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World population faces a long slide into "demographic winter"

留学杂志 2022-06-17

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1

Countries Are Confronting 

Population Stagnation



All over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals.


Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing towards more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else.


Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time.



The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatens to upend how societies are organised — around the notion that a surplus of young people will drive economies and help pay for the old.

2

America’s Population 

Advantage Has Evaporated



Data from the 2020 Census indicates that the U.S. population is now growing more slowly than at any time since World War II.


There are two ways a nation’s population can grow: Having babies, or taking in immigrants. The U.S. used to be very good at both of these things, but no longer.


According to both the World Bank and the Population Reference Bureau, by 2018 the U.S. total fertility rate has fallen to around 1.73, in line with the likes of Denmark and the U.K.



With immigration and fertility both down, the U.S. is projected to age rapidly. Even before Covid, the median age was projected to rise to 43 by 2060 from 38 today. The size of the 55+ age group is growing rapidly, while the number of young people is barely budging.

3

South Korea’s Population 

Retreated To 2016 Levels 



South Korea’s population retreated to 2016 levels as of last month, with the demographic figure posting unprecedented negative growth over the past 1 1/2 years.


In May, Seoul took the lead in the decline as the number of residents fell by 13,356 on-month. The capital’s population dropped to the level to that of the mid-1980s to stay at 9.57 million.


Deaths outnumbered births nationwide last month by 24,627 vs. 21,907 -- a reversal of the situation in past decades. While the nationwide gap between deaths and births stood at 2,720, other factors pushed the population decrease to 19,075 people in May.


The factors included the tally for foreigners, the long-term residency status of Koreans overseas and foreign nationals here, or citizenship changes (Koreans renouncing their citizenship and foreigners acquiring Korean citizenship).



Data from the Interior Ministry  showed that Korea, an aged society by United Nations’ standards, saw the people’s average age reach a historic high of 43.4 (42.3 for men and 44.5 for women).

4

Japan's Child Population 

Hits Record Low 



Japan’s estimated child population has hit a record low after falling for 40 straight years, government data showed Tuesday, providing further evidence of the country’s aging population.


The number of children age 14 or younger stood at 14.93 million as of April 1, some 190,000 fewer than a year before and the lowest figure among comparable data available since 1950, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.


The proportion of children within the overall population also fell to its lowest point — 11.9% — after 47 straight years of decline.


Japan has the lowest such ratio among the 33 countries with a population of over 40 million, below South Korea’s 12.2% and Italy’s 13.3%, according to the U.N. Demographic Yearbook.



The ministry said there were 7.65 million boys and 7.28 million girls.
Children age up to 2 accounted for 2.65 million of the total, relatively lower than other age brackets and reflecting a decline in the number of births, the ministry said.
The child population in Japan peaked in 1954 at 29.89 million. It briefly picked up around the early 1970s but has continued to fall since 1982.

来源:Japantimes、Koreaherald、Telegraphindia,图片源于网络,如侵删。


记者:胡墨涵监制:李璨
责任编辑:汝元昕





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