国际顶刊 | 《美国政治科学评论》2020年第4期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学评论》2020年第4期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 2
期刊简介
American Political Science Review（美国政治科学评论）是美国政治学会旗下最知名的期刊，创刊于1906年并由剑桥大学出版社出版，是政治学最早和最具权威的学术期刊。提供同行评审的文章和评论整个学科子领域的论文。2018年的影响因子为3.895，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第7。
期刊涉及领域包括：政治学理论、美国政治、公共政策、公共行政、比较政治和国际关系等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Which Identity Frames Boost Support for and Mobilization in the #BlackLivesMatter Movement? An Experimental Test
哪些身份框架能促进对“黑人的命也是命”运动的支持和动员？一次实验检验
The Distinctive Political Status of Dissident Minorities
持不同政见的少数群体的特殊政治地位
Representing Silence in Politics
代表政治中的沉默
Women’s Representation and the Gendered Pipeline to Power
妇女代表权和按性别划分的权力渠道
Respect for Subjects in the Ethics of Causal and Interpretive Social Explanation
在因果解释和诠释社会性解释的伦理中尊重主体
Institutionalized Police Brutality: Torture, the Militarization of Security, and the Reform of Inquisitorial Criminal Justice in Mexico
制度化的警察暴行：墨西哥的酷刑、安全军事化和审问式刑事司法改革
Gender, Law Enforcement, and Access to Justice: Evidence from All-Women Police Stations in India
性别、执法和司法救助：来自印度所有女警站的证据
Party Competition and Coalitional Stability: Evidence from American Local Government
政党竞争与联盟稳定性：来自美国地方政府的证据
The Quality of Vote Tallies: Causes and Consequences
投票统计的质量：原因和后果
Buying Power: Electoral Strategy before the Secret Vote
购买力：秘密投票之前的选举策略
Carving Out: Isolating the True Effect of Self-Interest on Policy Attitudes
刻画：隔离自我利益对政策态度的真实影响
Polarized Pluralism: Organizational Preferences and Biases in the American Pressure System
多元极化：美国压力集团中的组织偏好与偏见
What You See Is Not Always What You Get: Bargaining before an Audience under Multiparty Government
您所看到的并不总是您所能得到的：听众面前多党政府下的讨价还价
Deterrence with Imperfect Attribution
不完美归因下的威慑
How Much is One American Worth? How Competition Affects Trade Preferences
一个美国人值多少钱？看竞争如何影响贸易偏好
Learning about Growth and Democracy
学习增长与民主
Does Property Ownership Lead to Participation in Local Politics? Evidence from Property Records and Meeting Minutes
财产所有权是否导致个人更愿意参与地方政治？来自财产记录和会议备忘录的证据
Does Political Affirmative Action Work, and for Whom? Theory and Evidence on India’s Scheduled Areas
政治平权行动对谁有用？来自印度计划地区的理论和证据
Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats
外国威胁阴影下的专制稳定
From Tyrannicide to Revolution: Aristotle on the Politics of Comradeship
从暴政到革命：亚里士多德论同伴政治
Bridges between Wedges and Frames: Outreach and Compromise in American Political Discourse
“楔”与“框”之间的桥梁：美国政治话语中的外联和妥协
When to Worry about Sensitivity Bias: A Social Reference Theory and Evidence from 30 Years of List Experiments
何时需要担心敏感性偏差：一种社会参照理论和来自30年列表实验的证据
The Political Economy of Bureaucratic Overload: Evidence from Rural Development Officials in India
官僚过剩的政治经济学：来自印度农村发展官员的证据
PART 3
精选译文
01 哪些身份框架能促进对“黑人的命也是命”运动的支持和动员？一次实验检验
【题目】
Which Identity Frames Boost Support for and Mobilization in the #BlackLivesMatter Movement? An Experimental Test
【作者】
Tabitha Bonilla, Northwestern University
Alvin B. Tillery, Northwestern University
【摘要】
自2013年以来，“黑人的命也是命”（BLM）运动已在美国各大城市组织了数百次破坏性抗议活动。该运动引起了美国媒体和公众的高度关注。社会运动学者认为，这种强有力的动员通常是基于明确的社会运动框架来进行。Tillery（2019b）在BLM活动家的社交媒体传播中发现了几种不同的信息框架。在本文中，作者使用一项调查实验来测试其中三个框架——黑人民族主义、女权主义和LGBTQ+权利——对非洲裔美国人的动员效果。本文发现，接触这些框架会对受访者支持、信任、拉票和撰写有关BLM运动内容的意愿产生不同的影响。这些发现提出了有关种族正义运动中交叉信息传递策略部署的新问题。
The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has organized hundreds of disruptive protests in American cities since 2013 (Garza 2014; Harris 2015; Taylor 2016). The movement has garnered considerable attention from the U.S. media and is well recognized by the U.S. public (Horowitz and Livingston 2016; Neal 2017). Social movement scholars suggest that such robust mobilizations are typically predicated on clear social movement frames (Benford and Snow 2000; Snow et al. 1986). Tillery (2019b) has identified several distinct message frames within the social media communications of BLM activists. In this paper, we use a survey experiment to test the effect of three of these frames—Black Nationalist, Feminist, and LGBTQ+ Rights—on the mobilization of African Americans. We find that exposure to these frames generates differential effects on respondents’ willingness to support, trust, canvass, and write representatives about the Black Lives Matter movement. These findings raise new questions about the deployment of intersectional messaging strategies within movements for racial justice.
