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崛起的后浪,滞后的制度(中英双语)

王文 人大重阳 2020-09-04

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本文大概3000字,读完共需4分钟


编者按:无论是中国政府,还是西方世界,都要为迎接由下一代青年人即将领导中国而做提前准备。在第36篇“变局”专栏中,作者中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为应该为新一代中国人更好地服务于国家、广泛参与全球治理加快政策改革进程。


本文英文版在Global Times的版面截图

几天前,儿子向我推荐一首8K环绕音乐曲,戴上耳机,音效在脑顶360度回旋,听觉相当震撼。这不是12岁的儿子第一次向我推荐新鲜事物,此前还有某新款透气篮球鞋、某个有趣APP、某个我不知道的明星,甚至还有我专栏曾写过的他对美国的新看法。
每一次我都会有一种被“后浪”推在沙滩上的“前浪”感。上周的中国五四青年节,一部3分钟、主题为《后浪》的演讲视频,表达中年人对年轻人的敬意,引起上亿人的观看与热议。有人肯定这种致敬年轻人的方式,有人则批评过于讨好年轻人。但有一点几乎是共识,在中国,年轻人不会简单地重复前一代的脚印。
美国政治学家罗纳德·英格尔哈特(Ronald Inglehart)1970年代提出“代际价值观转变理论”,即经济发展和生存条件的改变将产生代际价值观转变,尤其是有一些重大的时代事件会影响不同代际人的优先价值观。21世纪以来中国与世界互动的速度加快,诸如加入WTO、北京奥运、2008年国际金融危机等都在为新一代青年人打开了青春懵懂期的一扇窗,感知中国与世界的拥抱、竞争与摩擦。
任何一代青年人会有鲜明的时代特征。对于中国“90后”“00后”而言,一个更重要的参考维度,就是中外实力消长引发的代际心理变迁。
2000年以后,中国经济总量的国际排名几乎每年前挪一位。2010年后,中国稳居全球第二大经济体,成功抓住了互联网2.0时代的发展机遇,运用包括微博、微信等在内的信息互动、连接、传递、分享技术的普及,在共享经济、电子商务、基础设施、移动支付等领域开始在某些领域领先于世界。这个进程塑造着新一代中国人的价值观。
与发达国家的青年人相比,中国“90后”的国家自豪感更强。尤其新冠疫情暴露了西方国家治理缺陷的背景下,他们更摆脱了上一代对西方的崇拜情结。他们同步甚至更超前地接受世界的前沿信息、产品与生活方式,如无现金支付、便捷高铁、高网速、安全的城市生活等。
调查显示,有97.6%的青年以作为一个中国人而感到自豪。69.8%的大学生表达出对中央政府的信任,71.3%的大学生认为遵循政府的政策对国家发展很重要,82.5%认为中国繁荣会带来人民生活水平的提高。“90后”对社会主义核心价值观内容的重要排序,第一是“富强”,其次是“文明”、“和谐”。西方社会所推崇的“自由”、“民主”则分别排在第5、7位。
这代中国年轻人已不是1960年代美国中央情报局内部报告中所指涉的“和平演变”对象,也不是特朗普政府唯一的“中国通”、美国副国家安全顾问波廷格(Matt Pottinger)近期就“五四精神”演讲中所理解的,中国青年站在中国政府的对立面。
相比他们的父母辈,当前的中国年轻人们当然有许多不足,比如,容易骄傲、轻视他国、不爱储蓄,拥有来自父辈更殷实的物质基础后,对未来的奋斗目标往往会感到迷惘、困惑。但我坚信,他们所主导的中国未来,一定不会重复着西方的道路,一定会让中国更繁荣、更富强,也一定会让中国更好与世界沟通与互动。
当务之急是,无论是中国政府,还是西方世界,都要为迎接由下一代青年人即将领导中国而做提前准备。
对于中国而言,应该为新一代中国人更好地服务于国家、广泛参与全球治理加快政策改革进程。比如,城市高房价、高租金导致青年人大学毕业后、一踏入社会便会压力陡增,在“象牙塔”中积攒的国家自豪感极易受挫。防火墙的设置使年轻人无法便捷地运用谷歌、推特等国际通行的网络工具,对青年一代与世界各国同代人的交流顺畅度也造成影响。当下中国大学的师资、教材、管理严重滞后于青年人的求知欲,等等。
对于西方尤其是美国而言,应该发自内心地尊重中国,接受中国崛起的事实。长期对中国批判的舆论状态、傲慢自负的意识形态与价值观、不公平的国际贸易金融体系,肯定会把中国年轻人渐渐地推到与西方抗争求合作的对立面。
到时候,恐怕又会有西方学者像二战后质问“谁失去了中国”那样,再困惑于“谁失去了中国未来”。我不希望西方成为“前浪”,被中国年轻人“后浪”拍死在沙滩上。相反,双方相互学习,共同进步,才是最好的结果。从这个角度看,目前仍是中国与西方关系的战略良机。

《后浪》央视版

以下为英文版

Wake up world: Chinese youth wave coming

By Wang Wen

The other day, my son recommended me a piece of 8K music, which means music produced with a high-tech display resolution with superior clarity and depth. As I put on the headphones, it felt like I was surrounded by a full 360-degree wave cycle. 

