一带一路｜杨贤：东盟国家的黄金契机

新加坡将于2018年接任东盟轮值主席国，对于东盟区域来说，其首要任务即是推进合作、创新以及包容性增长。

这为东盟与中国创造了一个合作共赢的黄金机遇，在本区域内共同推动“一带一路”倡议（“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”），这无疑将会促进各国政府、多边国际组织以及企业携手开展国际合作，分享经济发展的红利。 

▲ 29国领导人及政府高级官员出席“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛（中国日报图片）

“一带一路”倡议使得全球的企业与劳动力以低成本的方式联系起来，这是各国为实现美好明天而努力的自然渴望。尤其是对于日益一体化的亚洲来说，更是如此。

亚洲的区域内贸易现在已经飙升至欧元区水平。此外，巨量的跨境投资额也体现出了区域内日益深化的产能与资源的互补与整合，同时在满足传统的西方消费者以及亚洲市场激增的消费。

杨贤 | Bernard Yeung

新加坡国立大学商学院院长

Stephen Riady杰出讲座教授

研究领域：发展经济学、战略管理、政策与金融等

亚洲开放银行（ADB）的数据显示，亚洲的经济增长占到全球的60%以上。为了维持增长，我们不仅要识别和把握跨境合作的机会，更要激发创新。

这需要两个前提条件，一个是经济的开放性，另一个则是有助于互联互通的良好的基础设施。

合作前景乐观但需各国善政

“一带一路”倡议的好处非常明显。长期来看，它能带来乐观的前景：有效且成本低廉的互联互通，自然会促进经济合作与创新；短期内，基础设施投资会迅速刺激全球经济增长。

那么，中期呢？这是一个值得思考的角度，很有意思。“一带一路”预示着一个很有吸引力的经济前景，能够激发政府行为以及资本市场的改善与进步。尽管前路光明，却也同时需要面对严重的资源约束，这必然促使各国政府增强自律。

众所周知，基础设施的投资成本非常高。根据麦肯锡的数据，从现在至2030年，若要跟上全球GDP的增速，基础设施的缺口约57万亿美元。仅就经济类基础设施而言，亚洲的需求约8万亿美元。

令人震惊的数字其实还有更多，但没有一个国家的政府可以满足这些资本需求，中国也做不到。

▲ 一带一路高峰会于2017年5月14日在北京举行，中国国家主席习近平在高峰会上发表讲话（资料图片）

很显然，这就需要私有企业的配合和介入。吸引私有企业投资者的唯一方法就是提供银行可担保的投资项目(bankable projects)——让私有企业的投资者能够回收成本，并获得有基本保障的回报，才能使得发展更可靠。

这就意味着各国政府需要采取行动，强化对基础设施投资机会的选择，并确保善政。另外，在紧张的资金约束之下，各国政府在项目落实过程中需要学会节制，包括提高生产力，以及发展基础设施的同时，推动创新。

实现优势互补的黄金契机

此外，“一带一路”相关项目从设计上就要求加强各国政府的合作。如果能促成双赢局面，各国政府就更有意愿参与其中。这种政府间的合作可以带来令人畅想的无限可能。

东盟成员国一定可以从优质的基础设施投资中受益——不仅仅是道路、交通、港口，还有水电设施等。

这是东盟与中国之间实现优势互补合作的绝佳机会。例如，新加坡可以为项目带来管理能力、机场工程，以及水资源管理等经验，中国可以提供修建高铁技术……类似这样的项目，其实可以列出一个长长的且亮眼的清单。

▲ 一带一路沿线区域合作路线图（资料图片）

东盟、中国以及亚洲其他经济体之间应以此为契机，实现长期友好的合作。世界银行、亚洲基础设施投资银行、亚洲开放银行等国际组织也同样可以发挥巨大的作用。

他们可以通过培养信息共享、监测项目实施以及落实政府承诺等方式来做出贡献，来减轻市场对政府违约的担忧。

另外，在为投资前景制定标准方面，他们也可以提供指导，用以加强投资机构的可贸易性（tradability）。

融资可行性（bankability）要取决于流动性。对资本的需求可能会刺激资本市场的发展，其中包括推进有适度管理和规范的证券化合同（securitization contracts）。

前路光明，却亦有荆棘。比如，有些项目会面临建筑材料短缺，工程和项目管理能力不足等问题。但这些问题，其实是可以克服的。

要实现“一带一路”倡议，现实中最大的困境在于各国多以自我为中心，以及短期的价值取向。各国领导人要做出正确的选择，而不是只在乎眼前的得失、政绩，并且要保证长期的合作与发展不被国家的自我意识所扭曲。