02 持不同政见的少数群体的特殊政治地位
【题目】
The Distinctive Political Status of Dissident Minorities
【作者】
David Schraub, University of California, Berkeley
【摘要】
“持不同政见的少数群体”是边缘化群体的成员，在对其集体解放至关重要的问题上，他们对共识小组的立场持异议。本文阐述了持不同政见的少数群体的独特政治地位，包括权力、脆弱性和义务。持不同政见的少数群体可能特别容易受到“自我仇视”的诽谤或排斥。但他们也可以通过将自己定位为其群体中的杰出模范成员来发挥重要的公众影响力。反过来，持不同政见的少数群体的权力和脆弱性都围绕着“令牌化”的前景----多数派团体参与者利用持不同政见的少数群体的不同意见，作为履行与整个少数群体接触的规定义务的一种手段。虽然持不同政见的少数群体应可自由地在公共空间坚持和倡导其不同的立场，但他们仍有一项特殊的义务，即不将自己作为与更广泛群体接触的适当替代者。
“Dissident minorities” are members of marginalized groups who dissent from the consensus group position on matters seen as critical to their group’s collective liberation. This paper articulates the distinctive political status—powers, vulnerabilities, and obligations—of dissident minorities. Dissident minorities may be especially vulnerable to slurs or ostracism as “self-hating.” But they also can wield significant public influence by positioning themselves as exceptional and exemplary members of their group. Both the powers and vulnerabilities of dissident minorities, in turn, converge around the prospect of “tokenization”—the use of the dissident minority’s dissident opinion by majority group actors as a means of discharging a stipulated obligation to engage with the minority group writ large. While dissident minorities should be free to hold and advocate for their divergent positions in public spaces, they retain a distinctive obligation to not offer themselves out as adequate replacements for engagement with the broader group.
03 代表政治中的沉默
【题目】
Representing Silence in Politics
【作者】
Monica Brito Vieira, University of York
【摘要】
民主代表制重视声音：它将声音视为其所代表的东西和主要的代表方式。本文认为，这种重视是有问题的，并转而对代表政治中的沉默提出一个基本问题：代表权可以使公民摆脱沉默的立场吗？作者分三个部分来探讨这个问题。首先，作者提出了一种新的沉默概念，认为最好将沉默理解为潜在或实际存在的场所。第二，作者使用统治者和流离失所者的参与标准来评估在传播带代表模式下保持沉默的尝试。第三，作者通过制定这些标准来评估声称代表沉默的选民发声的合法性，也就是声称代表(所谓的)沉默的大多数，以批判性地参与并加强了建构主义的代表观点。
Democratic representation focuses on voice: it conceives voice as that which is represented and as the prime mode of representing. This article argues that this focus is problematic and turns instead to silence to ask a fundamental question: Can representation empower citizens from their silent positions? I approach the question in three parts. First, I offer a new conceptualization of silence, arguing that silence is best understood as the site of a potential or actual presence. Second, I use criteria of domination and displaced involvement to assess attempts to enfranchise silence within the transmission-belt model of representation. Third, I critically engage and strengthen constructivist views of representation by developing these criteria to assess the legitimacy of claims to represent—speak about and for—silent constituencies—namely, the claim to represent an (alleged) silent majority.
04 妇女代表权和按性别划分的权力渠道
【题目】
Women’s Representation and the Gendered Pipeline to Power
【作者】
Danielle M. Thomsen, University of California, Irvine
Aaron S. King, University of North Carolina Wilmington
【摘要】
对于女性在美国政治中代表性不足的一个主要解释是，女性比男子更不可能竞选公职，但近年来，学者们较少关注竞选公职渠道的性别构成。本文研究了在三个潜在候选人池中的性别化的权力渠道：较低级别的公职官员、报纸上提到的可能的候选人，和做出政治贡献的律师。本文发现的一些证据表明，女性不太可能寻求竞选公职；然而，权力渠道中女性的匮乏很大程度上导致了女性候选人的缺乏。要想缩小候选人的性别差距，女性必须比男性更有可能参选公职，特别是在共和党的方面。本文的研究结果突出表明，在研究女性代表性不足的问题时，有必要考虑按性别划分的权力渠道和参选率。
The leading explanation for the underrepresentation of women in American politics is that women are less likely to run for office than men, but scholars have given less attention in recent years to the gender makeup of the pipeline to elected office. We examine the gendered pipeline to power across three potential candidate pools: lower-level officeholders, those named in newspapers as likely candidates, and lawyers who made political contributions. We find some evidence that women are less likely to seek elected office; however, the dearth of women in the pipeline plays a much greater role in the lack of women candidates. For the gender disparity in candidates to close, women have to be far more likely to run for office than men, particularly on the Republican side. Our results highlight the need to consider the gendered pipeline to power alongside rates of entry in studies of women’s underrepresentation.
