对美演讲：美国不应存在能支配中国的幻想​

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编者按：2022年4月15-17日，美国常青藤盟校之一的布朗大学中国峰会在线举行，主题为“大展望：引领新秩序”。全球30多名知名企业、学术、文艺、媒体界人士受邀演讲。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心（教育部）执行主任王文受邀做了45分钟的英文主旨演讲与互动问答。相关内容还刊发于2022年4月19日《环球时报》英文版，引起广泛关注。现将摘要、现场部分视频、报纸版面截图、演讲中英文内容分享如下：

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布朗中国峰会演讲视频集锦（一）：中国GDP超过美国是不可逆的趋势

摘要

➢现在的中国已稳居世界第二大经济体，但如果与美国比，中国发展总体看还有许多不足。

➢常识告诉我们，只要勤奋的中国人想吃得更好、住得更好、穿得更好，并确保这些个人梦想逐渐实现，中国在2035年就会再出现2亿中产阶级。全球第二大经济体的体量，不可能是中国发展的上限。

➢目前看来，若台湾宣布独立，中国大陆将动用武力，并不惜打败任何协防台湾的外部力量的敌人，是当下最大的战争风险点。这考验着中国人的智慧，同样考验着全世界尤其是美国人防范风险的智慧与理性。

➢美国应该放弃幻想，以为中国会打不还手，骂不还口。

➢尽管上届美国政府特朗普、蓬佩奥，或这届政府布林肯、佩洛西等，不断用最恶毒的语言挑衅中国，中国方面除了外交部进行了必要的反制与批判，中国最高决策层从没有对美国恶语相迎，以避免更严重地刺激美国，防止中美陷入新冷战的陷阱。

➢在气候变化、反洗钱、反网络犯罪等问题上，中国与美国保持着高度一致的策略。过度夸大中美两国的战略分歧，不符合事实。

➢如果两国必须竞争的话，我希望不是拳击赛，而是打高尔夫。谁赢，都意味着世界更高的文明与发展。从这个角度看，真正考验两国竞争文明的时刻刚刚开始。

非常感谢布朗大学中国峰会邀请。我是王文，来自中国人民大学重阳金融研究院。

如果几年前，有人说中国崛起已终结，中国正在衰退。可能没人信，但最近半年，这种论调重新兴起。美国学者迈克尔•伯克利（Michael Beckley）和霍•布兰德斯（Hal Brands）两位教授去年底连续在《外交》《外交政策》发表了这个主题的长文。更糟糕的是，近几周来，新冠疫情在中国造成的上海等许多城市封城，俄乌冲突后中美竞争变得激烈。一些人对中国未来很悲观。所以，我想，有必要讲一讲中国崛起与中美竞争。

我希望用三个部分来阐述：第一，为什么中国持续崛起有强大的基础？第二，怎么理解当下中美紧张？第三，中美未来应该竞争什么？

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布朗中国峰会演讲视频集锦（二）：中国对美国保持着后发制人的能力

中国崛起的基础

预测中国其实并不难。许多懂得投资中国的战略家们，通常会在五年规划、党代会报告、政府工作报告里寻觅中国下一步的演变轨迹。即使那些怀疑共产党文件的人，恐怕也不能回避以下三个支撑中国持续崛起的基本常识。

第一个的基本常识是，所有中国人都想谋求更好的生活。这是推动中国持续崛起的原动力。相比毛泽东年代，当下的中国人已不愿意为革命理想而忍受贫穷。追求更好的物质待遇与精神享受，成为1978年邓小平时代以来最大的中国国家梦想，也是最广泛的国民共识。习近平2012年上任第一天就宣称，人民对美好生活的向往就是中国共产党的奋斗目标。

比起1978年时中国仍是全世界最贫穷的国家之一，现在的中国已稳居世界第二大经济体，但如果与美国比，中国发展总体看还有许多不足。。中国城镇人均住房面积仅39平方米，虽是1978年8平方米的5倍，但仍不足美国人（约65平米）的2/3。中国人均拥有小汽车仅有0.21辆，仅为美国人的1/5。中国城镇化率仅仅57%，比起美国82%城镇化率相差甚远。中国人均年社会消费品金额约4600美元，仅是美国人的1/4。

有些数据更令人惊讶。截至2021年，中国约600个机场，美国却拥有13500多个。在中国，仍有10亿中国人没有坐过飞机。2亿中国人家庭里还没有马桶，只能用蹲式的厕所。中国人获得大学教育的比例仅有4%，而美国却有25%左右。