 “一带一路”倡议的愿景是实现世界各国的友好合作与共同繁荣。在这样一个远景目标之下，新加坡、东盟、中国以及其他亚洲国家，可以拿出勇气与雄心，携手向世界展示出领导力，共同应对当下我们所面临的诸多挑战，比如，日渐崛起的民族主义、本土主义，以及一些自私、狭隘的政客治理。

英文版

Initiative offers ASEAN a golden opportunity

by Bernard Yeung

China Daily 2017-05-15

Assuming the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2018, Singapore's priority for the regional bloc would be to advance cooperation, innovation and inclusive growth. This is a golden opportunity for ASEAN and China to cooperate and advance the Belt and Road Initiative (the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road) in the region, which will stimulate governments, multilateral organizations and the private sector to join forces to cultivate international cooperation and shared economic advancement.

The Belt and Road Initiative connects businesses and people around the world at reduced costs. This is a natural desire of economies craving a better tomorrow, particularly for an increasingly integrated Asia. Asia's intra-regional trade has surged to eurozone levels. Furthermore, high-level cross-border investments reflect the integration of complementary production capabilities and resources to serve both traditional Western consumers and surging Asian consumption.

According to the Asian Development Bank, Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world's growth. To sustain this growth, we need to identify and capture cross-country synergies and stimulate innovation. This is predicated on economic openness and good physical infrastructure which strengthens connectivity.

The Belt and Road Initiative's benefits are clear. In the long run, it promises a rosy outlook: affordable connectivity that will naturally lead to economic cooperation and innovation. In the short run, infrastructure investment will immediately stimulate global growth.

The intriguing consideration is that, in the intermediate term, the Belt and Road Initiative's promise of an attractive economic outlook inspires improvements in government behavior and capital markets. The gist of this logic is that the Belt and Road Initiative's obvious rosy outlook combined with severe resource constraints will induce disciplined economic behavior.

Infrastructure investment is costly. McKinsey estimates that $57 trillion in infrastructure investment is required between now and 2030 to simply keep pace with global GDP growth. For economic infrastructure alone, Asia will require $8 trillion. There are many other similarly startling numbers. No government alone can meet these capital needs, not even China.

Clearly, the private sector needs to chime in. The only way to attract private sector investors is to offer bankable projects: developments that will reliably get private sector investors back their principal and promised returns.

This means governments will have to behave: prioritize the selection of infrastructure opportunities and ensure good governance. Additionally, to live within tight capital constraints, governments have to learn to be economical in implementation; this includes raising productivity and driving innovation in developing infrastructure.

Besides, the Belt and Road projects by design require meaningful government cooperation. Governments will oblige if there is a win-win situation. This inter-government cooperation is a particularly fascinating possibility. ASEAN member states can definitely benefit from good infrastructure investment－not just roads, transportation and ports, but also utilities such as water and electricity.

This is a good opportunity for ASEAN and China to cooperate using complementary capabilities across countries. For example, Singapore can bring project management capability, airport engineering, and water management to the table, while railroad engineering can come from China. The list is long and impressive. Cooperation can be the impetus for long-lasting friendship among ASEAN, China, and other Asian economies.

Multilateral organizations such as the World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Asian Development Bank surely have great roles to play. They can contribute by cultivating information sharing, monitoring project implementation and enforcing governmental promises to alleviate fears of governments reneging on their commitments.

Moreover, they can guide the development of standard documentation for investment prospects, which will enhance investment instruments' tradability.

Bankability depends on liquidity. The need for capital may stimulate development in capital markets, including advancing appropriately governed and standardized securitization contracts. There could be obstacles. For example, projects could run into shortages of construction materials, while engineering, and project management capabilities may be lacking. These can be overcome.

The greatest obstacle to the attainment of the Belt and Road Initiative vision is economies' self-centeredness and short-term orientation. It takes leadership to do the right thing for us all: not to compete for short-term glory, political results and not to let national ego distort long-term rationality.

The Belt and Road Initiative vision is for the long term－harmonious cooperation and shared development for the world. Singapore, ASEAN, China and other Asian economies, with long-term vision and courage, can show leadership to the world, which is now being threatened by nationalism, nativism and self-serving statesmanship.

The author is Dean and Stephen Riady Distinguished Professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School

文章英文版首发于中国日报2017年5月15日

原题为“Initiative offers ASEAN a golden opportunity”

作者： Bernard Yeung（杨贤）, 新加坡国立大学商学院院长、李棕杰出讲座教授

部分配图来自网络