安倍折射的东亚大变局（中英双语）

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编者按：8月28日，日本首相安倍晋三宣布，将辞去首相职务。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第49篇“变局”专栏中表示，随着中国自身实力的增加，如今看待日本的心态已变得自信与平和，这其实是东亚实力结构的巨大调整。中日实力消长的过程同样会在中美关系之间得以复制。本期人大重阳君为您推荐英文版、中文译文。

本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图

　　安倍晋三辞职的消息，在2020年8月的最后一周，成了东亚政治界最大的新闻。我曾多次去日本，二外学的是日语，当然有必要在“变局”专栏写一些与其他人不一样的看法。

　　过去14年，中国人眼中的安倍晋三形象经历了蜕变。2006年他第一次担任首相，中国期待他能力挽前任小泉纯一郎造成的紧张关系。可惜，刚一年，他就因“肚子疼”而辞职。此后，他参拜靖国神社、修改历史教科书引起了中国社会的极度不满。许多中国人看来，他更像如流星似的日本政治小丑。

　　安倍再任首相推出“安倍经济学”时，中国媒体里还一度流传着不屑与批判。但从经济数据上看，日本经济有所起色，安倍本人也创造了在任时间最长的日本首相任职纪录。现在的中国人看来，安倍已算得上值得尊敬的日本政治家。不少中国学者开始反思，为何所有人低估了安倍。

　　安倍在中国广为流传的一个故事是，当被问及为何在巴结美国总统特朗普时出现那么多丑状。他的回答是“君子豹变”，“为了国家和国民，可以丢掉面子”。这句实用主义的回答在中国是赢得好感的。

　　中国人看待日本首相的观念变化的背后，是东亚实力结构的巨大调整。中日两国，有着数千年的恩怨情仇，中国人很容易带着历史情绪看待这个搬不走的邻居。随着自身实力的增加，心态容易变得自信与平和。

　　安倍2006年任首相时，日本经济总量占全球的10%，中国经济总量仅仅是日本61%。中日关系一度还因钓鱼岛而闹得非常紧张。2012年安倍再任首相时，中国GDP已是日本的137%。2020年辞职时，日本经济总量仅有全球的5.9%，中国则为16%。中国已是日本近3倍的经济体量。如果当年安倍一度还想与中国掰掰手腕，现在恐怕只能仰天长叹了。

　　日本经济过去十多年在全球重要性的下降与总体萧条，令人唏嘘。我们这一代中国人是伴随着日本家电如松下、东芝、日立等品牌长大的。学生时代，打开电视机、广播常常听到这些品牌的广告音乐。但现在，日本品牌几乎全部退出了全球家电市场，知名的智能手机品牌中也没有来自日本的。这与过去“日本=高科技”形象完全不一样。

　　在我看来，安倍的历史贡献在于，推动日本在“中国相对崛起、美国相对衰落”历史大变局下的战略平稳过渡。如果未来日本重新回归亚洲，那么，安倍应为真正的起点。

　　安倍的战略抱负是，希望通过修宪等一系列手段，实现日本国家正常化，但他的能力不足以支撑他的远大抱负。更重要的是，国家与社会综合实力的相对衰落也转化不了他的治国理政能力。

　　可惜，伟大的政治英雄需要时代的支撑，更需要国力与国民的共同捧举。从这个角度看，安倍在日本政治史上的地位，可能不会胜过佐滕荣作、田中角荣、中曾根康弘等前任。换句话说，他更像是一个壮志未酬的悲情人物。

　　中国并不担心安倍的继任者是否会改变中日关系。只要中国持续发展，无论谁来接任安倍当首相，中日关系转缓升温的大趋势应该不会变。在日本战略史上，“趋强”是日本永远的偏好。哪个国家的实力强，日本就会倒向哪个国家。从这个角度看，美国全面退出亚洲，以中国、日本、韩国为轴的东亚一体化终将是历史潮流。