21世纪前20年，中国新产生了2亿中产阶级。世界透过深圳、上海浦东的高楼大厦看到中国繁荣，但不要忘记深圳与浦东20年前还是贫困之地，而现在中国许多地方正如20年前的深圳、浦东那样。

常识告诉我们，只要勤奋的中国人想吃得更好、住得更好、穿得更好，并确保这些个人梦想逐渐实现，中国在2035年就会再出现2亿中产阶级。全球第二大经济体的体量，不可能是中国发展的上限。

有人会质疑中国是否能够推出持续确保增长的政策。这正是第二个美国人很难理解的基本常识：中国政策的延续性。

邓小平时期确立的改革开放政策，在江泽民、胡锦涛两任领导人期间延续得很好，习近平同样在坚持，不同的只是随着时代背景的变化出现了一些基于现实挑战的调整。

比如，一胎计划生育政策坚持了30多年，随着老龄化的出现，习近平时期将其改为二胎、三胎政策。解决8亿人的绝对贫困难题基础上，中国再推进乡村振兴计划。在确立科技是第一生产力的政策之后，面临着美国的技术封堵，中国推行科技自主的强国政策。在出现房地产泡沫后，中国推行“房住不炒”政策及试点房产税，确保过去五年中国房价基本不涨。在保证了金融稳定的同时，逐渐推进金融开放，进而使中国在2020年第一次成为全球最大的外资流入国。

这些根据实际情况推进的改革与循序渐进的开放，正是邓小平时代就确立的国策。中国领导人不断自我警醒。平均每隔两个月，作为最高决策层的中共中央政治局（共25人）就会集体学习。2021年集体学习包括数字经济、区块链、生物安全等8个主题。每次集体学习，习近平都会强调满足人民需求的重要性。所有中国人都知道，奔向2035年、2050年的中国路径就是为了满足民众需要。当然，这条路很曲折、泥泞、凹凸不平，但方向是确定的。

外部力量是否能阻止中国人追求美好生活，中断中国政策的延续性？类似俄乌战争那样，中国会发动一场外部战争吗？战争会阻止中国崛起吗？

没有任何外部力量敢入侵中国，这是第三个基本常识。

1979年霍梅尼革命后的伊朗崛起，被两伊战争中断。1979年入侵阿富汗，是苏联衰弱的开始。2002年阿富汗战争，是美国霸权坠落的节点。中国是过去40年唯一没有卷入或发动战争的主要经济体，正如同20世纪上半叶美国远离一战、二战那样获得了增长的和平红利。中国大力发展航母、核潜艇、洲际导弹，却又不像美国那样在海外设立数百个军事基地，精准地保持不对外发动战争与防止外敌入侵之间的平衡点。

目前看来，若台湾宣布独立，中国大陆将动用武力，并不惜与任何协防台湾的外部力量为敌，是当下最大的战争风险点。这考验着中国人的智慧，同样考验着全世界尤其是美国人防范风险的智慧与理性。

基于这些基本常识，中国崛起终结的概率是相当低的。预设中国衰弱，为时过早。

中国发展没有被美国牵着鼻子走

21世纪第三个十年的中国，比过去任何时候都具有对发展节奏的掌控力。中国不像日本，不可能听从美国的指挥；中国也不是伊朗，推进完全反美的战略。中国保持对美国的博弈能力，能捍卫本国的核心利益，也不被美国牵着鼻子走。

演讲内容部分刊于4月19日《环球时报》英文版

一个重要的例证是，尽管上届美国政府特朗普、蓬佩奥，或这届政府布林肯、佩洛西等，不断用最恶毒的语言挑衅中国，中国方面除了外交部进行了必要的反制与批判，中国最高决策层从没有对美国恶语相迎，以避免更严重地刺激美国，防止中美陷入新冷战的陷阱。

当然，美国不要存在侥幸心理，如果1999年轰炸中国驻南斯拉夫大使馆，2001年在南海上空中美军机相撞的事件再发生，势必会遭到中国强有力的反击，那将是中美关系的灾难，也是人类的悲剧。

