批得好！陆克文公开怒斥蓬佩奥：他很不负责任

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编者按：近日，针对美国国务卿蓬佩奥表示将解除美国与台湾官员交往限制，澳大利亚前总理、亚洲协会会长兼首席执行官陆克文（Kevin Rudd）接受CNBC采访时称，蓬佩奥所作所为是给即将上台的拜登政府埋下一系列地雷，这是不负责任的。以下为CNBC部分采访内容的中英文版及双语视频。

CNBC采访视频

主持人：你回顾了1979年的《与台湾关系法》及2020年年底前完成的《台湾保证法》的历史，你还谈到了其中涉及的风险，你认为即将上任的拜登政府迄今为止，会不会明确担保美国保护或美国给予台湾援助，如果台湾受到攻击甚至大陆的“入侵”，或将不仅仅是玩笑开过头了，但是这确实是几乎被中国视为宣战吗?

陆克文：我认为了解蓬佩奥现在的动机很重要。蓬佩奥所做的是给即将上台的拜登政府埋下一系列地雷，而且他在美中关系方面做的撒盐行为实际上是套用类比与公元前第二和第三世纪迦太基战争中的那样，尤其是在台湾问题上铺设地雷。其中的政治目的是确保蓬佩奥和他的团队在午夜前一分钟提出的任何强硬立场的改变，假如这些改变得到拜登政府的支持。然后蓬佩奥就可以在未来的四年里随意攻击拜登，攻击拜登政府对北京的态度变得“软弱”，并为北京的安全考量提供便利。因为蓬佩奥本人希望成为2024年共和党提名的候选人。我认为这不是执行美国国家安全政策的正确方式，因为我可以以一个来自于和美国关系紧密的盟友国的人来说：这是不负责任的。 

对你的问题的第二部分：关于拜登政府将要做什么？我没看到拜登政府采取的新政策中对台湾有明确的军事支持，而且共和党和民主党长期以来在台湾问题上已经战略模糊，这是为了引起台北方面足够的疑虑，而不是使台湾接受任何鲁莽政策，例如：单方面“宣布独立”并假设美国将会立即派遣第五骑兵团来保卫台湾。与此同时，北京的战略考量也很模糊，即假设北京认为美国在任何涉及大陆对台湾采取军事行动的情况下都不会采取行动，那么中国的这种假设就大错特错了。换句话说，到目前为止，这是战略上的不确定性，我认为这不会改变。

主持人：克文，在蓬佩奥国务卿发表这些声明后，我们可能会看到北京方面习惯性的愤怒反应，但你是否从宏观上认为北京的领导层是否明白蓬佩奥的这些行动，是一个黄昏政府的最后喘息，而拜登将采取一种更务实(如果不是微妙的)的方式来重置关系？

陆克文：我认为，理解中国在所有涉台政策问题上，所坚持的根本利益是非常重要的。（台湾问题）是中国内部政治的“圣杯”，是自1949年革命以来中国人心中尚未解决的问题，不像其他任何事情一样，可能成为美中关系中的问题，（台湾问题）也是中国最关心的国家安全和政治问题。我这么说的原因是，我们不能想当然地认为他们（中国领导人）会坐下来，抽一支熊猫香烟，坐在扶手椅上带着他们的“阿尼马格斯”（动物巫师），泡着一杯中国茶，然后说：“好吧，这只是美国的政治在起作用。”我希望我能向所有人保证这一点，但我并不一定这么认为。我认为我们可能会在未来一周到十天内面临一些严重的不稳定。请记住，在中国的内部政治中也有许多断层线，每当面对像蓬佩奥这样的直接挑衅时，没有人希望在台湾问题上被视为软弱。

主持人：克文，你的评论很有意思，我们将在稍后的节目中继续讨论你提到的中美两国发生冲突的可能性。

 CNBC采访视频截图

以下为英文版

Host: So, you’ve backtracked through history, the 1979 Relations Act then just before the close of the year the Taiwan Assurance Act as well, and you are talking about the risks involved here. Do you think the incoming Biden Administration is going to so far,or as far, to explicitly guarantee the US protection or the US coming to the aid of Taiwan if indeed it does come under attack or perhaps even ‘invasion’ of China, or would that be not just a step too far, but would that literally be considered by China as almost a declaration of war.

Rudd: I think it’s important to understand what are Mike Pompeo’s motivations right now. What Pompeo is doing is laying a whole series of landmines for the incoming Biden Administration,and what his doing is, in fact, is to paraphrase the analogy with the Carthaginian wars of the second and the third centuries B.C.,is salting the earth in the US - China relationship in general, and laying landmines on Taiwan in particular. And the politics of it is to ensure any change to any of those hardline positions put in a one minute to midnight by Pompeo and his team if those changes are embraced by the Biden Administration. Then Pompeo will be free to attack Biden, and attack the administration as having gone ‘soft’ on Beijing, and become accommodation of Beijing’s security concerns for the next four years. Because Pompeo himself wishes to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican Nomination. I don’t think that’s the right way to conduct the national security policy of the United States of America, because the reason I can say that in my judgement is that I come from a country which is a close ally of the United States: It’s just irresponsible.

On the second part of your question which is, what will the Biden Administration do, I do not see the Biden Administration adopting a new policy of explicit military support for Taiwan, and the long-standing tradition between administrations of both colorations (Republican and Democrat) on Taiwan has been strategic ambiguity —— that is to cause sufficient doubt in Taipei and not to cause the Taiwanese to embrace any reckless policies, like a unilateral ‘declaration of independence’on the assumption that America would immediately send in the fifth cavalry and defend Taiwan.

While at the same time, ambiguity in Beijing’s strategic calculus that if Beijing was to assume that the United States would never act under any military scenario involving a mainland military action against Taiwan, that assumption by the Chinese would be severely misplaced. So, in other words, that’s the strategic ambiguity up until now, I do not think that as changing.

Host: Kevin, we will probably see the customary responses of outrage from Beijing after these pronouncements from Secretary Pompeo. But do you think broadly, the leadership in Beijing does understand that these actions are from Pompeo are the last gasps of a twilight administration, and Biden will adopt a more pragmatic (if not nuanced) approach to resetting relations？

Rudd: I think it is really important to understand the fundamental importance which the Chinese Communist Party attaches to all Taiwan policy-related matters. This (Taiwan) is the ‘holy grail’ of internal Chinese Communist Party politics, it’s the unresolved question in the Communist Party’s mind from 1949 revolution, it’s not just like anything else which may become a problem in the US-China relationship. This (Taiwan) is front and center,the number-one, national security and political concern on the part of the Chinese Communist Party. And the reason I say that is we can’t just assume that they will all sit back, pull out a panda cigarette, and sort of relax in their armchairs, with their animaguses and a cup of Chinese Tea, and say: ‘Well, that’s just American politics at play.’

I wish I could assure everybody that’s the case, but I am not necessarily of that view. I think we could be in, for some serious instability in the week to ten days ahead. And remember in internal Chinese politics there are also many fault lines, and no one wishes to be seen to be weak on Taiwan when you have such a direct provocation such as we’ve just seen now from Pompeo.

Host: Kevin, very interesting comments that and we will continue to talk about the potential for both US and China to be on that collision course that you warned about later on in the programme.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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