原普京经济顾问：中国给我们树立了一个很好的榜样
编者按：2024年8月5日，四国合作智库研究报告发布暨国际研讨会上发布了《攻坚：新时代中国全面深化改革和高水平对外开放进程及2029、2035畅想》（点击蓝色字体可下载查看全文）研究报告。俄罗斯自由经济协会副主席、俄罗斯科学院院士、原俄罗斯总统普京经济顾问谢尔盖·格拉济耶夫（Sergey Glaziev）线上出席会议并发表主旨演讲，现将其发言内容（中英文）及视频整理发布如下：
最近，全世界都在关注中国共产党二十届三中全会的决议，我想围绕进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化来发表一些我的观点。这份决议非常重要，从中我可以清楚地看到，中国领导层有明确的愿景和战略规划，也将会实现这些基于科学方法的、全面的措施，这为经济、社会和技术领域的发展注入了新的动力。
首先，我们应该考虑中国经济和现代化发展所创造的机遇。根据三中全会决议内容，“中国式现代化是在改革开放中不断推进的，也必将在改革开放中开辟广阔前景。面对纷繁复杂的国际国内形势，面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革，面对人民群众新期待，必须继续把改革推向前进。”正如我提到的，中国领导层在过去几十年取得了非常令人瞩目的成就。中国采取了一系列措施以实现高质量的技术创新和经济增长，包括促进各种所有制经济共同发展；建立统一开放、公平竞争的市场；提升有效的政府治理、科学的宏观调控能力；深化供给侧结构性改革；深化科技体制改革等。
在过去的十年里（2012-2023年），中国高新技术企业由4.5万家增至46.5万家，增加了十倍。战略新兴产业增加值占GDP比例由4%增至15%，中国成为高科技领域的世界领导者。去年，中国的科研经费占国民收入比例升至2.64%，达到世界高研发强度国家水平。这意味着中国把科技进步作为实现现代化的主要机制，这是一种非常先进的方法。
与此同时，中国创造了一个非常多元化的经济，包括国有和私营部门等各种所有制形式。正如三中全会决议所提到的，促进各种所有制经济公平参与市场竞争，优势互补、共同发展。最重要的是，继续把改革推向前进，这是坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的必然要求，是贯彻新发展理念、更好适应中国社会主要矛盾变化的必然要求，是坚持以人民为中心、让现代化建设成果更多更公平惠及全体人民的必然要求。
人类命运共同体的发展，需要我们以战略主动，加快推动全球变革，开创世界经济增长的新趋势。在欧亚经济联盟，我们也在规划到2030年到2035年的进一步发展。当然，我们肯定会借鉴中国的做法，作为我们自己规划机制的指导方针之一，因为我们也希望看到欧亚经济联盟成为一个以人为本、高标准、以现代市场经济为导向的中心，以满足社会需求，实现人民福祉。中国给我们树立了一个很好的榜样。我相信，通过构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，中国将提高各生产要素的使用效率和资源配置，作为一名经济学家，我认为这是一个非常正确的方法。
在俄罗斯，我们围绕国有企业和民营企业的角色，以及如何将二者结合起来，展开了激烈的辩论。我认为，中国模式给了我们一个明确的答案，即国有企业与民营企业的比例优化和共存。正如我们在《决议》中所看到的，中国政府将“进一步明晰不同类型国有企业功能定位，完善主责主业管理，明确国有资本重点投资领域和方向。”确实，国有资本投资是中国经济增长机制中非常重要的一个部分。大家都知道，俄罗斯经历了大规模的私有化运动，这场私有化运动削弱了国有企业的作用。中国的经验告诉我们，国有企业可以成为宏观经济增长、维护稳定、促进投资的火车头。国企和民企的结合是中国经济增长模式的一个重要特征。政府和民间的合作创造了巨大的机会，可以利用民企来实现经济增长、经济协调的目标，并为经济发展创新新的机遇。值得一提的是，这种国企和民企的结合为投资增长创造了非常好的激励机制。
正如我之前提到的，中国经济的一个特点就是非常高的投资积累率。从长远来看，政府的投资机制支持重大项目建设，发挥公私利益结合、市场驱动的机制，促进高效投资的自我维持增长。这是确保投资有效，优化并促进经济增长和人民福祉的保证。中国已经成为一个非常开放的经济体，进入到新时代的高水平对外开放阶段。我们清楚地看到，中国不仅对国际贸易开放，也参与国际投资活动。在2035年的未来规划中，中国领导层强调“以新发展理念引领改革，立足新发展阶段，深化供给侧结构性改革，完善推动高质量发展激励约束机制，塑造发展新动能新优势。”
战略规划和市场竞争相协调是中国经济的另一大特点。这创造了一个复杂的机制，其中战略规划为民营企业提供有用的指导，就像为了促进投资而建立金融体系一样。宏观经济政策、货币政策、税收政策、外贸体制等结合起来，形成一个整体系统，为经济增长提供更多的机会。因此我们看到，中国经济变得越来越复杂，但也变得越来越全面。非常重要的是，在这份决议中，我们看到，中国共产党的领导层正在“抓紧打造自主可控的产业链供应链，健全强化集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备、仪器仪表、基础软件、工业软件、先进材料等重点产业链发展体制机制”等。
在科研人员数量、研发经费投入等方面，中国已经成为全球最大的科技国家。但现在，我认为中国领导层正在努力创建一个新的、更高效的科技计划管理体系，这将是非常有组织的，包括构建科技安全风险监测预警和应对体系；鼓励开展高风险、高价值基础研究；构建同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制；优化高校、科研院所、科技社团对外专业交流合作管理机制；建立企业研发准备金制度，这对避免高风险非常重要。对中国来说，在进一步全面深化改革和高水平对外开放的新时期，科学界的角色极其重要。正如我已经提到的，中国已经成为在全球研发支出和科学家、工程师数量上最大的国家。
到2035年，中国有望成为全球第一大经济体，多数行业科技实力达到世界一流水平，持续成为各国企业、个人最喜欢的投资热土。我相信，在进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的新时代，这将创造新的世界经济模式的核心。中国已经成为实体经济领域的领头羊，也是投资领域的佼佼者，并正在成为科技进步的领衔者。当然，中国是一个相当大的经济体，而且有望成为世界上最大的经济体。很明显，中国有能力创造自己的供应和需求、高附加值技术链，并且能够自我循环，自我生产，自我组织，自给自足。我们看到，世界从20世纪由苏联和美国主导的旧经济模式，正过渡到新的世界经济模式。我们期待着多极经济组织的出现，而中国必将在这一新经济模式中发挥核心作用。
“一带一路”倡议为世界各国加入新经济模式提供了机会。在欧亚经济联盟，我们正努力将自身的区域经济组织与“一带一路”建设结合起来。我们看到，中国经济到2035年的发展计划十分清晰，并且明确给我们提供了对接与结合的机会。欧亚经济联盟一体化模式与中国的发展模式相结合，这将为由俄罗斯总统普京倡导的欧亚伙伴关系奠定坚实基础。欧亚经济联盟正努力在原经济联盟各国元首签署的《欧亚经济路线图》的基础上，制定到2035年的发展规划。我们现在看到的中国的新时代发展规划，可以和欧亚经济委员会提出的规划结合在一起，在现代化、和谐、福祉、和平与繁荣的理念基础上，创造我们共同的未来。
以下为演讲内容的英文版
All the world during the last few days, watched the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China resolution, which I'd like to make few comments, further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernization and since it is very important document and looking at it, I have clear understanding that Chinese leadership have clear vision, have strategic plans, which will be implemented because they're based on the scientific approach and they are comprehensive. This gives new impulse for development, both economic, social and technical sphere.