在这个方面，去年华盛顿邮报曾曝光，美国参谋长联席会主席米利曾与中国军方通话保证“不会对中国发动袭击”。如果这是真的，那么这种军事理性与冷静应该是值得赞赏的。

美国应该放弃幻想，以为中国会打不还手，骂不还口。事实上，从特朗普以来的美国对华政策，中国保持着后发制人的反制裁能力。美国加征中国商品25%关税，中国也会加征美国商品25%。美国关闭中国驻休斯敦总领馆，中国也会对等关闭美国驻成都总领馆；美国制裁中国官员，中国也会反制裁美国官员。

中国是与美国实力同一量级的对手。这一点我赞同基辛格博士的最新说法，这个世界没有任何国家拥有支配整个世界的潜力。美国不应存在能支配中国的、不切实际的幻想。

中国的全球战略目标仍是保持着国际秩序的稳定。按哈佛大学江忆恩教授的算法，中国是一个维持现状的国家，加入了二战以后大多数国际条约与国际组织。有些国际条约中国已加入，但美国却没有，比如《国际海洋法公约》。有些则是中国近年刚加入，美国却退出，比如《武器贸易条约》。中国是巴黎协定最大的支持国家。

在气候变化、反洗钱、反网络犯罪等问题上，中国与美国保持着高度一致的策略。2008年国际金融危机时，时任美国国务卿希拉里来中国，希望“同舟共济”，请求中国增持美国国债，中国做了。

2013年以来，中国推“一带一路”，多次邀请美国加入，现在也在主张与美国“B3W”方案合作。美国在华总资产已超过2.2万亿美元。美国企业在中国的投资的年均利润率保持在15%以上。掌握6000亿美元以上的联邦退休储备委员会（FRTIB）多次表示，要加大中国资本市场的投资。由此看，过度夸大中美两国的战略分歧，不符合事实。

还有一个常常被忽视的事实，在任何法律文件与官方报告中，中国政府都没有宣称以超过他国为战略目标。2014年，IMF、世界银行都曾发布研究报告，以购买力平价算，中国经济总量已超过美国，但中国政府没有接受过这个说法。

相反，中国一直强调自己永远是发展中国家，不接受G2，不加入富国俱乐部。世界历史上没有一个国家像中国这样进行“自我约束”的崛起，宣布永远不当霸权，不首先使用核武器，不会侵略他国，还把这些宣示写入了宪法。试问，过去五百年的人类全球化历史，还有哪个国家的崛起进程比中国更文明？

中美应当为何竞争

人类文明进入到21世纪。中美两国到底需要怎样的竞争，才能真正体现出大国竞争的文明性、进步性？

在我看来，中美首先应为解决全球发展困境的竞争。美国曾为二战以后的世界做出贡献。但正如21世纪以来的美国并没有带动全世界的国民健康、创建新企业、就业机会持续提升。

相比之下，2008年、2022年北京两届奥运圆满举办，令中国国家声望呈加速度崛起之势。高铁建设、电子商务、无现金支付、消除贫困、打击腐败、污染防治等极大推动了中国发展模式在发展中国家的吸引力。

在许多国家看来，过去半个世纪的民主化转型，彻底改变命运的国家仍是少数，多数穷国仍是穷国的客观现实，而中国却从穷转富的逆袭之路，使得中国显现足以与美国模式吸引力相匹配的竞争力。

中美两国为解决全球发展困境的竞争，本质在于哪个国家更能为世界发展提供有效的解决方案，更在于哪个国家能治理好本国生活便利、民众福祉、社会稳定与经济复苏。

第二、中美应为应对全球气候变化的竞争。气候变化已经到了紧急的危机时刻。越来越多的气候科学家认为，如果任由地球气候继续升高而不采取实质且有效的措施，不排除21世纪是最后一个人类文明的完整世纪。气候危机还会伴随着金融危机、能源危机甚至数倍于新冠疫情危机的社会危机。

2020年底，已有约130个国家宣示未来20-40年实现碳中和，包括美国2050年实现碳中和，中国2060年实现碳中和。然而，全世界明显低估了两国合作应对气候变化的顺畅度。

中美两国占全球二氧化碳排放量的45%左右，能为世界提供约60%以上的资金，一旦两国在地缘政治、经贸摩擦、区域安全等领域继续保持紧张的状态，势必会导致两国共同应对气候变化的合力受到重创。这充分考验拜登试图将合作、竞争、对抗分类管理的对华政策，也考验两国为人类未来而合作的大局意识。

还有，中美应为推动全球技术革新的竞争。智能科技犹如打开了“潘多拉魔盒”，人类在人工智能技术面前是变得更强，还是变得更弱？是走向新的繁荣，还是走向灭亡？这些都将是一个终极的思考。