05 在因果解释和诠释社会性解释的伦理中尊重主体
【题目】
Respect for Subjects in the Ethics of Causal and Interpretive Social Explanation
【作者】
Michael L. Frazer, University of East Anglia
【摘要】
解释社会现象的竞争因果法和诠释法在伦理上有着重要的区别。虽然人类的行为可以被解释为因果机制的结果，也可以被解释为基于原因的有意义的选择，或者是两者间的某种结合，但在道义上，社会科学家必须承认他人是人，从而尊重他人。诠释性解释以这种方式直接尊重其主体，而纯粹的因果解释则不然。尽管因果解释本身并不是尊重的表现，但如果将其纳入主体的自我指导项目中，就也可以用尊重的方式使用。当受试者通过知情同意的过程正确理解并自由接受研究者的目标时，这种情况就会发生。当研究者正确地理解并接受受试者的目标，利用对他们的研究来赋予研究者权力时，也会出现这种情况。
Rival causal and interpretive approaches to explaining social phenomena have important ethical differences. While human actions can be explained as a result of causal mechanisms, as a meaningful choice based on reasons, or as some combination of the two, it is morally important that social scientists respect others by recognizing them as persons. Interpretive explanations directly respect their subjects in this way, while purely causal explanations do not. Yet although causal explanations are not themselves expressions of respect, they can be used in respectful ways if they are incorporated into subjects’ self-directed projects. This can occur when subjects correctly understand and freely adopt researchers’ goals through a process of informed consent. It can also occur when researchers correctly understand and adopt their subject’s goals, using their research to empower those they study.
06 制度化的警察暴行：墨西哥的酷刑、安全军事化和审问式刑事司法改革
【题目】
Institutionalized Police Brutality: Torture, the Militarization of Security, and the Reform of Inquisitorial Criminal Justice in Mexico
【作者】
Beatriz Magaloni, Stanford University
Luis Rodriguez, Stanford University
【摘要】
社会如何才能约束其强制机构，并向更人道的刑事司法系统过渡？本文认为，有两个主要因素可以解释“为何即使在民主社会，酷刑也能作为一种普遍的做法持续存在”的问题：程序性保护不力，以及警务军事化（引入将犯罪嫌疑人当作战时敌人的战略、设备和思维）。通过对墨西哥监狱人口的大规模调查，并利用他们被逮捕的日期和地点，本文提供了关于这两个解释变量如何塑造警察暴行的因果证据。这篇论文为民主国家威权主义警务实践的生存提供了严峻的前景。它还提供了新的证据，说明废除审问式刑事司法机构(殖民主义遗产的残余和该地区的普遍趋势)在多大程度上抑制了警察的暴行。
How can societies restrain their coercive institutions and transition to a more humane criminal justice system? We argue that two main factors explain why torture can persist as a generalized practice even in democratic societies: weak procedural protections and the militarization of policing, which introduces strategies, equipment, and mentality that treats criminal suspects as though they were enemies in wartime. Using a large survey of the Mexican prison population and leveraging the date and place of arrest, this paper provides causal evidence about how these two explanatory variables shape police brutality. Our paper offers a grim picture of the survival of authoritarian policing practices in democracies. It also provides novel evidence of the extent to which the abolition of inquisitorial criminal justice institutions—a remnant of colonial legacies and a common trend in the region—has worked to restrain police brutality.
07 性别、执法和司法救助：来自印度所有女警站的证据
【题目】
Gender, Law Enforcement, and Access to Justice: Evidence from All-Women Police Stations in India
【作者】
Nirvikar Jassal, Stanford University
【摘要】
基于性别的 "飞地 "能否促进妇女获得司法救助？本文研究了印度的全女性警察站，并测试了针对特定群体的机构是否有助于在执法中协助基于性别的暴力受害者和女警官。本文根据印度警察的报告创建了一个原始数据集，并利用在哈里亚纳邦开设全女性警察站的方式来评估其因果关系。在执法中建立飞地并没有导致犯罪记录增加。事实上，这种干预措施通过证明性别犯罪的偏见合理，而降低了标准警察局的案件数量，减少了女警察的责任，并增加了受害者寻求赔偿的交通成本。这些机构以牺牲对嫌疑人的逮捕为代价，通过鼓励受害者与施虐者和解，使受害者的“咨询”正式化，而且调查证据表明，全女性警察站可能与对女警的积极看法无关。总的来说，本文认为，这个代表性的分离行为可能会产生意想不到的后果。
Can gender-based “enclaves” facilitate women’s access to justice? I examine all-female police stations in India and test whether group-specific institutions assist victims of gender-based violence and female officers in law enforcement. I create an original dataset based on Indian police reports and leverage the manner in which all-women police stations were opened in Haryana state to estimate their causal effect. The creation of enclaves in law enforcement does not increase registered crime. In fact, the intervention lowers the caseload at standard stations by justifying the deflection of gendered crimes, reduces responsibilities for policewomen, and increases travel cost for victims seeking redress. The institutions formalize the “counseling” of victims by encouraging reconciliation with abusers at the expense of arrest of suspects, and survey evidence suggests that all-women stations might not be associated with positive perceptions of policewomen. Broadly, I argue that representation as separation may have unintended consequences.
