贸易战9个月，达成协议更近还是远了

了解最新的国内国际时事热点；学习地道的时政英语表达，请关注Global Times 每日的双语社评。

A group of US officials led by US Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish are due in Beijing Monday and Tuesday for negotiations with the Chinese side. On Friday local time, US President Donald Trump said he was confident Beijing and Washington would reach a deal to bring to a close the months-long trade dispute. Noting that talks are underway with China "at the highest levels," Trump said, "I think we will make a deal with China. I really think they want to. I think they sort of have to."

由美国副贸易代表格里什率领的工作组定于星期一、星期二在北京与中方工作组磋商。美国时间星期五，特朗普总统表示，他对美中达成协议、结束长达数月的贸易争端抱有信心，他说，美国正与中国进行最高级别谈判，而且情况良好。他还说：“我认为我们将与中国达成协议，我真的认为他们想要达成协议，我认为他们不得不这么做。”

This statement conveyed the tone of the US side's evaluation of the prospects of China-US trade negotiations: Washington is optimistic over a possible trade deal with Beijing and it is emphasizing that China hopes to reach the agreement. 

这一表态大体传递了美方评价中美贸易谈判前景的基调，一是表达对中美达成协议持乐观态度，二是强调中方希望达成协议。

However, the overall situation of the negotiations is much more than this simple assessment. One significant factor touched upon lightly by US media is that a deal ending the trade war is not only China's will, but also that of the US. 

不过中美贸易谈判的整体情形远远不只有这两个元素。为了让世人了解中美谈判的综合形势，我们认为将美国舆论淡化处理的一些信息予以补足，同样是非常必要的。其中最重要的是：达成协议，结束贸易战，不仅是中国的意愿，也是美国方面的意愿。

China's stance has been consistent from the very beginning: It would be a good thing to achieve an agreement, but it knows the result cannot be forced. Otherwise China would not time and again counterattack with its own tariffs against US tariffs on Chinese goods. In other words, if Beijing had wanted to raise the white flag, it would have done so already. The longer the trade war continues, the less unrealistic expectations the outside world should hold for China. 

中国的立场自始至终的延续性非常好。能够达成协议是很好的事，但同时也是不能强求的事，如果仔细看，中国其实从一开始就是这样的态度。否则的话，中国就不会一次次对美方加征关税坚决采取报复行动了。换句话说，中国如果想举白旗，早就举了。越是往后，外界越不应对中方抱有不切实际的期待。

The trade war has lasted nine months. One thing is getting increasingly clear: A trade war leads to losses on both, even multiple, sides. No country benefits. The US is indeed the most powerful country, but in a trade war, there is no winner-takes-all scenario. Washington's losses appear slower, but what will be will be. 

贸易战延续9个月，有一个道理在得到越来越清晰的验证，那就是贸易战真的是双输和多输，谁也从中得不到好处。美国的实力最强，但贸易战完全不是想象中的“赢者通吃”，美方的损失可能会显现得慢一些，但该有的损失最终一样也不会缺席。

Apple and Cargill are both giants of the US economy, but their performance had obviously been hit by year's end. The trade war hit the global supply chain and the confidence of countries in their economic growth. How can the US economy, the hub of globalization, win when everyone else is losing? 

苹果、嘉吉堪称美国经济不同领域的巨无霸，但它们的业绩到岁末年初时都爆出受到贸易战的明显侵蚀。贸易战打击了全球供应链，冲击了各国经济增长的信心，美国经济类似全球化的最大集合处，它怎么可能“世人皆输吾独赢”呢？

Regardless of what the White House says or whether there are differences among US officials, the vice-ministerial-level trade talks will take place Monday. This is the first face-to-face negotiation between the two sides since their top leaders reached a vital consensus in Argentina. 

不管白宫说什么，也不管美国官员的表态是否存在差异，中美副部长级贸易磋商毕竟要在星期一开起来了，这是中美元首阿根廷达成重要共识以来两国贸易工作团队的首次面对面谈判。

Given the trade volume and controversies between the two countries, if they want to realize the deal in the less than two months left of the 90-day truce, the key is to implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state. 

两国贸易规模如此之大，争议如此之多，要在90天休战期剩下的不到两个月中达成协议，最关键的还是两国工作团体要坚定落实中美元首的重要共识。

A good China-US trade agreement that can stand the test of time must be fair and realistic. Most of it will be carried out by nongovernmental actors of the two sides. They lack channels to forcefully promote any impractical policies to the ordinary people. Mutual respect for one another's interests is required by the very nature of China-US trade. It is hoped the latest round of talks can succeed on this basis. 

中美之间好的、经得起时间考验的贸易协议一定得是公平的，实事求是的，因为协议的执行大都要由两国民间机构来完成，国家根本没有将不切实际的政策强行向民间推动的渠道。相互尊重对方利益是中美贸易的性质所要求的，希望中美副部长级磋商作为两国谈判的重要一环，在这一基础上取得成功。

---

本文系环球网、环球时报英文网站社评，中文部分有所删减。

其他精彩，请戳图片阅读：