俄媒专访：普京冬奥访华，意味深长

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编者按：俄罗斯总统普京春节大年初四访华，为新华社撰文，签15个中俄合作大单，发中俄共同声明，出席冬奥会开幕式。俄罗斯知名期刊《Eurasia EXPERT》2022年2月8日刊发就此对中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、国务院参事室金融中心研究员王文的专访。在问答中，透露了诸多重要的细节。现将专访中、英文内容推荐如下，俄文实录可点击此查看。

Eurasia EXPERT：俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京为中国新华社撰写了一篇文章，他在文章中谈到了俄中关系的伙伴关系和未来。《俄罗斯和中国：面向未来的战略伙伴关系》一文是在俄罗斯领导人访问北京前夕发表的。你如何评价俄罗斯总统的文章？这篇文章在中国是如何收到的？你能从他的文章中挑出哪些主要论点？

王文：普京总统在新华社撰文，在中国引起了巨大的影响。与此同时，他还接受了央视总台台长的书面采访。新华社是世界第一大新闻通讯社，每天拥有数亿的读者。央视总台则是全球拥有最多观众的电视台。普京总统选择新华社刊文与接受央视总台的专访，说明其对中国媒体非常了解，希望有更多中国人能够读到他的所思所想。更重要的是，2月4日，普京总统来华出席冬奥会开幕式，与中华人民共和国主席习近平9年来第38次见面会晤，期间又签署《中俄关于国际关系进入新时代和全球可持续发展的联合声明》，见证15项中俄合作协议。2月4日，是中国春节期间第四天，又是中国农历立春，又是冬奥开幕，普京总统用撰文、出席、声明、签约等多彩方式，在中国掀起了多年未见的“俄罗斯热”。正如普京总统撰文中提到：“俄中全面战略协作伙伴关系进入新时代，达到了前所未有的水平，成为高效、负责和面向未来的典范”，两个大国能够如何互信、合作、高效，是两国人民之幸，也是世界之幸。

Eurasia EXPERT：俄罗斯总统在文章中说，我们两国正在形成一个互利的能源联盟。文章说：“除了向中国长期运送俄罗斯碳氢化合物外，我们还计划实施一些重大的联合项目。”与俄罗斯在能源领域的合作如何影响并正在影响中国和整个亚洲地区的能源安全？

王文：“互利的能源联盟”的说法，在中国能源界引起很大的反响。中俄经济与能源互补性很强，两国能源的合作是互利共赢的。当前中国是全球石油第一大进口国，俄罗斯对中国的石油出口递增战略，是普京总统做出的正确决策。2003年，中国原油进口仅7%左右源于俄罗斯与中亚地区；2019年中国原油进口源于俄罗斯的比例上升至15%。这16年里，中国原油进口年均增长10%左右，GDP从2003年占世界约3%左右、居世界第7位上升到2019年占世界约15%、稳居世界第2位。这说明俄罗斯分享了中国经济发展的成果，也为中国经济发展做出重要贡献。不过，2021年，随着中国采取低碳发展战略，中国原油进口量20年来第一次下降，俄罗斯继续扩大对中国的原油出口，意味着中国将减少其他进口国（如非洲、拉丁美洲一些国家）的比例，从这个角度看，中俄加大合作的速度应该更快一些，对欧亚地区经济一体化进程的推动还将继续深化。

Eurasia EXPERT：中俄两国领导人在北京举行会谈。据指出，去年中俄贸易额超过1400亿美元，创历史新高。与此同时，这些国家打算将其增加到2000-2500亿美元。中国方面宣布，打算将两国之间的贸易额提高到2500亿美元。您认为将两国贸易额提高到2000-2500亿美元的任务有多现实？您认为，双边经贸合作如何实现这些指标？

王文：2021年中俄贸易额超过1400亿美元，增长26%。两国领导人确定中俄贸易达到2000-2500亿美元的目标，就是在2021年基础上再增长42%-78%。只要能保持2021年增长态势，未来3-5年内就能实现这个目标。我认为，随着新冠疫情的消失以及两国的努力，这个目标的实现可能还会比我们想象中要更快。以中国另两个东北亚邻国为例，2021年，中韩贸易总额超过3000亿美元；中日货物贸易总额达3700亿美元，随着RECP进一步深化，中日、中韩贸易还会继续增长。中国与俄罗斯在能源、科技、工业产品、农业等方面的经济互补量与市场潜力远大于中韩、中日两国。要挖掘中俄贸易额的潜力，关键是要推动中俄贸易投资便利化、自由化。

Eurasia EXPERT：俄罗斯和中国打算在EAEU和“一带一路”倡议框架内加强合作，深化合作。俄罗斯联邦和中国关于国际关系进入新时代和全球可持续发展的相应声明文本在克里姆林宫网站上发表。“各方希望加强欧亚经济联盟发展计划和一带一路倡议的工作，以加深各领域的EAEU与中国的务实合作，提高亚太和欧亚地区的互联互通水平。”声明说，EAEU与“一带一路”倡议的前景如何？加强EAEU “一带一路”倡议对接的目的是什么？