08 政党竞争与联盟稳定性：来自美国地方政府的证据
【题目】
Party Competition and Coalitional Stability: Evidence from American Local Government
【作者】
Peter Bucchianerl, Vanderbilt University
【摘要】
几十年来，政治学家们一直认为，竞争是负责任的政党体系的一个基本组成部分，因此，当一个政党主导政治时，立法联盟就会不稳定，民主问责制就会受到损害。在本文中，作者在一个重要但尚未被完全探索的立法环境中评估了这些预测：美国地方政府。通过使用151个市议会的原始唱名记录，本文表明，当选举中存在多党派且每个政党的支持者均衡分布时，立法行为就会更加单一化。然而，当上述任何一个特征不存在时，精英行为就是非结构化的，联盟会随着时间和议题的转移而变化。这些在制度和竞争环境下的差异表明，党派选举，以及几乎总是伴随着党派选举而来的政党组织，对于将选举的不安全感转化为有组织的政府是至关重要的，这就对全国各地越来越多的一党主导政府的选举问责能力提出了质疑。
For decades, political scientists have argued that competition is a fundamental component of a responsible party system, such that when one party dominates politics, legislative coalitions destabilize and democratic accountability suffers. In this paper, I evaluate these predictions in an important but largely unexplored legislative environment: American local government. Using an original collection of roll-call records from 151 municipal councils, I show that legislative behavior is more one-dimensional when elections are partisan and the electorate is evenly balanced between the parties. When either of these features is absent, however, elite behavior remains unstructured, with coalitions shifting over time and across issues. These differences across institutional and competitive contexts suggest that partisan elections—and the party organizations that nearly always come with them—are critical for translating electoral insecurity into organized government, raising questions about the capacity for electoral accountability in a growing set of one-party dominant governments across the country.
09 投票统计的质量：原因和后果
【题目】
The Quality of Vote Tallies: Causes and Consequences
【作者】
Cristian Challu, Carnegie Mellon University
Enrique Seira, ITAM-CIE
Alberto Simpse, ITAM-CIE
【摘要】
选举结果的可信度取决于投票记录的准确性。本文提供了关于计票质量差异的驱动因素和下游后果之间的因果关系证据。利用墨西哥五次全国大选的投票站数据，本文记录下超过40%的投票站级别的计票结果存在着不一致的情况。本文的证据有力地表明，这些矛盾与党派无关。利用150多万名投票站工作人员的数据，作者证明，教育程度较低、工作量较大以及计票工作的复杂性较高会导致更多的不一致。最后，本文利用对近8万名投票站工作人员的原始调查和详细的行政数据，发现这些不一致会导致重新计票，而重新计票会导致选民对选举机构的信任度降低。文章同时讨论了这一现象的政策影响。
The credibility of election outcomes hinges on the accuracy of vote tallies. We provide causal evidence on the drivers and the downstream consequences of variation in the quality of vote tallies. Using data for the universe of polling stations in Mexico in five national elections, we document that over 40% of polling-station-level tallies display inconsistencies. Our evidence strongly suggests these inconsistencies are nonpartisan. Using data for more than 1.5 million poll workers, we show that lower educational attainment, higher workload, and higher complexity of the tally cause more inconsistencies. Finally, using an original survey of close to 80,000 poll workers together with detailed administrative data, we find that inconsistencies cause recounts and recounts lead to lower trust in electoral institutions. We discuss policy implications.
10 购买力：秘密投票之前的选举策略
【题目】
Buying Power: Electoral Strategy before the Secret Vote
【作者】
Daniel Gingeric, University of Virginia
【摘要】
有关客户关系的研究强调利用经纪人来动员选民。为了有效地利用这些代理人，政治家必须了解经纪人的相对能力，并相应地分配稀缺资源。本文利用基于二十世纪中期巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州一位有权势的国会议员Gustavo Capanema档案的人工编码数据集，首次提供了这类学习动态的直接证据。该分析着重于巴西的前秘密投票时代，当时衡量经纪人的表现是特别直接的。与政治学习理论相一致的是，数据表明，流向地方机器的资源取决于在先前选举中获得的实际选票和预期选票之间的偏差。此外，鉴于政治家有能力辨别动员能力，向经纪人支付的费用对提高投票率非常有效。
Research on clientelism emphasizes the use of brokers to mobilize voters. To utilize these agents efficiently, politicians must learn about brokers’ relative abilities and allocate scarce resources accordingly. Drawing upon a hand-coded dataset based on the archives of Gustavo Capanema, a powerful mid-twentieth-century congressman from Minas Gerais, Brazil, this paper offers the first direct evidence of such learning dynamics. The analysis concentrates on Brazil’s pre-secret ballot era, a time when measuring broker performance was particularly straightforward. Consistent with theories of political learning, the data demonstrate that resource flows to local machines were contingent on the deviation between actual and expected votes received in previous elections. Moreover, given politicians’ ability to discern mobilization capacity, payments to brokers were highly effective in bringing out the vote.
