能机器人、恐怖主义还有许多国内矛盾。谁能处理好这些复杂的问题，谁就是未来的领袖。这些领袖未必是国家领导人，也有可能是某个哲学家、某个跨国公司老总。未来没有什么是不可能的。
再次感谢主办方为我提供如此好的机会。谢谢。
附英文版：
China-US competition: marathon, not boxing
By Wang Wen Source: Global Times Published: 2018-5-13
Editor`s note:
On May 10-11, famous American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies organized two symposiums in Washington, DC, with the themes "Global Economic Order and China-US Relations" and "China-US Relations in the Past 40 Years". Nearly 200 figures from US political and think tank circles, including Senators, attended the two events in which Chinese ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, gave the keynote speech. Former US deputy secretary of state and former president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, made the dinner speech. Wang Wen, the executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China and executive director of Sino-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center, spoke at the opening ceremony and parallel sessions. The full text of Wang Wen`s speech:
Thanks for the invitation. It is very important to hold such a large think tank dialogue as both Chinese and American societies are showing anxiety about bilateral relations in the future.
This year is special, for the world as well as China and the US. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the international financial crisis. It is also the 40th anniversary of the establishment of China-US diplomatic relations and China`s Reform and Opening-up. Hence, I think it is necessary to reassess the change in US power in the past 10 years and the historical experiences of the development of China-US relations in the last four decades. I have five main arguments:
First, China has been rising in the past 10 years while the US has not declined. In 2017, China`s GDP reached nearly $13 trillion, rising 6.9 percent over the last year. Simultaneously, GDP of the US was $19 trillion. The total amount of the two countries` GDP reached nearly 40 percent of world output. China`s economic share rose from 7.3 percent in 2008 to 15 percent last year, while that of the US has stabilized between 23 percent to 25 percent in the past 10 years, plunging in 2011 but recovering to 25 percent this year. Therefore, China`s rise does not challenge US dominance of the world economy. Instead, there is still a big gap between China and US economic aggregates.
What`s more important, China has contributed around 30 percent of global economic growth, which means that 5 percent of US economic growth came from China`s growth. It does not include those non-economic factors such as China`s long-term holding of US government bonds and supporting Washington in the international ruling system. Thus, China should appreciate US for the success of 40-year reform and opening up which is in synch with the establishment of China-US diplomatic relations, while the US should appreciate China for supporting its economic recovery and maintenance of global leading power.
Scapegoating China
Second, the US society is mistaken in making China the scapegoat for its own problems. In the last two years, I visited the US about 10 times going around 10 states. After talking with hundreds of American friends, looking at US media coverage and reading research report published by US think- tanks, I have felt the US is excessively anxious about China`s rise. Washington is always thinking that China would replace, even defeat the US and then lead the world. Obviously it is wrong. There is no country that could defeat the US, except the US itself.
China-US competition is a marathon, not a boxing match. As a marathon runner, I understand that the key to winning is keeping all parts of the body in the best condition and avoid making mistakes. In the past 40 years, especially after the end of the Cold War, China is the country which made the least mistakes. China has been constantly promoting domestic reforms to meet people`s needs, not fighting wars and maintaining social stability. Up till now, China has done really well in this marathon.
Strategic mistakes
The US has also done a good job. US technology has been leading globally and American culture has spread across the world. However, the US made several mistakes. It started the Iraq War and triggered the international financial crisis. Even worse, US soft power declined. The global image of the US has taken a beating. . Instead of becoming the beacon of freedom and democracy, the US has become synonymous with selfishness and overbearing power. According to investigation by Pew Research Center, for the first time China`s global image is better than the US`. It is something the US should introspect about.
Third, the US overestimated China`s global strategy, while underestimating its rival`s positive bias toward it. China never says officially that it is the global leader. With firm support of the international system established after World War II, China could never be the revolutionary power in the international system.
The industrial architecture of China and the US is complementary. They should strengthen industrial cooperation to provide new dynamics to economic development of both sides. China has already become a middle-income country. According to data from The Washington Post in January 2018, China`s commodity consumption will reach $5.8 trillion this year. In three years, China may surpass the US, becoming the country with the largest consumption. Currently, consumption that contributed 58.8 percent of GDP is the most important impetus to China`s economic growth. In other words, consumption has become the largest dynamic of China`s economic growth. It is a big opportunity for the US. In November 2018, China will host the first Import Expo in Shanghai, purchasing commodities from all over the world. The US should take this chance and go to China to offer the best goods.
China has three main tasks: preventing a financial crisis, reducing poverty and preserving the ecology. All these tasks can be an opportunity for the US in terms of experience sharing, clean energy, and technology export.
Fourth, the trade imbalance between China and the US has been exaggerated. Based on the statistics from BEA, in 2015, the gross revenue of American companies in China was $372 billion, out of which $232 billion came from US firms` subsidiaries in China and $150 billion directly from US export to the country. Meanwhile, Chinese companies` gross revenue in US (including goods and services) was $402 billion, out of which $10 billion from Chinese firms` subsidiaries in the US and $393 billion directly from China`s exports to US. From this perspective, the US trade deficit with China is only $30 billion.
In 2015, the total value of global trade in service was $9.4 trillion. The US accounted for $1.2 trillion while China only accounted for $600 billion. The US is still the largest country for trade in service export, accounting for 15 percent of global share. It is followed by the UK 6.9 percent, Germany 5.6 percent and France 4.9 percent. China only accounts for 4.3 percent, ranking fifth. In addition, China is the second largest country for trade in service import. China`s trade in service deficit with the US is around $140 billion.
History lesson
Reviewing the history of the establishment of China-US diplomatic ties in the past 40 years, we could conclude that bilateral relations are far more complicated than they were between US and the USSR. While US-USSR relations focus on competition and conflict, China and the US are highly interdependent. With both competition and cooperation, trade relations of the two countries are also too hard to be driven a wedge into. Hence, I agree with Dr Henry Kissinger`s saying that China and the US need to co-evolve to face global challenges jointly rather than fighting a boxing match.
Fifth, the path China-US relations will take in the coming 40 years is hard to predict, while one can be certain they will not take the same road again. In the future, countries will be severely challenged by technology and the internet. Non-state actors will shock the existence of countries. Going beyond realistic political logic, China will not be the main rival of US. Not even one country will be US` rival. Instead, US` main rivals will be non-state powers such as transnational companies, internet, artificial intelligence robot, terrorism and its various domestic contradictions. One who can deal with all these complicated problems will be the leader of the future. Leaders of the future will not necessarily be state leaders. They could be philosophers or CEOs of transnational companies. Nothing will be impossible.
Wang Wen is executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。