王文：目前，中国已与148个国家、32个国际组织签署200多份“一带一路”合作备忘录。“一带一路”已成为全球最大的公共产品。EAEU和“一带一路”加强合作，实现了两国的双赢，是“一带一路”全球合作中区域最大、影响最强的成果。中俄两国领导人努力让两个国家实现友好，永不战争与冲突，这将是人类文明与大国博弈历史的巨大进步。而要实现这个目标，首先要做的是让两国基建、贸易、交通、投资、人员、信息都能够进一步互联互通，让两个国家像一家人那样互相帮助、共同进步。这正是EAEU与“一带一路”合作的重要前景与目的。从这个角度看，EAEU与“一带一路”的合作还有很长的路要走，但我们有信心。

Eurasia EXPERT：在你看来，俄罗斯和中国恢复友好关系的原因是什么？

王文：中俄两国领导人持续不断努力，是两国友好关系不断进步的首要原因。过去9年，中俄两国领导人每年都有4-5次会晤，是真正的好朋友。中俄两国在外交政策、全球治理、安全战略上高度保持一致，是背靠背、肩并肩的战略合作伙伴。用中国网民的说法是，两国互信，把没有防备的身后完全交付给了对方，当自己挥刀对抗外来势力的时候，不会担心有敌人从后面袭来。我们希望这种互信的关系，能够永远存在下去。

Eurasia EXPERT：中俄两国领导人签署了关于国际关系进入新时代和全球可持续发展的联合声明。俄罗斯和中国领导人的联合声明证明了什么？

王文：关于新时代和全球可持续发展的联合声明，首先说明了中俄两国在民主、发展、安全与世界秩序、疫情等重大战略主题上的共同立场。这种共同立场对世界和平、文明进步意义重大，是对过去500年来国强必霸、大国兴衰规律的超越。中俄两国对国际上少数势力奉行单边主义、干涉他们内政、损害他国正当权益，制造矛盾分歧与对抗的行为进行强烈的批判。我相信，所有人都知道，两国批判的是哪个国家。声明中还有一句话唯一用了“强烈谴责”的句，是点名道姓地对美国、英国、澳大利亚建立的“三边安全伙伴”，即所谓的“AUKUS”。中国网民戏称其为“澳哭死”。中国知名媒体人胡锡进的一个比喻很有意思，两头狮子的合作比一头狮子笼络几只狗管用。

以下为英文实录

Eurasia EXPERT：Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote an article for the Chinese news agency Xinhua, in which he spoke about partnership and the future in relations between Russia and China. The article "Russia and China: a strategic partnership oriented towards the future" was published on the eve of the Russian leader's visit to Beijing. How would you evaluate the article of the President of Russia? How was this article received in China? What main theses could you single out from his article?

WANG Wen: President Putin's article on Xinhua news agency has caused great influence in China. At the same day, he also received a written interview from the head of CCTV. Xinhua news agency is the largest news agency in the world, with hundreds of millions of readers every day. CCTV is the TV station with the largest audience in the world. President Putin's choice of articles published by Xinhua news agency and an exclusive interview with CCTV show that he knows Chinese media very well and hopes that more Chinese people can read what he thinks. On February 4, the fourth day of the Chinese lunar new year, the beginning of the spring of the Chinese lunar calendar and the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, President Putin set off a "Russian Hot" in China in a variety of ways, such as writing, attending, making statements, signing contracts and so on. As President Putin mentioned in his article, "the Russia China comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination has entered a new era, reached an unprecedented level and become a model of efficiency, responsibility and future orientation". How the two major countries can trust, cooperate and be efficient is the blessing of the two peoples and the world.

Eurasia EXPERT：In his article, the President of Russia said that a mutually beneficial energy alliance is being formed between our countries. "Along with long-term deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons to China, we plan to implement a number of major joint projects," the article says. How has cooperation with Russia in the field of energy influenced and is affecting the energy security of China and the Asian region as a whole?

WANG Wen: The statement of "mutually beneficial energy alliance" has aroused great repercussions in China's energy industry. The economy and energy of China and Russia are highly complementary, and the energy cooperation between the two countries is mutually beneficial and win-win. At present, China is the largest importer of oil in the world. Russia's strategy of increasing oil exports to China is the correct decision made by President Putin. In 2003, only about 7% of China's crude oil imports came from Russia and Central Asia;In 2019, the proportion of China's crude oil imports from Russia rose to 15%. Over the past 16 years, China's crude oil imports have increased by about 10% annually, and its GDP has risen from about 3% in the world in 2003 and ranking the seventh in the world to about 15% in 2019 and ranking the second in the world successfully. This shows that Russia has shared the achievements of China's economic development and also made important contributions to China's economic development. However, in 2021, with China's low-carbon development strategy, China's crude oil imports fell for the first time in 20 years. Russia's continued expansion of crude oil exports to China means that China will reduce the proportion of other importing countries (such as some countries in Africa and Latin America). From this perspective, China and Russia should increase cooperation faster, The promotion of economic integration in the Eurasian region will continue to deepen.