这是一场“无尽前沿”的竞争，正如美国科学家范内瓦·布什博士所说。这场关于“无尽前沿”的竞争已在中美两国拉开。不过，对于像我这样的中国社会科学学者而言，中美两国对“无尽前沿的竞争”的范畴恐怕要比范内瓦时代更宽泛、更复杂。这场竞争美国不一定输，中国也没有注定赢。更确切地讲，只要一国输，另一方也不会赢，正如这场新冠疫情一样，只要病毒还没有得到控制，就不能说谁赢得了这场抗击疫情的战争。

如果两国必须竞争的话，我希望不是拳击赛，而是打高尔夫。谁赢，都意味着世界更高的文明与发展。从这个角度看，真正考验两国竞争文明的时刻刚刚开始。

图片来源：Global times

以下为英文版

Bleak predictions of China stem from poor understanding

By Wang Wen

If a few years ago, someone said that China's rise had ended and China was declining, no one would have believed it. But this argument has resurfaced in the last half of the year. American scholars Michael Berkley and Hal Brands published long articles on this topic in Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy last year. 

Worse still, in recent weeks, many Chinese cities including Shanghai have been closed down due to COVID-19, and China-US competition has become fierce after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Some people are pessimistic about China's future. Therefore, I think it is necessary to talk about the rise of China and the competition between China and the US.

I want to elaborate in three parts: First, why is there a strong foundation for China's continued rise? Second, how to understand current China-US tension? Third, what should China and the US compete for in the future?

The basics of China's sustained rise

The inertia of China's development over the past four decades of reform and opening-up has made it less difficult to predict the country's future development trends. Many strategists who know how to invest in China usually look for development tracks in the Five-Year Plans, Party Congress Reports and government work reports. Even those who doubt the Communist Party of China's documents cannot avoid the following three basic facts that underpin China's continued rise.

The first basic fact is this: All Chinese people seek a better life. This is the driving force behind China's sustained rise. Compared with Chairman Mao Zedong's time, Chinese people are no longer willing to endure poverty for revolutionary ideals. Pursuing better material benefits and spiritual enjoyment has become the biggest national dream of China since Deng Xiaoping's era in 1978. It also presently carries the broadest national consensus. 

"The people's desire for a better life will always be our goal," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in 2012 after he was elected General Secretary of CPC Central Committee.

China is now the world's second-largest economy, compared with 1978 when it was one of the poorest countries in the world. This growth is tangible everywhere across the country. 

However, compared with the US, China's development is still relatively backward on the whole. For example, China's urban housing per capita is 39 square meters, which is five times that of the eight square meters in 1978. This is still less than two-thirds that of Americans (about 65 square meters). Also, the average Chinese owns just 0.2 cars per person, a fifth as many as Americans. China's urbanization rate is 57 percent, compared with 82 percent in the US. The average annual consumption of consumer goods in China is about $4,600, only a quarter of that in the US.

Other statistics are more illuminating. As of 2021, China had about 600 airports, while the US had more than 13,500. In China, there are still 1 billion citizens who have never flown in an airplane. And 200 million Chinese families still don't have flush toilets in their homes, using basic squat toilets instead. Only 4 percent of Chinese people have a university education, compared with about 25 percent in the US.

However, in the first 20 years of the 21st century, China has created 200 million new middle-class citizens. The world today witnesses with wide-eyes China's prosperity through the skyscrapers in Shenzhen and Shanghai, particularly in Pudong district. But it should not be forgotten that Shenzhen and Pudong were poor places 20 years ago. In fact, many parts of China today are just like what Shenzhen and Pudong were like 20 years ago. They will change too, soaring to the clouds.

Common sense tells us that as long as diligent Chinese people want to eat, live and dress better, this will ensure that their personal dreams are gradually realized. China will have another 200 million middle-class residents by 2035. The volume of the world's second-largest economy cannot be the upper limit of China's development.

Some will question whether China can maintain policies to sustain this growth. This is the second basic fact that Americans struggle to grasp: the continuity of Chinese policies. 

The policy of reform and opening-up established during Deng's period continued well under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and thrives today under Xi Jinping. The difference is that some adjustments have been made based on realistic challenges as times changed dramatically. 

For example, the one-child policy lasted for more than 30 years. With the emergence of an aging population, the policy was changed to a second-child and later to third-child policy. 