11 刻画：隔离自我利益对政策态度的真实影响
【题目】
Carving Out: Isolating the True Effect of Self-Interest on Policy Attitudes
【作者】
Jake Haselswerdt, University of Missouri
【摘要】
自身利益在人们对公共政策的看法中有多重要？如果一项政策建议使目标群体中的一部分人免于承担其他人必须付出的代价，或者剥夺了他们将要享受的利益，他们是否会根据自身利益做出反应？本实验研究通过利用以下政策提案的一个共同特征，来区分真正的自我利益和对自己所在群体的亲和力：基于年龄进行“分割”，以防止原本相似的人口子群体受到新政策的利益或负担的影响（例如，削减养老项目，豁免特定年龄以上的人）。本文发现，对于免于削减医疗保险的老年美国人，和因年龄过大而无法从假定的学生债务减免计划中获益的年轻人来说，存在这种自我利益效应。而这些效应的变化与现存的理论是一致的。
How important is self-interest in people’s opinions about public policy? If a policy proposal exempts a subset of the target group from costs that others will have to pay, or denies them benefits that others will enjoy, do they respond according to self-interest? This experimental study distinguishes between true self-interest and affinity for one’s in-group by exploiting a common feature of policy proposals: age-based “carve-outs” that prevent otherwise similar subgroups of a population from being affected by the benefits or burdens of a new policy (e.g., cuts to an old-age program that exempt people above a certain age). I find self-interest effects for older Americans exempt from cuts to Medicare and younger people too old to benefit from a hypothetical student debt relief program. These effects vary in ways that are consistent with extant theory.
12 多元极化：美国压力集团中的组织偏好与偏见
【题目】
Polarized Pluralism: Organizational Preferences and Biases in the American Pressure System
【作者】
Jesse M. Crosson, Princeton University and Trinity University
Alexander C. Furnas, University of Michigan
Geoffrey M. Lorenz, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
【摘要】
几十年来，多元主义的批评者们一直认为，美国利益集团系统表现出了对政策偏好的明显偏向。为了评估这一论点，本文对集团表现出的偏好进行了直接测量，为超过2600个利益团体和950名国会议员共同制定了一套理想点估计值——IGscores（利益集团评分）。得分标准基于对庞大数据集的分析，即本文同时对利益团体对国会法案的立场，以及其在相同法案上的唱名表决进行衡量来得出评分。通过分析评分，本文揭示了利益集团系统中存在着显著的异质性：立法者与意识形态相似的群体之间在偏好一致性方面几乎没有保守的偏向和明显的党派差异。但是，在通过集团政治行动委员会捐款和游说支出对IGscores进行加权时，就会出现保守的偏见和同质性。这些发现表明，利益集团之间的偏见取决于政治行动委员会的贡献和游说等活动，在多大程度上可以影响政策制定者对组织利益偏好的看法。
For decades, critics of pluralism have argued that the American interest group system exhibits a significantly biased distribution of policy preferences. We evaluate this argument by measuring groups’ revealed preferences directly, developing a set of ideal point estimates, IGscores, for over 2,600 interest groups and 950 members of Congress on a common scale. We generate the scores by jointly scaling a large dataset of interest groups’ positions on congressional bills with roll-call votes on those same bills. Analyses of the scores uncover significant heterogeneity in the interest group system, with little conservative skew and notable inter-party differences in preference correspondence between legislators and ideologically similar groups. Conservative bias and homogeneity reappear, however, when weighting IGscores by groups’ PAC contributions and lobbying expenditures. These findings suggest that bias among interest groups depends on the extent to which activities like PAC contributions and lobbying influence policymakers’ perceptions about the preferences of organized interests.
13 您所看到的并不总是您所能得到的：听众面前多党政府下的讨价还价
【题目】
What You See Is Not Always What You Get: Bargaining before an Audience under Multiparty Government
【作者】
Lanny W. Martin, Bocconi University
Georg Vanberg, Duke University
【摘要】
联合政府的党内精英敏锐地意识到，他们所达成的交易将由其支持者进行严格评估，如果被视作无效的谈判者，他们就有失去支持的风险。这对党派各方的讨价还价有强大的影响。由于大多数支持者并不了解讨价还价的复杂性，而是依靠简单的启发式方法来评估其最明显的特征，因此党派的动机便是首先在最显而易见的结果上满足支持者的期望。为此，他们则要在不那么容易被观察到的结果上进行权衡。这意味着，在讨价还价中体现出的明显特征通常不能准确反映党派在联合谈判中的相对成功与否。我们使用来自16个议会民主国家的办公室奖励与投资组合分配的政策风险的原始数据来检验我们的论点，产生的结果对该论点提供了支持，同时对多党政府领导下的代表权性质具有重要意义。
Party elites in coalition governments are acutely aware that the deals they strike will be critically evaluated by their supporters, and that they risk losing support if they are perceived as ineffective negotiators. This has a powerful influence on the bargains parties strike. Because most supporters are unaware of the complex aspects of bargains and instead rely on simple heuristics to evaluate their most visible features, parties have incentives to meet supporter expectations primarily on easily observable outcomes. To do so, they make trade-offs on less observable outcomes. This implies that the more visible features of a bargain typically do not accurately reflect the relative success of parties in coalition negotiations. We evaluate our argument using original data on the office rewards and policy risks of portfolio allocation in 16 parliamentary democracies. Our findings support our argument, and they have important implications for the nature of representation under multiparty government.