First of all, we should think about the opportunities, which are creating for the Chinese economy and modernization. According to the resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, “As Chinese modernization has been advanced continuously through reform and opening up, it will surely embrace broader horizons through further reform and opening up. To deal with complex developments both at home and abroad, adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and live up to the new expectations of our people, it is vital that we continue to advance reform. ”This is the citation from this resolution. What is the most important from my point of view in this approach? As I mentioned, Chinese leadership got a very ambitious results during the last decade. China took a series of measures to achieve high quality technological innovation and economic growth, such as promoting the common development of economics of all ownership, building a unified, open and comprehensive competitive market improvement, the government capacity for governance and macroeconomic control, supply side structural reforms, reforms, the science reform and the science and technology system.
For the last ten years, the number of Chinese innovation companies increased from approximately 45,000 to around 465,000, which means they increased ten times. The proportion of the added value of strategic emerging industries in GDP rose from 4 to 15%. China becomes the world leader in high tech sector. In the last year, the total research and development expenditures accounted for 2.64% of GDP, reaching the level of world-class countries with high R&D intensity. It means that China use the science and technology progress as a main mechanism for modernization. And this is quite up to date approach.
At the same time, China created a very diverse economy, which includes both state owned and private sector, and all the ownership, as mentioned in this resolution of the Communist budget of Congress, all the types of ownership have equal opportunities. So the most important in this approach is that advancing reform is essential for upholding and improving the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and modernizing China’s system and capacity for governance, for putting the new development philosophy into practice and better adapting to the evolution in the principal contradiction in Chinese society, and for adhering to a people-centered approach to see that the gains of modernization benefit all our people fairly.
The development of human community with the shared future, and we need the strategic initiative to accelerate the global changes, create a new trend of growth in the world economy. By the way, here in the Eurasian Economic Union, we are also now planning our further development until the year 2030 to 2035. And for sure we shall use this Chinese approach, as one of the guidelines for our own planning mechanism, because we also want to see the Eurasian Economic Union as a directive center for the people, for the investments, with the high standards, with the modern market economy oriented to the social needs for the well-being of the population. And China gives us a very good example. And I’m sure that, building the modern market socialist economy, China will increase the efficiency of all the resources which are used in the country. As an economist, I should say that this is a very good and right approach.
