拜登真的有资源制约中国吗？FT首席外事评论员：比较困难！

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编者按：近日，英国《金融时报》首席外事评论员吉迪恩·拉赫曼接受CGTN《对话思想者》主持人王冠采访，就拜登时期的中美关系发表看法。他认为特朗普执政时期对抗中国的思维会得到延续，但拜登政府制衡中国崛起会相对更有策略。本文转自3月9日“CGTN”微信公众号，原标题为《拜登是否会延续特朗普时期的对抗中国思维？》。人大重阳对本次采访提供协助与支持。

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王冠：说到中美关系，我们看到拜登政府成员，新任国务卿安东尼·布林肯，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦不久前谈论了两国之间复杂的关系。二人表示对华关系既有合作的一面，也有对抗的一面。您如何看待拜登上台之后的中美关系走向？

拉赫曼：我认为这是全世界面临的最重要的问题。因为中美是当今世界的两个大国，所以对各国而言，中美两国处理好双边关系十分重要，我认为中美关系的可预见性将逐步增强。众所周知，特朗普是一个很没有章法的人，前一刻还说习近平主席是他最好的朋友，后一刻便称中国是世界上最邪恶的国家，甚至抛出所谓“中国病毒”等言论。

我认为拜登政府（对华）态度将更加一贯。而且我认为中美关系的重点会落在两国可以开展合作的领域。我们已经谈到了其中一个领域，即防止气候变化，我认为中美两国可能会寻求，达成某种贸易协议。虽然我觉得这对两国而言是个难题，但却很有看点。

你刚提到的那些例子，有人被问到下面这个问题，我记不清是谁了，反正是拜登政府成员，您是否会将华为留在“实体名单”上，这样美国公司就无法与之开展业务？他们没有给出一个标准答案，没有斩钉截铁地回答是或不是，我认为这说明美政府内部还在商议这件事。

而我认为这反映了一个事实，即特朗普带来的一些变化将继续存在，美国出于我们刚才谈到的原因，就是在采访之初说到的那些原因，担心自己在国际上地位受到影响。面对中国这个“一党制”国家的崛起，美国会比奥巴马时期更具对抗性。

有意思的是库尔特·坎贝尔，这位白宫的亚洲事务主管，在奥巴马时期也做过类似的工作。他曾在美国国务院工作，但却是对华政策制定的主导者，他在过去的几年里写道，他觉得自己误判了形势，表示自己和以前的政策制定者，对中国的崛起有些麻痹大意，他们本应该采取更加强硬的对华政策。

所以我认为特朗普并非是对抗政策的始作俑者，他只不过强化了对抗政策而这种政策将继续存在，但我认为拜登政府在执行这一政策时将更加专注更讲策略、我想他们会试着拉拢盟友。相比之下，特朗普不太擅长团结美国盟友。因为有时候，他对韩国比对中国更强硬。

王冠：但是拉赫曼先生，拜登接手的美国难道不是内部更加分裂了吗？您认为他真的有资源来制约中国吗？

拉赫曼：确实更加分裂了，这个问题还真问到点上了。我认为美国的外交政策是有些矛盾的。我指的是他们对中国的态度。如果你看看他们对外交政策的总体评价，国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文和其他人都表示我们的主要任务是重建美国，我们将集中精力解决这个问题。这便会对外交政策产生影响。  

因为他们已经明确了一件事，他们真的对达成新的贸易协议不感兴趣，因为这些贸易协议在美国中西部腹地非常不受欢迎，人们觉得这就像把工作机会拱手让给其他国家。但是如果没有这些贸易协议，他们就缺少了一件重要工具来制约中国在亚洲的影响力。

众所周知中国签署了《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》，这非常重要，中国现已完成中欧贸易投资协定的谈判。我认为美国，在一段时间内不会加入贸易协议博弈，所以要制约中国还是比较困难的。

