与俄经济大佬谈二十大：俄应重新发现中国

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近日，受《经济学人之家》节目的邀请，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文与节目主持人、俄罗斯自由经济学会主席谢尔盖·博德鲁诺夫直播对话。《经济学人之家》是由俄罗斯自由经济学会推出的思辨类节目，常邀请俄罗斯以及国外知名专家探讨经济问题。此前，人大重阳一行深度调研俄罗斯期间（点击下划线部分查看相关内容）曾实地到访俄罗斯自由经济学会总部，双方签署战略合作协议，成为自新冠疫情暴发以来，中俄两国智库界签署的首个深度战略合作协议。人大重阳推荐中英文对话实录如下：

中国共产党将带领中国实现未来30年的崛起，是一个巨大人口、均衡发展、绿色环保、和平合作的崛起过程。

视频时长约14分30秒 陈伟 翻译/剪辑

俄罗斯自由经济学会：10月底召开了中国共产党第二十次代表大会。二十大确定了该国社会经济发展的优先事项。王文教授，请您对二十大的经济成果发表看法。你如何从二十大报告中看待中国的发展前景？

王文：中国共产党20大在中国发展中上具有重要的意义。最重要的一点是，提出在未来30年，到2049年，中国共产党的中心任务。那就是要全面建成社会主义现代化强国，而且是以中国式现代化来推进中华民族伟大复兴的方式，来实现这个目标。

那么，什么是中国式现代化呢？有5个特征。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化，是全体人民共同富裕的现代化，是物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代化，是人与自然和谐共生的现代化，是走和平发展道路的现代化。

这就确立了中国发展的前景，那就是要让14亿人共同实现现代化，变得越来越富有。这不仅仅物质层面的富有，而且还在精神层面的富有。更重要的是，要让实现低碳绿色的发展，不再重复世界上那些战争崛起的道路。

换句话说，中国共产党将带领中国实现未来30年的崛起，是一个巨大人口、均衡发展、绿色环保、和平合作的崛起过程。

俄罗斯自由经济学会：中国在创新发展领域处于世界领先地位，这是中国经济快速增长的关键。然而，创新过程始终具有循环性。中国目前处于创新周期的哪个阶段？也就是说，第五种技术模式的份额是多少，需要多少“高科技”——第六种技术模式？

王文：创新周期论，是著名经济学家熊彼特1939年发明的，是根据生产要素和生产条件的综合分析，总结出来技术创新的规律。从中国的角度看，投资、政策、人口、企业、市场等诸多条件看，创新周期都处于上升阶段。中国采取科技创新的发展战略，鼓励越来越多的资金投入到创新中。在中国，未来30年，还会产生3亿中产阶级，支撑着创新产品的巨大消费市场。更重要的是，世界市场正在向中国创新产品开放。

比如，以芯片、半导体为例，2020年中国需要支付3800亿美元来进口芯片、半导体，高于能源进口。如果中国采取本土替代，将会节约大量的成本，进而形成巨大的创新刺激。在过去30年，从日用家电到航天科技，再到大飞机、5G产品，中国下一轮的本土创新产品就是芯片、半导体。另一方面，中国5G产品、新能源产品也在迅速在全球市场拓展。从这些角度看，中国创新发展仍然有很大的提升空间。

俄罗斯自由经济学会：习近平主席在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会上发表讲话称，全面消除贫困是中国过去10年取得的最重要成就之一。进一步提高人民生活水平的任务将如何按照这次大会的决定来解决？您如何看待通过提高中国人口的收入水平来促进国家经济增长的潜力？

王文：过去10年，中国有1亿人脱贫，提前10年完成了联合国SDG2030目标，占有世界脱贫人口的70%以上。但与此同时，在二十大报告中，我们承认，城乡区域发展和收入分配差距仍然较大；群众在就业、教育、医疗、托育、养老、住房等方面面临不少难题。中国人均GDP是1.3万美元，仍不到美国的1/5。从这个角度看，中国发展的任务仍然很重。

因此，到2035年，中国发展的总体目标之一是：经济实力、科技实力、综合国力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值迈上新的大台阶，达到中等发达国家水平。人民生活更加幸福美好，居民人均可支配收入再上新台阶，中等收入群体比重明显提高，等等。

从收入水平上看，只要在现有基础上再提升40%，中国经济总量就能与美国持平。如果能够年均保持4.7%增长，在2035年，中国GDP就能再翻一番，达到36万亿美元，是当前美国1.5倍。这个目标是完全能够实现的。

俄罗斯自由经济学会：如果我们谈论俄中关系，是什么限制了我们两国经济合作的机会？哪些解决方案可以促进其发展？

王文：正如你所知道的，今年秋天我在俄罗斯呆了2个月，访问了21个城市，所有俄罗斯朋友对我都很友善，但是他们对中国的了解却是有限的。中俄经济合作近些年来快速发展，2021年中俄贸易达到1450亿美元，实现了历史新高，2022年更将接近2000亿美元。这是相当惊艳的进步。

但在我看来，3000亿美元甚至更高，也是有可能的。这里至少需要有三个条件：第一，刺激贸易。2023年中国将是全球最大的消费市场，每年向世界进口2.5万亿美元，但只有3%源于俄罗斯。即使石油和天然气，俄罗斯都不是中国最大的进口对象国。

第二，投资开放。中国已成为世界最大对外投资国，每年对外投资超过1500亿美元，但流向俄罗斯的只有1%。俄罗斯开放市场，提升营商环境，就可以吸引中国更多的投资。

最后就是提升人员往来。后疫情时代，中俄之间都应该加强更多的了解，在艺术、电影、文化、科技、学术等方方面面都应加强合作，进而打造大国关系的永久典范。

以下为英文版

VEO of Russia: At the end of October the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China was held. Congress set the priorities for the socio-economic development of the country.