Here in Russia, we have prominent debates about the role of state owned companies and the role of private companies, how to combine the state owned sector, together with private competitive sector. And I think that, Chinese model give us a clear answer that, showing the optimized the proportion and the coexistence between state owned enterprises and private sector. And as we see it, in those plans that the Chinese government clearly defined the functions of different types of social owned enterprises and proclaim the tasks to improve the management of the program and primary responsibilities and core business identified the key areas and orientation of state capital investments. Really, the search capital investments, a very important part of the Chinese mechanism of economic growth.
For instance, in Russia, you know, we moved through the huge privatization campaign and this privatization campaign undermined the role of state owned companies. And Chinese experience showed us that the state owned companies can be a locomotive for macroeconomic growth, for maintaining stability and for promotion investments. So this combination of private and state owned companies is a very important feature of the Chinese model of economic growth. The government private partnership really creates a huge opportunities to use private entrepreneur in order to achieve the goals of the economic growth, the goals for the harmonization of economy to create new opportunities for economic development. It is noteworthy to mention that this combination of state owned private companies, create very good incentives, for the growth of investments.
As I mentioned, the strong feature of the Chinese economy is very high accumulation rate of investments. And in the long term, government investment mechanisms are supporting the development of major projects, using the combination of public and private interests and market driven mechanism for ensuring self-sustaining growth of efficient investments. So this is the guarantee that investments will be efficient and will be optimized, by the criteria of the growth of economy and the well-being of the population. China becomes a very open economy, and to the new era is called high standard open up. And we see clearly, that China is open economy, not only in terms of international trade, but participate in international investment activity. We really see that in the future plans for the year 2035, the Chinese party leadership apply the new development philosophy to steer reforms and ground the efforts in the new stage of development, this supply side structural reforms improve incentive and constraint mechanism for promoting the high quality development and strive to create new growth drivers and strengths.
The strong feature of the Chinese economy is the harmonization of strategic planning and market competition. It creates the complex mechanisms where strategic planning, useful guidelines for the private entrepreneurs, the financial system is created in such a way to promote investments. And all the parts of the macro economic policy, monetary policy, taxation policy, or foreign trade regulation are combined as a holistic system, which is designed to give more opportunities for economic growth. And for this reason, we see that Chinese economy becomes more and more complex. It becomes more and more holistic. it is very important that in this political document, we see that the Party leadership is trying to build industrial and supply chains that are self-supporting and risk-controllable, improve the institutions and mechanisms for bolstering key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, medical equipment, instruments, basic software, industrial software, and advanced materials.
China has already becomes the largest, science and technology country in terms of number of scientists, the amount of expenditures for research and development. But now, as I see it, the Chinese leadership is trying to create a new more efficient system of management in science and technology policy, which will be very well organized, which will include various paths of control and monitoring, researchers will have opportunities to for high-risk innovations, government will help innovation activity with the various systems of the finance, strengthen enterprise led collaboration between industries, universities, research institutes, reserved fund systems, which is very important to avoid high risks. The very important part of this in a new era, for the Chinese, deepening the reforms and high standard opening up is the role of scientific community. As I already mentioned, China becomes, already the largest country in terms of research and development expenditures and number of scientists and engineers.
In the year 2035 China is expected to become the world's largest economy, with sensitive technologies strengths in most industrial region world's first class level. China continued to be one of the most favorite investment hotspot for enterprises and individual from all over the world. I am sure that that news this new era of Chinese reforms, which a comprehensive and deepening and will be based on modernization, will create the core for the new world economic mode. Sharing that already becomes the lead in the country, in the real sector of economy, it becomes the leading country in the investment activity and it is becoming the leading country in science and technological progress. Of course, China is rather a big, economy, the largest in the world. And it is quite clear that a China is, able to create its own, supply and demand value added technology, logical change. It chains, and to be self, productive, self organized and self-sufficient at the same time, we see the transition from the old, old economic mode, which was dominated by the Soviet Union and the United States for the whole of the 20th century. We are coming to the new world economic mode, where we expect to receive multipolar economic organization. And China for sure will play the role of the core or this new rules economic mode.
The One Belt, One Road Initiative give opportunity for all other countries to join the call or the new economic mode. And here in the Eurasian Economic Union, we are trying to combine our Eurasian economic organization with the Chinese initiative of the One Belt, One Road, and we see that the plans for the further development of Chinese economy until the year 2035 are quite clear and openly give us opportunity for combination. Our integration model with the Chinese model of development, this will create the basis for the alleged Eurasian partnership, which was declared by the Russian President Mr. Putin. In the Eurasian Economic Union, we are trying to elaborate our plan for the development of our countries to till the 2035 on the basis of declaration, the Eurasian Economic Road, which was signed by the heads of the states of the original economic union. And those plans which we see now in China for the new era or development and those plans which we have liberation here in the Eurasian Economic Commission could be combined together, and we can create our common future, based on the ideas of modernization of harmonization, of well-being, of peace and prosperity of all the nations.
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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