14 不完美归因下的威慑
【题目】
Deterrence with Imperfect Attribution
【作者】
Sandeep Baliga, Northwestern University
Ethan Bueno De Mesquita, University of Chicago
Alexander Wolitzky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
【摘要】
受网络战争最新发展的推动，本文研究了当攻击无法完全归因于攻击者时威慑的作用。在模型中，n个攻击者中的每一个都可以攻击防御者。防御者观察到一个噪声信号，该噪声信号可能是攻击的原因。防御者可以对一个或多个攻击者进行报复，并且只想对有罪攻击者进行报复。本文注意到，攻击者之间存在内在的战略互补性：如果一个攻击者变得更具攻击性，则该攻击者将变得更“可疑”，而其他攻击者则变得不那么可疑，同时这也会导致其他攻击者也变得更具攻击性。除了存在这种互补性，还存在一种独特的平衡。本文确认了几种归因能力的改进类型，这些类型可以增强威慑力，即针对攻击者的可识别性产生的影响对攻击检测进行独立改善，减少错误警报，或将错误识别替换为未检测。然而，我们也证明了某些归因改进可能适得其反，从而削弱威慑力，其中包括在攻击者难以识别时检测更多攻击，或对归因的精确性要求过高。如果防御者可以提前采取报复策略，可以增强威慑力，但是防御者不应该总是在每个信号后声称会进行更多的报复。
Motivated by recent developments in cyberwarfare, we study deterrence in a world where attacks cannot be perfectly attributed to attackers. In the model, each of n attackers may attack the defender. The defender observes a noisy signal that probabilistically attributes the attack. The defender may retaliate against one or more attackers and wants to retaliate against the guilty attacker only. We note an endogenous strategic complementarity among the attackers: if one attacker becomes more aggressive, that attacker becomes more “suspect” and the other attackers become less suspect, which leads the other attackers to become more aggressive as well. Despite this complementarity, there is a unique equilibrium. We identify types of improvements in attribution that strengthen deterrence—namely, improving attack detection independently of any effect on the identifiability of the attacker, reducing false alarms, or replacing misidentification with non-detection. However, we show that other improvements in attribution can backfire, weakening deterrence—these include detecting more attacks where the attacker is difficult to identify or pursuing too much certainty in attribution. Deterrence is improved if the defender can commit to a retaliatory strategy in advance, but the defender should not always commit to retaliate more after every signal.
15 一个美国人值多少钱？看竞争如何影响贸易偏好
【题目】
How Much is One American Worth? How Competition Affects Trade Preferences
【作者】
Diana C. Mutz, University of Pennsylvania
Amber Hye-Yon Lee, University of Pennsylvani
【摘要】
在形成意见时，公众可能会或多或少地更重视某一部分人的福祉。本文研究了体现这种现象的两种形式（民族中心主义的评估和道德排斥）如何影响人们对国际贸易的态度。我们假设对竞争的态度以及对贸易是一种竞争的认同会缓和民族中心主义价值和道德排斥的程度；尽管所有公民从系统上来说相比于贸易国的民众更珍视本国同胞的生计，但是当贸易被视为竞争、并且个人对竞争持更积极的态度时，对民族中心主义的强调和道德排斥就会更大。通过对美国人和加拿大人的代表性样本进行的两次调查实验，本文检验了国内和国外工作得失的不同估值如何影响贸易政策偏好。本文使用与竞争态度相关的多个不同变量来检验一系列假设。
When forming opinions, mass publics may implicitly or explicitly value some people’s well-being more than others. Here we examine how two forms of this phenomenon—ethnocentric valuation and moral exclusion—affect attitudes toward international trade. We hypothesize that attitudes toward competition and believing that trade is a competition moderate the extent of ethnocentric valuation and moral exclusion; although all citizens value their co-nationals’ livelihoods systematically more than those of people in trading partner countries, greater ethnocentric valuation and moral exclusion occur when trade is seen as a competition and when individuals hold more positive attitudes toward competition. Using two survey experiments conducted on representative samples of both Americans and Canadians, we examine how differential valuation of in-country and out-country job gains and losses influences trade policy preferences. We test a series of hypotheses using multiple variables tied to competitive attitudes across two countries that differ in their attitudes toward competition.
16 学习增长与民主
【题目】
Learning about Growth and Democracy
【作者】
Scott F. Abramson, University of Rochester
Sergio Montero, University of Rochester
【摘要】
本文开发并估计了一个学习模型，该模型解释了观察到的经济发展与民主之间的相关性，以及民主化事件的聚类。在本文的模型中，国家和邻国过去的经验塑造了精英们对于民主对经济增长的影响的看法，以及他们保留权力的可能性。这些信念影响了向民主过渡或脱离民主的选择。本文表明，学习对于解释二十世纪中叶以来观察到的民主转型至关重要。此外，本文的模型预测，如果世界经历了大萧条规模的增长冲击，独裁主义可能会复辟。
We develop and estimate a model of learning that accounts for the observed correlation between economic development and democracy and for the clustering of democratization events. In our model, countries’ own and neighbors’ past experiences shape elites’ beliefs about the effects of democracy on economic growth and their likelihood of retaining power. These beliefs influence the choice to transition into or out of democracy. We show that learning is crucial to explaining observed transitions since the mid-twentieth century. Moreover, our model predicts reversals to authoritarianism if the world experienced a growth shock the size of the Great Depression.
