本文大概2200字，读完共需3分钟
编者按：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第十三篇专栏文章《世界变化快，知识跟不上》于今日刊出，现将中英文内容转发如下：
In front of the Winter Palace at Saint Petersburg in Russia, the autumn wind on the Neva River made people shiver. As I waited for my assistant to buy the tickets, an elderly man walked up to me, selling a warm mane hat and old stamps from the Soviet times. He was holding a 100 yuan ($14.3) and extending two fingers, indicating that I can buy either kind with 200 yuan. We did not understand each other's language, but we successfully finished the deal.
在冬宫前，涅瓦河的秋风吹得人瑟瑟发抖。我等待助手买门票时，一位圣彼得堡老人悄悄地走到身边，向我推销一顶厚实的貂毛大帽与苏联时代的老邮票，再用两个手指、拿着一张100元的人民币示意：200元可任挑一件。我们都不会对方的语言，却顺利地完成了交易。Two feelings dawned on me at the time: First, I sympathized with the elderly man and wanted that he sell his wares and go home for a rest; second, I sighed that when Russian economy is in a recession, the elderly suffer first.当时，我内心只有两个念头。一是同情，让老人赶紧卖了东西，回家休息；二是感叹。昔日超级大国苏联的衣钵继承者俄罗斯，经济一旦不景气，老年人会先受苦。Once during a forum, I told the Russian audience that in 1992, Russia's total GDP was similar to China's. But in 2018, China's total GDP was about seven times Russia's. I suggested that my Russian friends re-examine China's development experience.那次，我在论坛与俄罗斯听众分享，1992年，俄罗斯与中国的GDP总量差不多。2018年，中国GDP已是俄罗斯的7倍，建议俄罗斯朋友们应该重新审视中国的发展经验。Sometimes it does not take a long time for powerful countries to end up in a difficult situation. I have traveled to Paris many times in recent years, and I see cigarettes, street vendors and pickpockets in the once beautiful and tidy Champs-Élysées avenue and its surrounding blocks. In Budapest, Warsaw and Vienna - capital cities of Hungary, Poland and Austria - graffiti and decrepit buildings are found everywhere. These once powerful European countries now seem to be decaying.从强盛大国到困难窘境，有时不需要多久。这些年常去巴黎，昔日美丽整洁的香榭丽舍大街及周边街区，满大街的香烟头，还有地摊小贩、猖獗扒手；在匈牙利首都布达佩斯、波兰首都华沙、奥地利首都维也纳，到处都是涂鸦街景与破烂楼屋，昔日欧洲强国荣光显得有一些衰败。But some other countries are showing their rise with pride. Once inside the hall of the National Museum of the Republic of Kazakhstan, you see a giant map of the country reflecting the ambition of the nation when it declared independence in 1991. When overlooking Brasilia, founded in 1960 to serve as the capital of Brazil, one may find the whole city looks like an airplane about to take off. This shows Brazil's desire and vision when choosing Brasilia as the capital.另一面则是浓浓“集体崛起”的豪情。在哈萨克斯坦国家博物馆，一进大厅，映入眼帘的是对面墙上一张硕大的、足足上百平方米的哈萨克斯坦国家疆域图，折射了这个拥有上千年历史的民族在1990年代初第一次建国的豪迈与雄心；在巴西利亚，数百米高空俯视这个20世纪中叶建都的城市版图，是按一架欲展翅高飞的飞机形状，表达着当时建都时巴西的大国欲望与愿景。In Abuja, a city that was declared capital of Nigeria in 1991, locals praise the city as big, new and beautiful, and say they hope to see Nigeria become the largest economy in Africa. The Azadi Square in Tehran, capital of Iran, can accommodate hundreds of thousands of people. I was once invited to listen to a speech by former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who said that Iran would fight to the end with the US and Israel.