On the basis of lifting 800 million people out of absolute poverty, China is pushing rural revitalization plans. 

After establishing policies that put science and technology as the primary productive forces, China is carrying out policies for independent power in science and technology. This is successfully being implemented despite facing the technological blockades from the US. 

In the wake of the real estate bubble, China has implemented the policy of "no speculation in housing." It has also instituted a property tax to ensure that prices remain stable over a period of five years. 

Moreover, China became the world's largest recipient of foreign capital for the first time in 2020. It did so by gradually advancing financial opening-up measures while ensuring financial stability.

These reforms and gradual opening-up measures were skillfully set in motion in accordance with the actual conditions of state policies established during the Deng's era. Chinese leaders are constantly alert and self-aware. 

On average, every two months, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee (25 people in total), as the highest-level decision-making body, will collectively study the situational landscape. In 2021, collective learning included eight themes, covering the digital economy, blockchain and biosafety. During each study session, Xi stressed the importance of satisfying the needs of the people. All Chinese people know that the Chinese road toward 2035 and 2050 must satisfy the needs of the people. Sure, the road is twisty, muddy and bumpy. But the direction is certain.

Can external forces stop the pursuit of a better life and interrupt the continuity of Chinese policies? Like the Russia-Ukraine war, will China launch an external war? Will war prevent China from rising?

No outside force dares to invade China. This is the third element of basic common sense.

To put this into historical perspective, Iran's rise after the 1979 Khomeini revolution was interrupted by the Iran-Iraq war. The invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was the beginning of the former Soviet Union's eventual decline. The Afghan war in 2002 was the point at which American hegemony fell. 

In the last 40 years, China was the only major economy not involved in a war. Instead, China reaped the growing peace dividend, just as the US did in the first half of the 20th century. 

China has meanwhile developed and invested aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines and intercontinental missiles. However, unlike the US, which has hundreds of military bases overseas, China has kept a balance between not waging war and preventing foreign invasion.

At present, if Taiwan authorities declare independence, the mainland will deploy a military force. Beijing will not hesitate to be an enemy of any external forces that may help defend the island, which is presently the biggest risk for sparking armed conflict in the region. 

This tests the wisdom of the Chinese people. It also informs the wisdom and rationality of the whole world, especially Americans, to mitigate and prevent risks. Based on three basic facts, the probability of the end of China's rise is quite low. It is too early for anyone to predict China's decline.

China's development not to be dominated  by the US

In the third decade of the 21st century, China has more control over the pace of its development than ever before. Unlike Japan, China cannot be lectured and manipulated by the US. China is not Iran, or Russia, pursuing a completely anti-US strategy. China maintains its power against the US, and can defend its core interests without being led by Washington's heavy handed will.

An important example is that despite the fact that the last US government - Trump, Pompeo, or the Biden government's Blinken and Pelosi, constantly provoke China in the most vicious language.

Except for the necessary counter-measures and criticisms made by the China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the top decision-making level of China never countered with harsh words. China diplomatically avoided provoking the US more seriously. This has prevented China and the US from falling into a new "Cold War" trap.

Of course, the US should not take any chances. If cases similar to the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 or the collision between Chinese and US military aircraft over the South China Sea in 2001 were to happen again, China could surely have a strong counterattack. That would be a disaster for China-US relations, and a tragedy for humanity. 

In this regard, the Washington Post last year reported that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Ed Milley had a phone call with the Chinese military and promised not to launch an attack on China. If this is true, such military rationality and calmness should be appreciated.

The US should give up any illusions that China will not fight back. In fact, since Trump's policy toward China, the world has seen that Beijing has maintained its ability to strike back with anti-sanction moves. 

For example, the US imposed 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, while China retaliated with 25 percent tariffs on US goods. 

The US closed the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, and China reciprocated by shutting down the US Consulate General in Chengdu. 

Washington sanctioned Chinese officials, and Beijing retaliated against US officials.

China is an opponent of the same magnitude as the US. I agree with Dr. Kissinger's latest statement that no country has the potential to dominate the world. There should be no illusions that the US can dominate China.

China's global strategic goal is still to maintain the stability of the international order. According to Professor Alastair Iain Johnston of Harvard University, China is a country that likes to maintain the status quo. It has joined most international treaties and organizations since World War II. China has acceded to some international treaties, but the US has not, such as the International Convention on the Law of the Sea. For some, such as the Arms Trade Treaty, China recently joined, and the US withdrew. Also, China is the biggest supporter of the Paris Agreement in climate change. 