我想顺便说一下，这让美国盟友也陷入困难的境地。不少美国盟友，和美国一样，对于中国的外交政策以及国内政治表示关切。但他们在经济上与中国也有很大的交集。

如果美国不在经济领域开出更好的条件，美国盟友就会处于很尴尬的境地。澳大利亚就是个例子，他们寄希望于美国政府提供安全和政治保障，但又与中国有着重要的经贸关系，因此这些盟友容易陷入分裂。

以下为英文版

Wang Guan: Talking about U.S.-China relations, we heard from the Biden people, Antony Blinken, the new secretary of state, Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, talking about this complicated relationship, saying that there are cooperative as well as adversarial aspects in the relations with China. Where do you see U.S.-China relations going forward now that Biden has been sworn in?

Gideon Rachman: I think it's the single most important issue facing the world, because these are the two great powers of the world now. So it's very important for everybody that they manage their relationship. I think that they will become less unpredictable on a day-to-day basis. Trump, as we all got to know, was a very undisciplined guy, would swing from, one day that Xi Jinping was his greatest friend, then the next day China was the most evil country in the world and had released the China virus, etc.

I think that there will be much more consistency of tone from the Biden administration. And I think that there will be more emphasis on some areas where the two countries can work together. We've talked about one of them particularly, climate. I think that they probably will seek to come to some sort of trade deal. Although I think it's a difficult one for them. It's very interesting.

You mentioned the testimony there, that they were asked, for example, I can't remember who it was, one of the Biden people was asked, would you keep Huawei on the Entity List, as a company that American companies cannot do business with? And they couldn't really answer correctly. They didn't have a yes or no answer, which suggests to me there's still a debate going on in Washington.

And I think that reflects the fact that some of the changes that Trump has brought in will persist, that the United States for the reasons that we were talking about right at the beginning of the interview, this concern about the implications for America's position in the world of the rise of China and the rise of a one-party state, will remain more adversarial than it was even during the Obama years.

And it's interesting that Kurt Campbell, who is the Asia supremo in the White House, and did the same job, more or less for Obama. He was at the State Department, but was the guiding thinker behind their policy, has written in the last couple of years that he thinks he got it wrong to some extent, that he and previous policy makers were too relaxed about the rise of China, and that they should be tougher.

And so I think that that element of confrontation that Trump introduced – didn't introduce, but he accentuated it – will remain. But I think that they're gonna try to be more focused and more strategic about it. And I think they're gonna try and bring in allies. So that one of the things that Trump was particularly inept at was rallying America's alliance network. Because at times, he was more aggressive with, say, South Korea than he was with China.

Wang Guan: But Mr. Rachman, don't you think Biden somehow is inheriting a more divided America? And do you think he has the resources really to deal with China?

Gideon Rachman: Absolutely. That's completely the right question. And I think that there is a contradiction in the kind of attention in American foreign policy. Because, in fact, I was talking about what they say about China. If you look at what they say about foreign policy generally, Jake Sullivan, the national security director, and others, say our major task is to rebuild the United States itself, and that "we are going to concentrate on that." And that immediately has foreign policy implications.

Because one of the things that they've made clear is that they're really not interested in doing new trade deals, because those are very, very unpopular in the heartlands of America, because people feel it's like shipping jobs overseas. But without those trade deals, they don't really have one of the main tools for pushing back against Chinese influence in Asia.

As you know, China has recently signed RCEP, which is a very big deal. China has done the EU-China trade investment deal. America is not, I think, going to be in the trade deal game for a while. That is going to be difficult.

And I think incidentally, it's difficult for America's allies as well, because I think a lot of them share America's concerns about Chinese foreign policy, Chinese domestic politics. But they also are very enmeshed with China economically.

And if America is not making a counter-offer economically, they are in this awkward position, which Australia actually exemplifies of looking to the United States and to Washington for security and political policy, but having their major economic relationship with China, and that is very difficult for them.

Special thanks to Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY).

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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