17 财产所有权是否导致个人更愿意参与地方政治？来自财产记录和会议备忘录的证据
【题目】
Does Property Ownership Lead to Participation in Local Politics? Evidence from Property Records and Meeting Minutes
【作者】
Jesse Yoder, Stanford University
【摘要】
在整个美国历史上，房东和房客以不同的比例参与政治，但成为财产所有者是否会激励个人参与当地政治？本文将加州和德克萨斯州的契税财产记录与当地市政会议上个人评论的原始数据集结合起来，来研究财产所有权在塑造昂贵的政治行为形式中的作用，本文还记录了参加市议会的成员之间的严重不平等现象。此外，本文将财产记录与个人级别的捐款记录和行政选民档案联系起来，发现成为财产所有者会增加个人的政治活动。除了在地方选举中投票外，财产所有权激励个人参加地方市议会并给候选人捐款。这些发现说明了成为房产所有者的经历是如何导致业主在地方政治中变得更加活跃。
Homeowners and renters have participated in politics at different rates throughout American history, but does becoming a property owner motivate an individual to participate in local politics? I combine deed-level property records in California and Texas with an original dataset on individual comments in local city council meetings to study the role of property ownership in shaping costly forms of political behavior, and I document large inequalities in who participates at city council meetings. I also link property records to individual-level contribution records and administrative voter files and find that becoming a property owner increases an individual’s political activity. Over and above voting in local elections, property ownership motivates individuals to participate in local city council meetings and donate to candidates. These findings illustrate how the experience of homeownership leads property owners to become much more active in local politics.
18 政治平权行动对谁有用？来自印度计划地区的理论和证据
【题目】
Does Political Affirmative Action Work, and for Whom? Theory and Evidence on India’s Scheduled Areas
【作者】
Saad Gulzar, Stanford University
Nicholas Haas, Aarhus University
Benjamin Pasquale, Independent Scholar
【摘要】
政治平权行动会破坏还是促进发展？本文提供了对印度计划地区的第一份系统分析，该地区居住着1亿人口，当地政治办公室的份额被预留给历史上处于劣势的计划部落。最新建立起的21.7万个村庄的数据集使本文能够探索有关世界上最大的就业福利计划（国家农村就业保障计划）的实施情况的矛盾假设。作者发现，这种预留并没有造成更糟糕的后果，对目标少数群体有很大的好处，这些好处是以相对特权群体而不是其他少数群体的付出为代价的。本文还发现，其他扶贫项目有所改善，包括农村公路项目和一般公共产品。这种政治预留更紧密地将利益与每个群体的人口份额联系起来，消除了对不平等的过度补偿的担忧。与怀疑论者的期望相反，结果表明，平权行动可以重新分配政治和经济权力，而不妨碍全面发展。
Does political affirmative action undermine or promote development? We present the first systematic analysis of Scheduled Areas in India, home to 100 million citizens, where local political office is reserved for the historically disadvantaged Scheduled Tribes. A newly constructed dataset of 217,000 villages allows us to probe conflicting hypotheses on the implementation of the world’s largest workfare program, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. We find that reservations deliver no worse overall outcomes, that there are large gains for targeted minorities, and that these gains come at the cost of the relatively privileged, not other minorities. We also find improvements in other pro-poor programs, including a rural roads program and general public goods. Reservations more closely align benefits to each group’s population share, allaying concerns of overcompensation for inequalities. Contrary to the expectations of skeptics, results indicate that affirmative action can redistribute both political and economic power without hindering overall development.
19 外国威胁阴影下的专制稳定
【题目】
Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats
【作者】
Livio Di Lonardo, Bocconi University
Jessica S. Sun, University of Michigan
Scott A. Tyson, University of Rochester
【摘要】
独裁者面临着对其权力的许多威胁，其中一些来自政权内部，另一些则来自外国行为体。为了解这些威胁是如何相互作用并影响专制的存续，本文建立了一个模式，即专制领导人可以被国内反对派和外国行为体驱逐。本文重点关注外国威胁对专制领导稳定性的影响，并表明外国威胁的存在增加了独裁者保留权力的可能性。围绕以下两个案例，一是外国行为体和国内反对派的利益一致，另一个则是两者利益不一致，本文阐明了两个不同的机制。首先，当利益一致时，独裁者被迫增加国内安全，以减轻来自国际的压力。第二，当利益失调时，独裁者利用外国干预所引发的威胁来镇压国内威胁。本文同时指出，独裁者有动机在具有政治影响力的国内行为体中，培养他们对更广泛利益的敌视意识形态和观点。
Autocrats confront a number of threats to their power, some from within the regime and others from foreign actors. To understand how these threats interact and affect autocratic survival, we build a model where an autocratic leader can be ousted by a domestic opposition and a foreign actor. We concentrate on the impact that foreign threats have on the stability of autocratic leadership and show that the presence of foreign threats increases the probability an autocrat retains power. Focusing on two cases, one where a foreign actor and the domestic opposition have aligned interests and one where their interests are misaligned, we elucidate two distinct mechanisms. First, when interests are aligned, autocrats are compelled to increase domestic security to alleviate international pressure. Second, when interests are misaligned, autocrats exploit the downstream threat of foreign intervention to deter domestic threats. We also show that autocrats have incentives to cultivate ideological views hostile to broader interests among politically influential domestic actors.