Dear Pr. Wang Wen, please comment on the economic results of the Congress. How do you see thedevelopment prospects of China in the light of the decisions made at the Congress?

Wang Wen: The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is of great significance to China's development. The most important point is to propose the central task of the Communist Party of China in the next 30 years, until 2049. That is to comprehensively build a powerful modern socialist country, and to achieve this goal by promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-style modernization.

So, what is Chinese-style modernization? There are 5 features. Chinese-style modernization is the modernization of a huge population, the modernization of common prosperity for all people, the modernization of harmonious material civilization and spiritual civilization, the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and the modernization of peaceful development.

This establishes the prospect of China's development, which is to enable 1.4 billion people to realize modernization together and become richer and richer. This is not only rich on the material level, but also rich on the spiritual level. More importantly, it is necessary to achieve low-carbon and green development without repeating the path of so-called 'rising by wars' in the world.

In other words, the Communist Party of China will lead China to achieve its rise in the next 30 years, which is a process of rising with a huge population, balanced development, green environmental protection, and peaceful cooperation.

VEO of Russia:China is one of the world leaders in the field of innovative development, and this is the key to the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. However, the innovation process always has a cyclic nature. At what stage of the innovation cycle is China at the moment? In other words, what is the share of the fifth technological mode, and how much does it take "high technologies" – i.e. the sixth technological mode?

Wang Wen: The innovation cycle theory was invented by the famous economist Schumpeter in 1939. It summarizes the law of technological innovation based on the comprehensive analysis of production factors and production conditions. 

From China's perspective, the innovation cycle is on the rise in terms of investment, policy, population, enterprises, market and many other conditions. China adopts a development strategy of technological innovation and encourages more and more funds to be invested in innovation. In China, in the next 30 years, there will be another 300 million middle class, supporting a huge consumer market for innovative products. More importantly, world markets are opening up to Chinese innovative products.

For example, taking chips and semiconductors as an example, China needs to pay 380 billion US dollars to import chips and semiconductors in 2020, which is higher than energy imports. If China adopts local substitution, it will save a lot of cost, which will form a huge innovation stimulus. 

In the past 30 years, from household appliances to aerospace technology, to large aircraft, and 5G products, China's next round of local innovative products will be chips and semiconductors. On the other hand, China's 5G products and new energy products are also rapidly expanding in the global market. From these perspectives, China's innovative development still has a lot of room for improvement.

VEO of Russia:President Xi Jinping, speaking at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China, called defeating total poverty – one of China's most important achievements in the past 10 years. How will the task of further increasing the country's standard of living will be solved in the light of the decisions made at the Congress? How do you see the potential for economic growth of the country by increasing the income level of the Chinese population?

Wang Wen: Over the past 10 years, 100 million people in China have been lifted out of poverty, fulfilling the UN SDG2030 target 10 years ahead of schedule, accounting for more than 70% of the world's people out of poverty. 

But at the same time, in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we acknowledged that there is still a large gap in urban-rural development and income distribution; China's per capita GDP is US$13,000, which is still less than one-fifth of that of the United States. From this perspective, China's development tasks are still heavy.

Therefore, by 2035, one of the overall goals of China's development is: economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and comprehensive national strength jump significantly, and the per capita GDP reach a new level and reach the level of a moderately developed country. People's lives are happier and better, residents' per capita disposable income has reached a new level, the proportion of middle-income groups has increased significantly, and so on.

From the perspective of income level, as long as the current basis is increased by 40%, China's economic aggregate can be equal to that of the United States. If it can maintain an average annual growth rate of 4.7%, in 2035, China's GDP will double to $36 trillion, which is 1.5 times that of the current United States. This goal is fully achievable.

VEO of Russia:If we're talking about Russian-Chinese relations, what's limiting the opportunities of the economic cooperation between our two countries? What solutions could contribute to its development?

Wang Wen: As you know, I stayed in Russia for 2 months this autumn and visited 21 cities. All Russian friends are very friendly to me, but their understanding of China is limited. China-Russian economic cooperation has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2021, China-Russian trade reached 145 billion U.S. dollars, a record high, and in 2022 it will be close to 200 billion U.S. dollars. This is pretty amazing progress.

But in my opinion, $300 billion or even higher is also possible. There are at least three conditions here: First, stimulate trade. In 2023, China will be the largest consumer market in the world, importing 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars to the world every year, but only 3% comes from Russia. Even oil and natural gas, Russia is not China's largest import destination.

Second, open investment. China has become the world's largest foreign investor, with an annual foreign investment of more than 150 billion U.S. dollars, but only 1% of it flows to Russia. If Russia opens its market and improves its business environment, it can attract more investment from China.

The last is to enhance personnel exchanges. In the post-pandemic era, both China and Russia should strengthen their understanding, and strengthen cooperation in art, film, culture, science and technology, and academics, so as to create a permanent model of major-country relations.

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// 人大重阳    

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RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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