重新认识中国逆袭的全球效应（中英双语）

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编者按：从无到有、从弱到强的中国产业逆袭故事，比比皆是。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第51篇“变局”专栏中表示，西方媒体与观察者喜欢用显微镜观察静态的中国，试图发现“病毒”，但当发现中国有巨变时，又会震撼于中国庞然大物般的威胁。本期人大重阳君为您推荐英文版、中文译文。

本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图

　　到闽东调研，临行时，宁德市干部送我一本习近平1991年出版《摆脱贫困》一书。这个30年前他曾担任过一把手的城市，现在已完全改变“老、少、边、岛、贫”的贫困状态，人均GDP超过1.2万美元，培育了多个年产值百亿、千亿级的企业。整个城市的街道整洁热闹。晚上11点，夜市仍一片熙熙攘攘、灯红酒绿。

　　细读《摆脱贫困》，许多内容放在30年后的现在，仍有巨大意义，比如，做人须有滴水穿石精神；崇尚行动的务实精神；把心贴近群众；完善产业结构等等。从书中可管窥习近平诸多执政思想的萌芽状态，更从一个城市折射出整个国家及其各个领域摆脱贫困、走向富裕的质变。

　　三四十年前，义乌是一个穷县城，现在已是全球最大的商品集散地；深圳小渔村刚开始拆建，现在已是2000万人的国际大都市。类似这样的中国城市逆袭故事非常多。

　　不只是城市，中国的产业也如此。2000年，中国根本没有生产手机的名牌。现在，中国品牌的手机已占全球份额约49%，超过88%手机在中国制造。2000年，绝大多数中国人还不知道什么是光伏，2005年中国光伏占世界市场份额超过10%，2018年更是超过70%。

　　从无到有、从弱到强的中国产业逆袭故事，可以拉出长长的单子：现在中国生产了全世界95%的打火机、86%微波炉、78%的空调、太阳能面板76%、71%的彩电、68%的计算机、62%的冰箱、70%的鱼子酱、50%沙发……2019年中国工业生产总值连续8年排名世界第一，已是第二、三、四位的美国、德国、日本三国的总和。

　　西方媒体与观察者喜欢用显微镜的观察静态的中国，试图发现每一个细菌甚至病毒。当他们拉长时间段发现中国巨变时，又会震撼于中国庞然大物般的威胁。类似这样的观察偏差，暴露了西方很多人的思考惰性与意识形态桎梏。

　　换一个角度看，为什么这个原本处在国际经济边缘的“穷屌丝”，会逆袭进全球中心区呢？这里的全球效应正在颠覆长期以来西方理论的固有定律。

　　第一、中国逆袭没有通过战争，而靠和平手段获得。1500年来，国际经济边缘国家走到全球中心，包括英国、法国、德国、俄国、日本、美国，无一不发动或卷入了战争。中国与22个邻国常常都有一些矛盾，从未把战争手段当成首选。过去42年，中国从未发动或参与战争，是近现代全球化历史上保持和平时间最久的大国。中国的和平效应被低估了。

　　第二、国民的勤劳是支撑国家发展的基础。中国政府创造了宽松的环境、平等的机会、稳定的社会，使勤劳的中国国民有了创造财富的平台，更使从零起步的诸多产业在中国问世、发展、壮大并领衔于世界。这条经验可供100多个二战后独立且现在仍处在中低收入水平的所有发展中国家。过去西方国家提供了“经济市场化、政治民主化、治理自由化”的药方并不能改变他们的国家命运，中国经验或许可以再试一试。

　　第三、中国逆袭为世界提供了物美价廉的产品与服务，使世界在和平、稳定、多赢中持续发展。不要忘了，所有被中国逆袭的产业，其产品都在降价，比如鱼子酱当前平均价格是10年前价格的3%；多晶硅料仅5%；智能手机仅30%……

　　在经历了机械化、电力化与信息化革命的落后追赶阶段，中国在智能化革命时，呈现出来了后发领先优势，在云计算、大数、人工智能开始站在世界领先水平的第一阵营中。当然，仍然还有半导体、航空发动机等近30个核心技术堡垒，中国还没有攻破，尚未逆袭。

　　可以想像，未来中国的逆袭故事会更精彩。

以下为英文版

Story of China’s comeback invigorating

By Wang Wen

After I finished my research in East China's Fujian Province, a local official of Ningde gave me a book titled Up and out of Poverty, a compilation of Xi Jinping's major works from September 1988 to May 1990 while he worked in the city. Now, Ningde has completely been lifted out of poverty with its GDP per capita exceeding $12,000. It  has fostered many enterprises with annual output values of tens of millions of dollars. The streets are clean and lively. At 11 pm, the night market is still bustling with lights and revelry.

Thirty to forty years ago, Yiwu in East China's Zhejiang Province was just a poor county while South China's Shenzhen, which was a small fishing village at that time, just started its revolution. Now Yiwu is the world's largest commodity distribution center, and Shenzhen has become an international metropolis with 20 million residents. Similar stories about Chinese cities' development from scratch are abundant.

Industries in China have been developing fast as well. In 2000, China didn't own any famous brand of mobile phones. But now, Chinese-branded phones account for half of the global market, while roughly 88 percent of the world's mobile phones are assembled in China. Also in 2000, the vast majority of Chinese people did not know what photovoltaic was. However, only five years later, China accounted for more than 10 percent of the world market share for photovoltaic, and in 2018, more than 70 percent.

China was once underdeveloped in production, but now it has come back to lead the world with various industries. The list can be excessively long. For example, China now produces 95 percent of the world's lighters, 86 percent of microwave ovens, 78 percent of air conditioners and 76 percent of solar panels. China has been leading the world in terms of annual industry value added since 2011.

Western media and observers tend to analyze a static China through microscopes. But when they realize China's cataclysmic changes over a long period, they are shocked by the enormity of the country and thus feel threatened. Such biases expose the intellectual inertia and ideological shackles of many Westerners.

From another perspective, why did China, which used to be wandering around the edge of international economy, turn into the center stage? The impact of globalization is overthrowing long-held Western theories.

First, China's rise was not gained through war, but through peaceful means. In the past 1,500 years, countries that walked from the edge of international economy to the global center stage, including the UK, France, Germany, Russia, Japan and the US, either launched a war or got involved in wars. China from time to time has had conflicts with its 22 neighboring countries, but it has never viewed war as a priority. In the past 40 years, China has never launched or participated in a war. It is the very country that has remained peaceful for the longest time in the modern history of globalization. The impact of peace in China has been underestimated.

Second, the diligence of people is the basis for national development. The Chinese government has created a relaxed environment, equal opportunities and stable society, enabling diligent people to create fortunes. Many industries started from zero but thrived and even took a leading role in the world.

More than 100 developing countries, which became independent after World War II but are still at the level of middle and low income, can learn from China's experience. In the past, Western countries had provided those countries with the therapy of "economic marketization, political democratization and governance liberalization," but they failed to change the destiny of developing countries. Perhaps China's experience can be a reference for the developing world.

Third, China has stricken back to be a strong nation that offers products and services that are attractive in price and quality for the world, making the world develop in peace and stability with win-win formats.

Though China lags behind in the mechanization, power and information revolution, it has caught up in the intelligence revolution. It is ranked among the world's leading group in cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence. Now China hasn't made a breakthrough in core technologies such as semiconductors and aero-engines. But it is expected that the story of China's comeback in these sectors will be more invigorating.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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