编者按：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版11月10日刊发第58篇“变局”专栏，比较了拜登执政理念与“十四五规划”，指出两者有高度吻合之处。他表示若拜登不食言，中美虽仍有摩擦，但也会有更多合作，“新的创富时代有可能到来”。本期人大重阳君为您推荐专栏的中英文版。
本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图
就在所有美国媒体宣布拜登已当选美国新一任总统那晚，我与“拒绝冷战”国际倡议组织合作，邀请中国、美国、欧洲、拉美等多国学者，举办了“未来中美关系”主题研讨会。“拒绝冷战”倡议得到了全球响应。7月25日的一场全球直播，得到了超过2亿点击量关注。这次同样吸引人，在Youtube和中文新媒体平台数千条的留言与评论显示，所有人都希望拜登能扭转中美的紧张关系。世界不应总是被一种危险的冷战状态所笼罩。这或许是彭佩奥们“新冷战”企图无法得逞的重要背景。试想，占全球经济总量40%以上的中美两个国家，一旦真发生冷战，经济脱钩，贸易重组，势必会影响全球每一个人的生活。这不是每一个人愿意看到的。我相信，拜登也不愿意看到。拜登在《外交》期刊2020年第2期撰文曾说，他领导的政府将“为中产阶级制定外交政策”，这包括大量投资基础设施，提升医疗保健水平，领导清洁革命，还将在量子计算机、人工智能、5G、高铁等领域加上开发与投资。这个承诺肯定不可能靠对华发动新冷战而实现，恰恰相反，得靠全球合作，尤其是与中国的合作。事实上，拜登的承诺与10月底中国通过的十四五规划建议高度吻合。未来五年，中国将进行“关键核心技术攻坚战”，这包括人工智能、量子信息、集成电路、生命健康、脑科学、生物育种、空天科技、深地深海等，还将推动产业基础高级化、产业链现代化等战略。 与美国新冷战，不在中国五年计划内。长达20129字的十四五规划与2035年远景目标的建议稿中，一次未提“美国”。在对外关系上，文稿中讲到多次“高水平对外开放”，“建立新型国际关系”，“营造良好外交部环境”等等。这一切为与拜登“为中产阶级制定外交政策”的合作奠定了基础。中国中等收入群体已超过4亿。2020年中国将有望成为全球最大的消费市场，而潜力仍远未释放。中国人的人均消费不及美国人的1/4。预计未来10年累计商品进口额将超过22万亿美元，超过美国2019年GDP总量。比如2020年前三季度，中国肉类进口741万吨，同比增长达到惊人的72%；进口金额231亿美元，同比增长83%。进口来源基本涵盖近40个全球最主要的猪、牛、羊、禽等肉类生产国，而美国是主要的进口来源国。其实，整个贸易界都在用实际行动，显示对“去特朗普化”、“去冷战化”强劲立场。2020年前10个月，中美贸易加速回升，中国对美国出口增长了3.6%；自美国进口增长5.2%。对美贸易占中国外贸总值已回升到12.3%，特朗普发动贸易战的后遗症正在治愈。中美两国投资界也在努力。中国公司赴美上市筹集资金的数额，2020年前8个月就超过2019年总额。美资（比如高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通）在中国金融市场的持有量也超过2019年。中国金融服务业市场规模达45万亿美元，基金管理资产未来三年可达到30万亿美元。2021年1月入主白宫的拜登如果不负贸易、金融与国际社会各界期待，扭转中美紧张状态的话，那么，一场有利于中产阶级的新变局或将发生，甚至可说，一场新的造富时代正在到来。这场造富运动不是源于房地产或互联网，而是源于中美可能缓和而出现的科技创新浪潮，以及相对应的国际发展战略，这包括新一轮的科技投资、贸易增长、金融开放等等。特朗普的疯狂警示人们，所谓“美国第一”、“让美国再次伟大”的设想，不应只是口号与斗争换得，而应有生命健康、生活美满、财富增长为依托。后者只有通过合作而获得。当然，对拜登领导下的美国可能会带来的风险，中国已有充足的心理准备。两个大国在拥挤与复杂的地球村，不可能没有矛盾与摩擦，但关键是双方都应为了满足民众追求更美好生活需求而不断化解分歧。我始终认为，中美之间未来谁能在竞争中胜出，关键不是布“新冷战”之局且试图胜出，而是谁更能创造美好社会，并帮助全世界构建更好的未来。
以下为英文版
Era of fresh wealth follows US election
By Wang Wen
On the night when all US media declared the victory of Joe Biden as the new US president, I invited scholars from China, the US, Europe and Latin America to collaborate with the No Cold War campaign to a seminar themed "the Future of China-US relations."The initiative of "No Cold War" has gained global popularity. A live-cast on July 25 gained more than 200 million hits. The latest seminar has also gained massive attention. The comments on YouTube and Chinese social networks showed all people hope that Biden can change the course of tense China-US relations. The world should not always be overshadowed by a dangerous Cold War mentality.Perhaps this is one of the important backgrounds that underscore the new cold war intentions led by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his likes. Once China and the US, which take up 40 percent of the global economy, engage in a new cold war with economic decoupling and trade redistribution, it will surely affect the lives of everyone on the planet. No one would like to see such a scenario. I believe Biden does not like to see this either.In an article in Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this year, Biden wrote that his administration will equip Americans "to succeed in the global economy - with a foreign policy for the middle class." This includes investment on infrastructure, Medicare, clean energy, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 5G and high-speed rails.The promise certainly cannot be realized by launching a new cold war against China. On the contrary, it must rely on global cooperation, especially cooperation with China. In fact, Biden's commitment is highly consistent with China's 14th Five-Year Plan proposal, adopted at the end of October. In the next five years, China will seek to achieve core technologies including artificial intelligence, quantum