Eurasia EXPERT：Vladimir Putin held talks with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping in Beijing. It was noted that the trade turnover between China and Russia exceeded $140 billion last year, thus reaching a new historical record. At the same time, the countries intend to increase it to $200-250 billion. The President of China announced his intention to raise the volume of trade between the countries to $250 billion. How realistic do you think is the task of raising trade between our countries to $200-250 billion? How, in your opinion, can such indicators be achieved in bilateral trade and economic cooperation?

WANG Wen: In 2021, the trade volume between China and Russia exceeded 140 billion US dollars, an increase of 26%. The leaders of the two countries set the goal of reaching US $200-250 billion in China Russian trade, which is to increase by 42% - 78% on the basis of 2021. As long as the growth trend in 2021 can be maintained, this goal can be achieved in the next 3-5 years. I believe that with the disappearance of COVID-19 and the efforts of the two countries, this goal will probably be faster than we can imagine. Take China's other two neighbors in Northeast Asia as an example. In 2021, the total trade volume between China and South Korea exceeded US $300 billion; The total trade volume of goods between China and Japan has reached 370 billion US dollars. With the further deepening of RECP, the trade between China, Japan and South Korea will continue to grow. The economic complementarity and market potential of China and Russia in energy, science and technology, industrial products and agriculture are much greater than those of China, South Korea and China and Japan. To tap the potential of Sino Russian trade volume, the key is to promote the facilitation and liberalization of China-Russian trade and investment.

Eurasia EXPERT：Russia and China intend to step up work within the framework of the EAEU and the One Belt, One Road initiative to deepen cooperation. The text of the corresponding statement by the Russian Federation and China on international relations entering a new era and global sustainable development is published on the Kremlin website.

"The parties intend to intensify work on linking the development plans of the Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road initiative in order to deepen practical cooperation between the EAEU and China in various fields, increase the level of interconnectedness between the Asia-Pacific and Eurasian regions," the statement said. .What are the prospects for linking the EAEU and the One Belt, One Road initiative? What is the purpose of intensifying work on linking the EAEU with the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road"?

WANG Wen：China has signed One Belt, One Road initiative(BRI) cooperation MOU with 148 countries and 32 international organizations. BRI has become the largest public product in the world. EAEU and BRI has achieved win-win results. It is the largest and most influential region in the BRI global cooperation maproad. The leaders of China and Russia strive to make the two countries realize friendship and never war and conflict, which will be a great progress in the history of human civilization and the game between great powers. To achieve this goal, we must first make the infrastructure, trade, transportation, investment, personnel and information of the two countries more interconnected, so that the two countries can help each other and make common progress like a family. This is BRI and EAEU cooperation important prospect and purpose. From this perspective, BRI and EAEU cooperation is still a long way to go, but we are confident.

Eurasia EXPERT：In your opinion, what are the reasons for the rapprochement between Russia and China?

WANG Wen: The continuous efforts of the leaders of China and Russia are the primary reason for the continuous progress of friendly relations between the two countries. In the past nine years, the leaders of China and Russia have met 4-5 times a year and are really good friends. China and Russia are highly consistent in foreign policy, global governance and security strategy. They are back-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder strategic partners. According to Chinese netizens, the two countries trust each other and completely hand over the unprotected behind to each other. When they wield a gun against foreign enemies, they won't worry about the enemies attacking from behind. We hope that this relationship of mutual trust will last forever.

 Eurasia EXPERT：Russian and Chinese Presidents signed a joint statement on international relations entering a new era and global sustainable development. What does the joint statement of the leaders of Russia and China testify to?

WANG Wen: The joint statement on the new era and global sustainable development first explained the common values of China and Russia on major strategic themes such as democracy, development, security, world order and epidemic. This common values is of great significance to world peace, civilization and progress. It is a transcendence of the law of the rise and fall of a great power over the past 500 years. China and Russia have strongly criticized the actions of a small number of international forces that pursue unilateralism, interfere in their internal affairs, damage the legitimate rights and interests of other countries, and create contradictions, differences and confrontation. I believe everyone knows which country the two countries criticize. The only sentence in the statement that used "strong condemnation" was the "trilateral security partner" established by name and surname against the United States, Britain and Australia, the so-called "aukus". Chinese netizens jokingly called it "Australia cries to death". As Hu Xijin, a well-known Chinese media person, has a very interesting metaphor. The cooperation between two lions is more effective than one lion attracting several dogs.

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RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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