前沿| How Democracy Ends?民主何以终结

让每一个人自由地理解政治

让世界各地的学人成果互联互通

让政治学人的核心关切得到传播

让每位闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空

政治学人始终在路上

本期国际化部为大家带来了《民主如何终结》（How Democracy Ends by David Runciman）的书评编译。

编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。

PART
一

书评作者

Tom Ginsburg是芝加哥大学国际法Leo Spitz讲席教授、政治学教授，也是American Academy of Arts and Sciences成员。他由于在国际法和比较法方面的研究而闻名，其中尤其擅长宪法以及东亚区域的研究。他的代表书籍包括How to Save a Constitutional Democracy, Rule by Law: The Politics of Courts in Authoritarian Regimes等。除了七本著作外，他还发表了大量的期刊和法律评论文章。本篇书评摘自Political Science Quarterly 2019年第4期。

PART
二

书评译文

It is hardly a secret that democracy is in trouble around the world, and the phenomenon of backsliding has prompted a small wave of books diagnosing the problem and suggesting solutions. David Runciman's contribution to this literature is a breezy and readable tour through mechanisms and alternatives. Easily weaving political theory with grounded examples, he has produced a highly accessible analysis focusing more on diagnosis than cure.

民主在世界各地都遇到麻烦了，这不是什么秘密，这种退步的现象已经促成了一小波书籍的问世，这些书对问题进行诊断并且提出解决方案。David Runciman 为这类文献添砖加瓦，他的书轻松易读，展现了各种（民主的）机制和可能性。他轻松地将政治理论和接地气的例子结合在一起，他的分析更多关注的是诊断而不是药方，非常好理解。

Runciman's title is to be distinguished from accounts of how specific democracies are dying or what might be done to save constitutional democracy. Instead, he focuses on the idea that Western democracy is undergoing something of a midlife crisis. Nothing lasts forever, and while democracy has had a pretty good run, it now “looks exhausted in the places it has the deepest roots” (p. 72). Contemplating democracy's death, the book is organized around a series of mechanisms by which this might come about: coup, environmental catastrophe, technological displacement, and the various alternatives of benevolent and not so benevolent authoritarianism that have been put on offer. His main argument is that while we are attracted to democracy because of its history, the past does not repeat itself, and we are likely to face new challenges not yet contemplated. If democracy dies, the autopsy will be a new one.

有的书描述特定的民主政体是如何覆灭的，或者描述如何拯救宪政民主，作者的书和前者很不一样。作者关注的是西方民主正经历“中年危机”的观点。没什么是永垂不朽的，尽管民主一向运行良好，如今它“在自己根基最深厚的地方显出疲态了”（第72页）。这本书深入探讨了民主之死，围绕着以下一系列机制展开：政变、环境灾难、科技替代（人工），还有各种可加以利用的善意或非善意的威权体制。作者的主要论点是尽管我们因为民主的（辉煌）历史而喜欢民主，但过去的事是无法自我重复的，而且我们很可能会面临未曾预料的挑战。假如民主逝去，“尸检”也是过去从未出现过的。

The main rhetorical trope of the book is a biological one. Systems of government, the analogy suggests, have lifespans, progressing through birth, youth, middle age, to old age. While this metaphor is a tempting and at times useful one, it is not obviously correct. One problem is the level of analysis. Focusing on democracy as a mode of government really involves a set of discrete institutions, some of which appear to be going strong. If all things must end, how do we explain the continued reliance on, say, the ideas of law, rights, or majority voting, which have been around for thousands of years? After all, even democracy's antagonists these days use democratic forms, with elections, courts, and constitutions. These things are components of democracy, but not the phenomenon itself, which arguably has a more systemic quality. But why the system fails while some component parts can endure is not clear. Perhaps a better metaphor would be to treat systems of government as technologies that are invented, spread, and eventually are replaced by something better.

本书主要用生理规律来打比方。（作者）类比道，政府系统是有寿命的，要经历出生、青年期，中年期，再到老年期。尽管这种比喻挺好，而且常常管用，但是并不是很对。分析的层级就是个问题。关注作为政府模式的民主就得涉及一系列各自分明的机制,有的机制是会越来越强大的。假如所有的（政府系统）都会走向终结，那我们怎么解释（人们）对诸如法律、权利，还有多数表决这类概念的持续依赖呢？它们都存在了几千年了。毕竟，那些民主体制的挑战者如今都用起了民主的形式，比如选举、法治和宪法。这些东西都是民主的组成部分，而不是民主本身，民主本身有作为整体的特性。尽管民主的组成部分能持续下去，但是民主体系还是会失败，其原因是什么，还不清楚。也许把政府系统比作（一种）被创造、推广，最后被更优者取代的技术会更好些。

While the book strikes a sober tone, it is hardly glib. Runciman recognizes that democratic societies have great capacity for internal renewal. As he notes, democracy in the United States has shown an amazing ability to reinvigorate itself in its darkest hours. When democracy gets stuck, we tend to expand the franchise and to reinvigorate participation. Another point to note in this regard is that the news of late has not been all bad. While populist leaders are on the rise in Europe and authoritarians spreading their influence in many other parts of the world, there have also been a few hopeful bright spots. Armenia's “Velvet Revolution” of 2018 witnessed mass protests that threw out a corrupt leader. That same year, Sri Lanka's democracy withstood an attempt by Mahinda Rajapaksa to come back through barely legitimate means. Many third‐wave democracies, from South Korea to Chile, seem to be performing fine, despite challenges.

尽管这本书用语平和，但是它并不轻描淡写。作者认识到民主社会有着强大的内部更新能力。如他所言，美国的民主已经展现出在最困难时期重焕生机的惊人能力。当民主受阻时，我们倾向于扩大选举权来重新激活（公民）参与。从这个角度来看，还需留意的一点是最近并非只有坏消息。尽管欧洲的民粹领袖势头强劲，威权主义者在世界各地扩大影响力，但是充满希望的光点还是存在的。2018年亚美尼亚的“天鹅绒革命”见证了把腐败领导赶下台的大规模抗议。同年，斯里兰卡的Mahinda Rajapaksa 妄图用非法手段重掌大权，该国的民主挺了过来。许多第三波民主国家，从韩国到智利，看起来运转得不错，尽管它们时不时地遭遇挑战。

The point is that what appears to be a wave of backsliding might simply be a blip on a long‐term upward trend, driven by citizens who wish for control over their lives. Let us hope so, but in the meantime, Runciman is a good guide to start contemplating the alternatives.

关键是，（民主）看似倒退的浪潮也许只是长期进步潮里的一个节点，希望掌握自己人生的公民们推动着这进步的潮流。希望一切如我们所愿，但同时，作者的书为思考其他的可能性提供了不错的指引。

编  译：夏夕钦

审  校：王汉林

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编辑：欧阳星

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