【观点】图尔克：中国改革开放40年释放的信息
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作者达尼洛·图尔克系斯洛文尼亚前总统、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员，本文中文版刊于8月10日《环球时报》，英文版刊于8月13日中国日报网。
中文版
过去40年里，全世界目睹了一个历史性变化，即中国在其改革开放历程中不仅成功使8亿人口脱贫，还对整个世界经济的发展产生非常积极的影响。
回顾我的个人经历，在2001年担任联合国政治事务助理秘书长期间，我曾参加一场由时任中国全国人大常委会委员长李鹏和时任联合国秘书长安南共同出席的会议。李鹏委员长在会上说，中国不仅会实现联合国重申的千年发展目标，还会对此目标的实现做出令世人瞩目的贡献。中国确实做到了这一点，无论自身国内发展还是对国际社会都履行了承诺，这都极大提升了中国自身及其政策导向的可信度。改革开放40年传达出的第一条信息，就是中国已证明了自身及在发展政策上极高的公信力。
并非所有人都对中国未来在全球中扮演的角色持正面态度。有些人惧怕中国和西方之间的竞争，还有人甚至认为根据所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”原理，中国终究无法逃脱历史的轨迹而将与西方发生战争。当然，也有乐观的观点认为冲突是可以避免的，合作是可持续的。要理解这种乐观态度，我们必须首先要了解我们所处世界的本质和它正在经历着的变化。其次，我们在处理大大小小的国际问题上都应朝着互惠互利和双赢的方向努力。
现在我们已经处在一个多极化的世界，这个时代对传统上“权力平衡”的政治考虑将更深远。多极化时代意味着一个更加相互依存的世界，但同时，对于“现代化”“国内秩序”以及“国家合法性”等概念也存在着明显的多元理解。为了建立一个与21世纪相匹配的新的世界秩序，对这些概念的不同定义必须要有清晰的认知。
在这个多极化世界中，中国将成为一个主要参与者，而且有可能是最关键的参与者。中国的国际力量会随发展中国家日益重要的发展前景而增强，这始于半个世纪前这些发展中国家开始的“去殖民化”进程。现阶段中国的影响力较之过去几年已有明显增强，这点值得关注。
世界“去殖民化”进程始于二战结束之后，也是中华人民共和国成立之前不久。上世纪70年代中期，即中国改革开放前夕，这些发展中国家已逐渐形成一个属于它们自己的新的世界经济秩序。这个过程导致国际舞台上出现了一些强有力的新参与者，产生了面向未来的巨大需求和机遇。因此，中国改革开放传达的第二条信息，就是中国的进步和全球发展中国家的进步是历史性的融合。
第三条信息是过去40年中两极化全球格局瓦解，新的国际体系包含多个相互重叠的框架，竞争是这个体系的固有因素。在任何具有全球意义的问题上，总会有几个强大的国家参与其中。这就是对多极化世界的概念性理解，其中掺杂着新旧利益攸关方之间的各种交杂互动。虽然中美之间的互动越来越重要，却不可能再把世界带入一个冷战时期那样的两极化世界。
把中美关系看成是双边性的零和博弈是错误的。除了双方的利益与损失是并存的，在这个多极化时代里，每个大事件发生时，也总会有超过两个的国家参与其中。“两极化”这一概念已不符合我们当前时代的需要，更不用说据此来制定明智的政策了。中国和美国都必须考虑当今国际舞台上的其他参与者，比如俄罗斯、欧盟、印度、日本、其他众多发展中国家，以及金砖国家、七国集团等。
过去40年已经改变中国和世界。对中国自身而言，改革开放40年，中国政策公信力逐渐达到历史最高水平。对世界而言，这40年也改变了那些摆脱殖民统治的国家，使之成为未来发展的重要动因，并消除了阻碍全球进步的两极化。这三个信息结合在一起，为中国未来在全球发挥关键角色提供了一个重大的机遇和责任。
英文版
China’s reform, opening-up: Three key messages
The past forty years have witnessed one of the most spectacular changes in history. Not only was China - in its period of reforms and opening - able to lift more than 800 million people out of poverty, it has also influenced, in a very positive manner, the global economic development.
A personal memoir: In 2001 I attended, in my then capacity as UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs,the meeting between Li Peng, then Chairman of the National People's Congress of China and Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General. Chairman Li pledged that China would not only fulfil the Millennium Development Goals that were declared by the United Nations just a few months earlier, but would also make a significant contribution to their global realisation.China has indeed delivered - both with its own development and with its promises to the international community. This has produced a high level of credibility of China and its policy orientation, a quality that has to be appreciated in discussions about the global role of China today and tomorrow.The first message of the fortieth anniversary of China's reforms and opening is, that China proved to be highly credible in her vision and policies of development.
Understandably, not all commentators would agree with a positive outlook for the future of China's global role. Some fear its competition with the West and some even predict the possibility of military conflagrations along the historical pattern dubbed as the "Thucydides trap". However, there is no inevitability in human history. Dangers, including the very real ones, can be avoided, and opportunities can be seized. The first condition for such a positive scenario is to understand the nature of our world and its ongoing changes. The second condition is the ability to work for mutual advantage and seek win-win outcomes in dealing with international problems, big and small.
We already live in a multipolar world. The multi-polarity of our era reaches more deeply than the traditional power politics and considerations of the balance of power. It implies deep interdependence and, at the same time, significant diversity of conceptions of modernity, of domestic order and legitimacy of the state. This diversity has to be recognized in any attempt to build an international order fit for the 21st Century.
China will be a major player in this multipolar setting, probably the pivotal one. Moreover, China's international power will be enhanced by the prospect of growing importance of the developing world, a process that started half a century ago with decolonization. This is an aspect that deserves more attention than was the case in the past years.
The process of decolonization started in the aftermath of the Second World War - shortly before the creation of the People's Republic of China. It has produced its own idea of a New International Economic Order in the mid-1970s, shortly before the beginning of the process of reforms and opening of China. And it has by now produced a number of new strong players in the international arena as well as great needs and opportunities for the future.So, the second message is, that the progress of China and the progress of the global developing world are historically converging.
And there is a third message: The changes of the last forty years have done away with bipolarity.The emerging international system is likely to consist of multiple overlapping frameworks and competition will be an inherent element of this system. There will always be several powerful players involved in any question of global significance. This is the conceptual understanding of a world of constant interaction among a variety of players, some old and some new ones. While the interactions between the US and China are likely to be ever more important, they are unlikely to lead to bipolarity, let alone to the kind of patterns known in the Cold War era.
It is erroneous to view the US - Chinarelations as a bilateral zero sum game where one side wins and the other loses. The gains and losses are shared by both and there are always more than only two players relevant in each major situation. The bipolar "Manichean" forms of thought no longer correspond to the needs of our era, let alone devise sensible policies. Both China and the US have to consider other players on the international stageRussia, European Union, India, Japan, a variety of developing countries and the dynamics within the groupings such as BRICS and the G7.
The past forty years have changed China - and the world. The forty years of opening and reforms of China have produced a historically high level of credibility of its policies. They have also changed the decolonized world and made it an important agent of the future development. And they have done away with bipolarity that had blocked global progress in the recent past. When put together these three messages provide a significant opportunity and responsibility to China as a pivotal state of the future world.
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。