Overall, China and the US maintain a highly consistent strategy on climate change, anti-money laundering and anti-cybercrime. During the financial crisis in 2008, then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton came to China, hoping to "help each other." Secretary Clinton asked China to increase its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and China did. 

Since 2013, China has promoted the Belt and Road Initiative, even inviting the US to join it many times. Now, it is also advocating cooperation with the "B3W" program of the US. Total US assets in China have exceeded $2.2 trillion. The average annual profit margin of American companies' investment in China remains above 15 percent. In fact, the Federal Retirement Reserve Board, which controls more than $600 billion, has repeatedly vowed to increase investment in China's capital markets. From this point of view, it is not in line with the facts if we exaggerate the strategic differences between China and the US.

There is also an often-overlooked fact; In no legal documents or official reports does the Chinese government claim to surpass other countries as its strategic goal. In 2014, both the IMF and the World Bank released a study stating that China's economic size had surpassed that of the US in PPP terms. However, the Chinese government did not accept this statement. 

On the contrary, China has stressed that it will always be a developing country. It will not accept G2 membership, or join the rich countries club. No other country in the history of the world has ever been as self-disciplined as China has with its rise. China declares that it will never seek hegemony, that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, and that it will never invade other countries. 

It has consciously written these declarations into its Constitution. Indeed, over the course of the past 500 years of globalization, is there any country whose rise has been more civilized than China's?

The competition between China and the US

Human civilization is approaching the close of the first quarter of the 21st century with eyes toward 2050. What kind of competition do China and the US need to truly fathom if they are to advance global civilization in their great power competition?

In my opinion, China and the US should first compete to solve the dilemma of global development. The US was once making significant contributions to the world after World War II. But the US, in the 21st century, has failed to promote national health, the creation of new enterprises, and the continuous improvement of employment opportunities in the world. 

By contrast, the successful hosting of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games accelerated the rise of China's national reputation. Also, high-speed rail construction, e-commerce, e-payments, poverty eradication, anti-corruption and pollution prevention have greatly boosted the attractiveness of China's development model to developing countries.

In the eyes of many countries, the democratic transformation of the past half-century has only completely changed the fate of a small number of countries. Yet the majority of countries are still poor. However, China's counter-attack road from poverty to wealth makes it appear competitive enough to the US model.

The essence of the competition between China and the US to solve the global development dilemma lies in this question: Which country can offer more effective solutions to world development? More importantly, which country can best manage the convenience of life, the well-being of its people, social stability and economic recovery? 

Second, China and the US should compete to deal with global climate change. Climate change has reached a critical moment. More and more climate scientists believe that if the Earth's temperature continues to rise without taking substantive and effective measures, the 21st century could be the last complete century of human civilization. The climate crisis will also be accompanied by other sharp crises: energy, financial and social. These will be of much greater magnitude than the suffering caused from the COVID-19 pandemic.

By the end of 2020, more than 130 countries had pledged to be carbon neutral over the next 20-40 years. This included the US by 2050 and China by 2060.Yet the world has obviously underestimated the smoothness of the cooperation between the two countries in addressing climate change. 

China and the US account for about 45 percent of global carbon emissions, and can provide more than 60 percent of the world's financial resources. If the two countries continue to maintain tensions over geopolitics, economics and trade, regional security, and other fields, their joint efforts to deal with climate change will be severely damaged. This will test Joe Biden's China policy.

Moreover, China and the US should compete to promote global technological innovation. Developing intelligent technology is like opening a "Pandora's box." Will human beings become stronger or weaker in the face of AI technology? Toward new prosperity, or extinction? These will be the ultimate tests of humanity's thinking.

This is a competition related to "Endless Frontier" named by Dr. Vannevar Bush in 1946. The race for the "endless frontier" is already underway in China and the US.

However, for Chinese social science scholars like me, the scope of the "competition for endless frontiers" between China and the US is probably broader and more complex than before. 

The US is not necessarily losing this competition. Nor is China destined to win it. More precisely, as long as one country loses, the other cannot win. Just as with COVID-19, as long as the virus is not under control, it is impossible to say who is winning the war against the pandemic. 

If the two countries have to compete, I hope it's not a boxing match. I hope it's more like playing golf. Whoever wins, will need to support global civilization, and development of the world. From this point of view, the real test of the two countries' competitive civilization has just begun. 

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// 人大重阳    

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RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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