information, integrated circuits, healthcare, brain science, aerospace technology, deep sea research, etc. China will also promote advanced industrial basis and industrial chain modernization.A new cold war with the US is not part of China's five-year plan. In the detailed proposals for the 14th Five-Year Plan and the long-range objectives through 2035, the US was not mentioned. In terms of foreign relations, the plan mentioned opening up to the outside world at a higher level, building a new type of international relations and creating a favorable external environment. These can lay the foundation for cooperation with Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class."China has more than 400 million middle-income earners. In 2020, China is expected to become the world's largest consumer market, but the potential is far from being released. China's per capita consumption is less than a quarter of that of the US. China is estimated to import $22 trillion worth of products in the next 10 years, and to exceed the US' GDP in 2019. China imported 7.41 million tons of meat worth $23.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2020, a year-on-year growth of 72 percent and 83 percent respectively. China has imported meat products, such as pork, beef, mutton and poultry from more than 40 countries and regions around the world, covering almost all meat export countries.As a matter of fact, the whole trade community is taking pragmatic measures to display its hard-line stance to combat Trumpism and a cold war mind-set. In the first 10 months of 2020, China's exports to the US increased 3.6 percent year-on-year and its imports from the US increased 5.2 percent. The after effect of the trade war launched by Trump is starting to heal.The Chinese and the US investment communities are also making efforts. The amount of funds raised by Chinese companies on the US stock market from January to August exceeded that of the whole year of 2019. The scale of China's financial market to foreign investors can reach $45 trillion, and China asset management industry is expected to hit $30 trillion by 2023.If Biden, who will take office in 2021, reverses China-US tensions as expected by trade, finance, and international communities, a new shift in favor or the middle class would take place. A fresh era of wealth creation is coming. This movement is not rooted in real estate or the internet, but in the waves of technological innovations that arise from the potential to-be eased relations between the US and China as well as the corresponding international development strategies. These include a new round of investment in science and technology, trade increase, financial openness, and so on.Trump's craziness reminds people that the idea of "America first" and "Making America Great Again" should not just be slogans, but should be based on life, health, happiness and wealth growth, which can only be achieved through cooperation.Admittedly, a Biden administration might also bring risks, but China is well prepared. In the crowded and complex international community, it is impossible for two major countries to live without conflicts and frictions. But the key is that both sides should constantly make efforts to resolve differences so as to meet the needs of their people in pursuit of a better life.I have always believed that the future competition between China and the US is not about setting up a new cold war or trying to win, but about who is more capable to create a better society and help build a better future for the whole world.（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. ）
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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