中国可在第二世界的兴衰有所感悟（中英双语）

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编者按：老牌大国在逐渐走向落寞，世界正在发生重大改变。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第48篇“变局”专栏中表示，在未来相当长一段时间内，世界多极化的趋势不可阻挡。他深信中国人不骄傲，更不会狂妄到想到领导世界的程度。本期人大重阳君为您推荐英文版、中文译文。

本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图

　　在全球智库史上，我最崇拜的前辈是阿诺德·汤因比（1889-1976）。美国《新闻周刊》称他是“一位世界通，与爱因斯坦、史怀哲与罗素并列”。他的12卷本被称为“最长篇幅的英语文献”的《历史研究》，讲述了世界上 26个主要民族文明的兴衰，堪称“对人类文明最深刻的著述”。

　　他曾担任过多年外交官，还担任过全球顶级智库英国皇家国际事务研究所研究部主任20多年，但他真正的创作高峰是在64岁退休以后的环球旅行。他从伦敦出发，携妻子一起乘船，用了将近两年的时间，经南美和环太平洋地区，还到了南亚和近东，想“亲自会见和实地参观我们今天已经耳熟能详的人和地方。因为从文献中了解到的这些人和地方，都是借助二手材料”。

　　我比前辈汤因比更幸运，全球化的加速与交通的便捷化，以及中国快速崛起期给予个人的时代机遇，加之我一向秉持“脚底板下做学问”的方法论，使我能够远未到退休年龄就去了将近100个国家。有的地方去了一二十次甚至更多，如美国、欧洲，有些富有历史底蕴且中国人不常去的国家，也去过多次，比如去了8次伊朗、5次土耳其、3次肯尼亚。不过，我的“不幸”在于高频率的工作，只能让我走马观花式地匆匆一瞥。

　　好在我曾有8年记者的经历，即使一瞥，也多少能切身感受到当今世界正处在一股前所未有的“集体崛起潮”，比如，去哈萨克斯坦国家博物馆，一进大厅，映入眼帘的是对面墙上一张硕大的、足足上百平方米的哈萨克斯坦国家疆域图，折射了这个拥有上千年历史的民族在20世纪90年代初才第一次建国的豪迈与雄心；在巴西利亚，在数百米高空俯视这个20世纪中叶建都的城市，可以看出完全就是按一架欲展翅高飞的飞机形状来设计与规划整座城市，表达着当时建都时的巴西大国欲望与愿景；在尼日利亚新首都阿布贾，当地非洲朋友会很骄傲地分享他们对新首都“大、新、美”的认识，以及尼日利亚将崛起成非洲第一经济体的自豪感与憧憬；在伊朗德黑兰，自由广场上能够同时容纳几十万人，我曾被邀请在观礼台上，与他们一起听时任总统内贾德誓与美国、以色列斗到底的演讲……

　　有一些老牌大国的落寞近况，也令人唏嘘不已。多次去巴黎，看到香榭丽舍大街及周边满街香烟头、地摊小商贩、猖獗的扒手，多少有种帝国夕阳感；在斯洛伐克首都布拉迪斯拉发、匈牙利首都布达佩斯、波兰首都华沙，我到处能看到涂鸦的街景与破败的楼屋，禁不住感叹昔日欧洲强国荣光的逝去与在大国夹缝中生存的不易与艰辛……

　　知名学者帕拉格·康纳在《第二世界：大国时代的全球新秩序》曾说，“第二世界国家的经历已经证明，历史并非一个天衣无缝的连续体，而是物质进步与资源匮乏、普世全球化与部落传统主义、政治联盟与分裂本能、坚持自给自足与弘扬比较优势之间进行的一场变幻莫测的竞争。”

　　中国崛起走到了“离中华民族伟大复兴最近的时刻”，以史为鉴，从那些昔日大国、区域强国、新兴经济体中吸取崛起的成功经验以及了解它们当下的状况，是相当有必要的。

　　在未来相当长一段时间内，世界多极化的趋势不可阻挡。美欧内部的撕裂、区域力量的兴盛，都会产生令人意想不到的复杂结果。对此，中国人不骄傲，更不会狂妄到想到领导世界的程度。

　　从这个角度看，还是要回到汤因比的建议：国家之间平等，文明相互尊重。这样，世界才有更好的未来。

以下为英文版

Multipolar history is a lesson for rising China

By Wang Wen

Among fellows of all think tanks, I admire British historian Arnold Joseph Toynbee (1889-1975) the most. He is best known for his 12-volume A Study of History, which contains more than 3 million words and about 7,000 pages. These tomes trace the development and decay of 19 world civilizations in the historical record, most of which can be described as the most profound illustrations of human civilization.

Toynbee served as a diplomat for several years. He had been director of studies at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, one of the world's leading think tanks, for more than 20 years. But his creative peak took place on his global tour after retirement at the age of 64. He started the voyage with his wife from London and spent nearly two years in South America, the Pacific Rim, South Asia and the Near East, as he wanted to visit peoples and places which he had already known about from books.

I am luckier than Toynbee. Because of a fast globalizing world order, convenient transportation and opportunities brought by China's rise, I have been to almost 100 countries - and I am still far from my retirement age. I have been to the US and Europe tens of times, and I have repeatedly visited some countries that are rich in history. For example, I have been to Iran eight times, Turkey five times, and Kenya three times. But due to my busy work schedule, my visits to these nations were rushed.  

Fortunately, I had worked as a journalist for eight years. Even with a glimpse, I could feel the unprecedented collective rise in the world. At the National Museum of the Republic of Kazakhstan, upon entering the hall I saw a huge map of Kazakhstan's national territory. That map reflects the ambitions of this nation which owns a history of thousands of years but only declared its sovereignty on its territory as a republic in the early 1990s. 

In Brasilia, I looked down from hundreds of meters at this city which was inaugurated as Brazil's capital in 1960. I could see the city was designed in the shape of an airplane, which reflected Brazil's desire to become a major power when the capital launched. 

In Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, local African friends proudly shared with me their understanding of their big, new, beautiful capital and their vision that the country will rise to become the continent's largest economy. 

At Tehran's Azadi Square, which can host hundreds of thousands of people, I was invited to the viewing stand and listen to the speech of then president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who vowed to fight the US and Israel to the end. 

It is sad to see that some established great powers are declining in recent years. I have been to Paris many times, and whenever I saw the Champs-élysées surrounded with streets full of cigarette butts, street vendors, and rampant pickpockets, I felt somewhat desolate for this once powerful empire. In Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia; Budapest, the capital of Hungary; and Warsaw, the capital of Poland, I saw graffiti and shabby buildings everywhere I went. I cannot help but lament the lapse of the old European powers and the difficulty and hardships the now face to survive in the fissures of today's greater powers.

The famous scholar Parag Khanna has mentioned in The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order that: "Second-world countries prove that history is less a seamless continuum than an unpredictable contest pitting material progress against resource scarcity, cosmopolitan globalization against tribalist traditionalism, political union against fissiparous instincts, and autarky against comparative advantage."

China has reached the "closest moment to the greatest rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." It is necessary for China to learn from the successful experience of the established great powers, regional powers, and emerging economies while understanding their current conditions.

For a long time to come, the multi-polarization of the world will be an unstoppable trend. The crevices between the US and Europe and the prosperity of regional powers will produce unexpected and complex results. We Chinese people are not over proud about our achievements, and leading the world is not something that we make as our aim in the multi-polar world where power is shared. 

In this respect, we should follow the wisdom of historian Arnold Toynbee: Only equality between nations and mutual respect among civilizations can bring about a better future.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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