不一样的大国缠斗（中英双语）

点击蓝字关注我们

本文大概1400字，读完共需2分钟

编者按：美国想让中国痛，自己也一定会感到痛。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第52篇“变局”专栏中表示，中国优秀的国际化企业正在融化为全球化肌体中的空气与血液，美国政府没有力量摆脱。未来，中美摩擦将会是常态化的缠斗，这是一场新型的大国博弈。本期人大重阳君为您推荐英文版、中文译文。

本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图

　　美国总统特朗普近日批准了甲骨文、沃尔玛与TikTok合作协议，意味着此前他对TikTok“强卖”式的打压最终没有成功，更意味着继华为之后，走向国际的中国企业再次智慧地化解了美国霸权式的打压，还意味着中美两国博弈呈现出了传统大国竞争所没有的特征。

　　按照哈佛大学教授格拉厄姆·艾利森的统计，1500年以来16组守成大国和崛起国家对抗，多数都是通过军事冲突、经贸制裁、战略围堵等方式展开，但中美博弈的重心却是试图摆脱对方自己国内社会的影响。

　　美国对华为、TikTok、微信等公司等投资与使用非常提防，甚至一些美国政客提出中美脱钩。当前的事实是，脱钩并不容易，政客的企图，恐怕抵不过市场化、全球化的力量。

　　中国企业走向国际的进程，是一个让产品更价廉物美、让世界变得更好更美的过程。华为公司让手机更好更便宜、TikTok让个人生活更精彩，这些产品全球很需要，美国人最终也不能割舍。

　　以TikTok协议看，此前反对声音最大的，是来源于美国国内的青年用户。最终，特朗普妥协了。TikTok仍保留大部分股权和核心算法的控制权，与此次美国政府强压TikTok卖给竞争对手Facebook或微软的目标相差甚远。华为同样如此，过去两年，华为手机在全球的销量年均增长率超过20%。可见，中国优秀的国际化企业正在融化为全球化肌体中的空气与血液，美国政府没有力量摆脱。

　　虽然未来之路仍很艰难，但这次TikTok在美国市场的存活与发展，又一次坚定了人们对美国权力的虚张声势。

　　特朗普自诩自己赢得了这次协议。实际上，无论是华为，还是TikTok，在全球唯一超级大国美国的打压下，仍能继续活下去，且还有较大发展，这是美国权力的虚弱与中国企业的韧性的最大折射。

　　我曾调研数十家中国外贸企业，没有任何一家大企业亡于美国的贸易战、技术战，相反，许多中国企业在美国打压下变得越勇敢、越成熟、越成长。中国企业走出去，正在学会充分运用法律和市场手段与美国霸权周旋。

　　当然，一个重要背景是，中国对美国“斗而不破”式的反制。中国后发制人，通过出台不可靠清算、制裁反华美国官员等对美国进行对等反制。美国对中国动粗的决策前，不得不考虑中国的务实反制的可能性。

　　换句话说，美国想让中国痛，自己也一定会感到痛。对中国想压、又怕、又不甘心、还不敢彻底绝裂，这是目前美国决策层的普遍心态。

　　不过，中国人并不骄傲。打败美国，从来不是中国的目标，相反，尽可能地与美国合作，促进自身发展，才是中国务实诉求。这可视为是大国博弈文明化的新进程。21世纪的大国竞争，不一定是你死我活、你赢我输的“零和游戏”，更有可能是你赚得多一些、我赚得少一些的“长期买卖”。

　　中国人当然有底线思维，做最坏的打算。近年来，不少中国的声音都在担心中美发生冷战甚至热战的可能性。但中国人在尽最大的努力与设最好的目标。

　　由此看，在我看来，未来十年甚至更长的时间，中美未来摩擦将是常态化，博弈最有可能是缠斗，而不是一边倒的武斗、恶斗。这是一场新型的大国博弈。中国人要有思想准备，世界也得要有心理预期。