This is not the first recommendation of new things from my 12-year-old. He has let me try out a pair of breathable basketball shoes, an interesting APP, and even informed me about a celebrity that I had no idea of. He also talked to me about his views on the US. 

Every time I felt like a wave at sea, a wave that was driven by bigger and powerful waves from behind. A short video titled "The Wave Behind" was released on May 4, the Youth Day in China. It expressed respect from an older generation of Chinese toward the younger generation. The video caused heated debates on China's social media. Some praised the way it paid tribute to young people. Others criticized the video as "kissing up" to the youth.
But there is a consensus that emerged in these discussions: Young people in China will not simply follow the footsteps of previous generations step by step. 

In the 1970s, American political scientist Ronald Inglehart put forward the theory of intergenerational value changes. Inglehart postulated that changes in economic development and living conditions will lead to intergenerational value changes, and that major events in an era would affect the value priorities of that generation.  

Since the beginning of the 21st century, interactions between China and the world have been accelerating. China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, hosted the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, and experienced the 2008-09 financial crisis.
These historical experiences opened up a window for young Chinese people to see the acceptance and competition between China and the world. 

Each generation of young people has their distinctive characteristics defined by the times.
The ongoing changes in the national strengths of both China and other countries are influencing psychological shifts among the post-1990s and post-2000s generations in China. 

Since 2000, the international ranking of China's GDP has been rising fast. Since 2010, China has steadily ranked as the second largest economy in the world. China has successfully seized development opportunities in the Web2.0 era. With the popularization of information interaction, connection, transmission and sharing of technologies, such as social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat, China is leading the world in certain sectors, such as e-commerce, infrastructure construction, and mobile payments. The process is shaping the values of the young Chinese generation.

Compared with young people in developed countries, China's post-1990s generation has a stronger sense of national pride. They have abandoned the previous generation's worship of the West, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic revealed structural weaknesses of Western governments. They are even more forward-looking in accepting the world's cutting-edge information, products and lifestyles, including cashless payments, high-speed railways, and high-speed communications networks.

About 98 percent of Chinese aged 18 to 35 are proud of their being Chinese, according to a survey of 8,212 respondents conducted by the China Youth Daily from April 24 to 28. Another survey of 13,074 respondents, jointly conducted by Fudan University and Shanghai Open University from 2015 to 2017, found that 69.8 percent of university students trust the Chinese government, 71.3 percent of university students believe adhering to government policies is important to national development, and 82.5 percent think the country's prosperity will improve people's living standards.
When people of the post-1990s generation were asked to rank the core values of socialism, they put "prosperity" first, and then "civilization" and "harmony." "Freedom" and "democracy," values Western societies endorse, are ranked the fifth and seventh, respectively. 

This generation of Chinese youth is not the object of the "peaceful evolution" programs carried out by CIA operatives in the 1960s. Matt Pottinger, the only "China hand" in US President Donald Trump's administration and US deputy national security advisor, believes that young Chinese oppose their government. This is just opposite to the truth.

Compared with their parent's generation, the young generation has many shortcomings - they tend to easily become arrogant, despise other countries quickly, and don't save money. While they've inherited properties from their parents, they may feel at a loss about their objectives for hard work. But I believe in China's future, which is dominated by these young people. They will not replicate Western ways, but will instead make China more prosperous and powerful. They will enable our country to better communicate with the world.

The current and urgent task for both China and the Western world is to be prepared for the younger generation who will lead China.

China should accelerate policy reforms so that the new generation can better serve the country and widely participate in global governance.
For instance, skyrocketing housing prices and high rents make young graduates feel greatly pressured. Moreover, not being able to have easy access to internet tools such as Google and Twitter has made communication with their peers around the world difficult. In addition, the resources of faculties, teaching materials, and management in Chinese universities lag behind the demands of young people.

The West, especially the US, should respect China and accept China's rise as a fact. The long-term critical tone against China, arrogant and conceited ideologies, slanted values, and unfair international trade and financial systems will inevitably push the Chinese youth to a confrontational stance against the West.

If that happens, Western scholars may be baffled about "Who lost the future of China?" This harks back to the old US Cold War saying of "Who lost China?"
I wouldn't like to see the West overwhelmed by Chinese youth like a wave at sea. Rather, China and the West should learn from each other and advance together. From this perspective, now is still a good strategic opportunity for China and the West to work together to make their relations mature.

The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.

《强国长征路:百国调研归来看中华复兴与世界未来》(王文 著)中共中央党校出版社(请点击购买)

《数字中国:区块链、智能革命与国家治理的未来》(王文 刘玉书 著) 中信出版社(请点击购买)

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。


作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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