在尼日利亚新首都阿布贾，当地朋友很骄傲地分享他们对新首都“大、新、美”的认识，以及尼日利亚将崛起成非洲第一经济体的憧憬；在伊朗德黑兰，自由广场上能够同时容纳几十万人，我曾被邀请到观礼台上，现场倾听时任总统内贾德誓与美国、以色列斗到底的演讲。The development momentum of traditional major powers in the 20th century and the emerging economies in the 21st century alternates too fast. Knowledge from the current books and libraries is obviously not enough. We need new books presenting a fresh perspective of world history.20世纪传统强国与21世纪新兴经济体之间发展势头的交替变化得太快，所有图书馆中的书籍与知识显然不够用了。现在，需要一部新的世界史。Of all authors that write about world history, I admire Arnold Joseph Toynbee the most. The sage, who wrote a 12-volume world history named A Study of History, traced the development and decay of 28 civilizations in the book that is regarded as the most profound writing on human civilization. Toynbee was a diplomat for many years and worked at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.在世界史的写作上，我最崇拜阿诺德 ·汤因比。这位被美国《新闻周刊》称为“一位世界通哲，与爱因斯坦、史怀哲和罗素并列”的智者，写了一部12卷本被称为“最长篇幅的英语文献”《历史研究》，讲述了世界上26个主要民族文明的兴衰，堪称“对人类文明最深刻的著述”。他曾担任过多年外交官，还在全球顶级智库英国皇家国际事务研究所工作20多年。But the peak period of Toynbee's writing came during his global travel after retirement at the age of 64. He started from London, passed through South America and the Asia-Pacific and also went to South Asia and the Near East to visit places that people are already familiar with. This is because to learn about these places from books is to understand them on the basis of second-hand materials.但他真正的创作高峰是在64岁退休以后的环球旅行中。他从伦敦出发，偕妻子一起乘船，用了将近两年的时间，经南美和环太平洋地区，还到了南亚和近东，想“亲自会见和实地参观我们今天已经耳熟能详的人和地方。因为从文献中了解到的这些人和地方，都是借助二手材料”。I am luckier than Toynbee. Because of a fast globalizing world order, convenient transportation and opportunities brought by China's rise, I have been to almost 100 countries when I am still far from my retirement age. I have been to the US and Europe tens of times, and I have repeatedly visited some countries that are rich in history. For example, I have been to Iran eight times and Turkey five times. But due to my busy work schedule, my visits to these nations were rushed.我比前辈汤因比更幸运，全球化的加速与交通的便捷化，以及中国快速崛起期给予个人的时代机遇，加之我一向秉持“脚底板下做学问”的方法论，使我能够远未到退休年龄就去了近100个国家。有的地方去了一二十次甚至更多，如美国、欧洲，有些富有历史底蕴的国家，也去过多次，如去了 8次伊朗、5次土耳其。不过，我的“不幸”在于高频率的工作，只能走马观花式地匆匆一瞥。Nevertheless, from these trips I have recognized that history is unpredictable. The transformation from glory to decay, and from unity to division is always hard to notice. The political unrest in Chile and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China in 2019 has further proven this.虽然多是匆匆一瞥，但到这些国家的见识令我越来越深刻地认为，历史并非是天衣无缝的连续体，而是一场变幻莫测的断层线。升腾与坠落、荣耀与衰败、联合与分裂、丰富与匮乏之间的转换，往往不那么容易被知识分子察觉。21世纪第二个十年的最后一年里，智利、香港等地的社会混乱更进一步地证明了这一点。Under such metamorphosis, China's rise has reached a moment that is the nearest to the country's great rejuvenation. The Chinese need to observe the world more carefully, remain humble and take lessons from those once powerful major countries and emerging economies.在这种大变局下，中国崛起走到了“离中华民族伟大复兴最近的时刻”。中国人需要更细致地观察世界，保持着谦逊之态，从那些昔日大国、区域强国、新兴经济体中吸取足够多的成败经验。这一点须切记！
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。