　　对国际社会而言，要在相当长时间里适应中美两国既斗争又合作的新常态，不必选边站，也不必大惊小怪。对美国而言，要消除想把中国打垮的不切实际之幻想，美国连中国的一家公司都打不垮，更何况是中国本身。对中国而言，则需要以更现实主义的眼光看待美国。

　　美国不再是“美丽的国家”。中国人不必崇美、恐美，也不必恨美、反美。美国不是中国敌人，也不是中国朋友。保持平常心与定力，走出去的中国公司，如果能够一切按法律、按市场规律来运营，一定能走得更远、更好！

以下为英文版

Tech agreement shows China-US entanglement no longer easy

By Wang Wen

US President Donald Trump said Saturday that he had approved "in concept" a deal in which Oracle and Walmart would partner with TikTok in the US. This means his previous suppression of TikTok has failed. It also means that after Huawei, another Chinese company going global has wisely been able to resolve US hegemonic suppression. 

The colossal competition between China and the US has shown features that do not exist in traditional struggles between major powers. The US is very wary of the investment and use of Huawei, TikTok and WeChat. Some US politicians have even proposed China-US decoupling. The current reality is that decoupling is not easy. US politicians' attempts may not be able to defeat marketization and globalization.

Previously, teenage users of TikTok in the US strongly opposed the app's ban in the country. Finally, Trump compromised. TikTok still retains most of the equity and control of the core algorithm, which is far from the US administration's goal of forcing TikTok to sell itself to its rivals such as Facebook or Microsoft. 

The same is true for Huawei. Over the past two years, the average annual growth rate of Huawei's mobile phone sales worldwide has exceeded 20 percent. China's outstanding international companies are merging with globalization. And the US has simply no power to stop it.

Although the road ahead is still difficult, TikTok's survival and development in the US market has once again shown US politicians are bluffing over the country's purported power.

Trump prides himself on winning the TikTok agreement. But in fact, the survival and development of Huawei and TikTok, under the suppression of the world's only superpower, is the biggest reflection of the weakness of the US power and the resilience of Chinese companies.

I have investigated dozens of Chinese companies engaging in foreign trade. None of them has died in the US-initiated trade and technology war against China. On the contrary, many have become braver and more mature. Chinese companies are learning to make full use of the legal and market means to deal with US hegemony.

An important background, of course, is China's tactful response to the US. China unveiled "unreliable entities list" rules and imposed sanctions on anti-China US officials following the US provocative actions. The US should have considered the possibility of a pragmatic response from China before it decided to act aggressively against it.

In other words, if the US wants China to feel the pain, it must feel the pain itself.

Chinese people are not arrogant, nor do they seek global political and security dominance as the US does. Defeating the US has never been China's goal. On the contrary, China's pragmatic aspiration is to cooperate with the US as much as possible to promote its own development. 

This can be regarded as a new process of a civilized "great power" game. This great power competition in the 21st century is not necessarily a zero-sum game in which "you" win and "I" lose. It is more likely to be a long-term business in which "you" earn more and "I" earn less.

The Chinese, of course, have a bottom-line mentality and are prepared for the worst-case scenario. In recent years, some voices in China have been worried about the possibility of a cold war or even a hot war between China and the US. 

In my opinion, in the next decade or more, the frictions between China and the US will be normalized. The game is most likely to be an entanglement rather than a one-sided battle or a violent confrontation. 

It is neither necessary for the international community to take sides nor be surprised when they adapt to the new normal as both struggle and cooperation between China and the US play out over a longer period of time. Washington now should dispel all illusions that it can crush Beijing. It cannot defeat even a Chinese company, let alone China the country. 

For China, we need to view the US in a more realistic light too.

The US is no longer the beautiful country as its name in Chinese, 美国 (meiguo), suggests. And Chinese people need not worship or fear the US. Nor hate or oppose it. The US is not China's enemy. Nor is it China's friend as we had expected it to be. If Chinese companies can operate in accordance with laws and market rules, they will surely go further and better.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）

推荐阅读

喜欢人大重阳君，就请加个星标吧！

// 人大重阳    

/// 

RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

扫二维码｜关注我们

微信号｜rdcy2013

新浪微博｜@人大重阳

我知道你“在看”哟～