　　安倍横跨14年的首相史，反映的中日实力消长，并不意味着中国应小瞧日本。我一向主张，在社会治理与国民素质上，中国应当向日本致敬。改革开放初，中国向日本学习大量的技术，现在的日本仍有许多可取之处。

　　中日实力消长过程同样会在中美关系之间复制。现在，中国经济总量是美国的70%，两国关系变得紧张，有点像10多年前的中日关系。而一旦中国经济总量超过美国时，两国关系会变得缓和。这是我所坚信的更大的历史变局。不同的只是，下一段历史变局需要的时间会相对长一些。

安倍晋三正式宣布辞去首相职务

以下为英文版

Chinese view of Japanese PM shows seismic East Asia change

By Wang Wen

The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the biggest August 2020 news for East Asian politicians. Over the past 14 years, Abe's image has changed dramatically in Chinese people's eyes. When he became prime minister for the first time in 2006, China looked to him to ease tensions initiated by his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi. However, his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine and orders to revise history textbooks have caused deep discontent in Chinese society. To many Chinese people, he was a political clown who fell from power like a meteor. 

When Abe took office again in December 2012 and put forward "Abenomics," there was disdain and criticism in the Chinese media. But the economic data suggested the Japanese economy was picking up, and Abe became the longest serving prime minister in Japanese history. Now in China, Abe is to some extent regarded as a respectable Japanese politician.

One of Abe's most popular stories in China happened when he was asked why he appears so jolly when he fawns over US President Donald Trump. He said that a wise man mends his ways and he does not mind losing face for the sake of the country and its people. This pragmatic answer has won favor in China. The transformation in Chinese people's perceptions of a Japanese prime minister reflects a dramatic shift in the power structure of East Asia. Due to history, it is understandable that Chinese treat their neighbor with historical sentiments. Now Chinese are more confident and moderate because of the increase of China's power.

When Abe took office in 2006, Japan's economy accounted for one-tenth of the world's total, while China's was only 61 percent of Japan's.  Now accounting for about 16 percent of the world's total GDP, China's economy is about three times of Japan's.

One cannot help but feel sympathetic to see the decline in the global importance of Japan's economy and its general slump over the past decade. My generation of Chinese grew up with Japanese household appliances of brands such as Panasonic, Toshiba and Hitachi. But now, almost all Japanese brands have withdrawn from the global appliance market. None of the well known smartphone brands come from Japan. This is a far cry from the "Japan represents high-technology" image of the past.

In my opinion, Abe's historical contribution lies in the smooth strategic transition under the historical upheaval of the relative rise of China and relative decline of the US. If Japan is to focus on Asia again in the future, then Abe should be the real starting point.

Abe's strategic ambition is to "normalize" the country through a range of strategies including amending the constitution. However, he was not strong enough to support his ambitions. 

Great political heroes need support of not only the times but also the national strength and the consensus of their people. From this perspective, Abe's political status in history is unlikely to trump that of his predecessors such as Eisaku Sato, Kakuei Tanaka and Nakasone Yasuhiro. In other words, he was more of a tragic figure who had his ambitions frustrated.

China is not worried about whether Abe's successor will change China-Japan relations. As long as China continues developing, no matter who succeeds Abe, the general trend of a gradual warming of China-Japan relations should remain stable. Japan has always had the preference of tilting toward the strong. In this respect, it will be the historical trend in which the US withdraws completely from Asia while East Asia integrates with China, Japan and South Korea as the core.

However, the change of power between China and Japan does not mean that China can look down on Japan. I have always appealed that China should pay tribute to Japan in terms of social governance and education. At the beginning of China's reform and opening-up, China learned a lot of technology from Japan. Now C中日实力消长过程同样会在中美关系之间复制。hina still can draw lessons from this neighbor.

What happened in China-Japan national strength comparison will also be replicated in China-US relations. Now, China's economy is 70 percent the size of the US'. I strongly believe that once China fully surpasses the US in economy, the two countries' relationship will thaw. This is the bigger historical change I believe in, which will take more time before it comes true.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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