20 从暴政到革命：亚里士多德论同伴政治
【题目】
From Tyrannicide to Revolution: Aristotle on the Politics of Comradeship
【作者】
Jordan Jochim, Cornell University
【摘要】
在政治学、古典希腊历史和民主理论中，集体行动的处理往往集中在不同政见的偶然性和面向公众的层面上。这篇文章转向亚里士多德，讲述了团结一致的政治行动，其规模和节奏有时被这种联系所掩盖。回顾《雅典宪法》对公元前514年的暴政和公元前508-507年的民主革命的描述，本文认为应当看到同伴关系在亚里士多德讨论这些事件中的中心地位。本文证明了亚里士多德对同伴政治的关注在其《政治学》第五卷中也是清晰的（这说明政治俱乐部(Hetaireiai)对暴政的危险性），以及亚里士多德在尼各马可伦理学（Nicomachean）和欧德莫斯伦理学（Eudemian）中也都提到了同志(Hetairoi)一词。这篇文章有助于我们理解雅典民主制度的诞生，以及作为一种缺点的同伴关系，在亚里士多德看来，是在普通的政治环境下成为一种美德的。
Treatments of collective action in political science, classical Greek history, and democratic theory often focus on the episodic and public-facing dimensions of dissent. This article turns to Aristotle for an account of solidaristic political action whose scale and tempo is sometimes obscured by such engagements. Revisiting The Athenian Constitution’s account of the tyrannicides of 514 BCE and the democratic revolution of 508/7 BCE, I argue for the centrality of comradeship to Aristotle’s discussions of these episodes. I demonstrate that Aristotle’s attention to the politics of comradeship is also legible in Politics 5—which notes the dangers political clubs (hetaireiai) pose to tyranny—as well as Aristotle’s references to comrades (hetairoi) in the Nicomachean and Eudemian Ethics. This article contributes to our understanding of the birth of Athenian democracy and how comradeship—a vice, to Aristotle, under ordinary political circumstances—becomes a virtue.
21 “楔”与“框”之间的桥梁：美国政治话语中的外联和妥协
【题目】
Bridges between Wedges and Frames: Outreach and Compromise in American Political Discourse
【作者】
Andrew Stark, University of Toronto
【摘要】
人们普遍认为楔形和框架是美国政治斗争中两个备受研究的策略，是党派武器，旨在操纵选民进行权衡取舍，从而有利于行使政治权力的人。本文的调查想要探究，是否在工作中存在着类似楔形和框架的原理，令美国政治家试图不搞两极分化，而是寻找共识，不去迎合极端，而是缓和它们。尽管在美国公众话语中这种努力似乎很少，但仍存在这样一种普遍且尚未理论化的方案，该方案使用楔形中涉及的两个问题立场来克服重新构架的不良影响，以及使用重新构架中涉及的两个价值维度来克服楔形的不良影响。本文详细阐述了这一讨论性结构，考察了它在一些美国政治辩论中的存在，表明它与其他当代规范理论框架的不同之处，以理解美国政治中的妥协。
Wedges and frames, two much-studied strategies of American political combat, are generally thought to be partisan weapons, meant to manipulate voters into making trade-offs that favor the political actor wielding them. My inquiry here explores whether there exists anything comparably schematic to wedges and frames at work in attempts by American politicians not to polarize but to find consensus, not to cater to extremes but moderate them. Despite the seeming paucity of such efforts in American public discourse, there is one such common and as-yet untheorized scheme, which uses the two issue positions involved in wedges to overcome the ill effects of reframing and the two value dimensions involved in reframing to overcome the ill effects of wedges. I elaborate this discursive structure by examining its presence in a number of American political debates, showing how it differs from other contemporary normative-theoretic frameworks for understanding compromise in American politics.
22 何时需要担心敏感性偏差：一种社会参照理论和来自30年列表实验的证据
【题目】
When to Worry about Sensitivity Bias: A Social Reference Theory and Evidence from 30 Years of List Experiments
【作者】
Graeme Blair, University of California, Los Angeles
Alexander Coppock, Yale University
Margaret Moor, Yale University
【摘要】
如果受试者因为害怕别人会审判或惩罚他们而隐瞒真相，那么对敏感问题做出的诚实回答就会受挫。由此产生的偏见通常被称为社会期望偏见，是敏感性偏见的子集。本文在此做了三点贡献：首先，本文提出了一种敏感性偏见的社会参考理论，以构建有关敏感主题的调查响应的期望。其次，本文探讨了直接和间接测量技术之间的选择所固有的偏差—方差权衡。第三，为了估计灵敏度偏差的程度，本文对迄今进行的一组已发表和未发表的列表实验(也称为项目计数技术)进行了元分析，并将结果与直接问题进行了比较。本文发现，灵敏度偏差通常小于10个百分点，并且在某些域中大约为零。
Eliciting honest answers to sensitive questions is frustrated if subjects withhold the truth for fear that others will judge or punish them. The resulting bias is commonly referred to as social desirability bias, a subset of what we label sensitivity bias. We make three contributions. First, we propose a social reference theory of sensitivity bias to structure expectations about survey responses on sensitive topics. Second, we explore the bias-variance trade-off inherent in the choice between direct and indirect measurement technologies. Third, to estimate the extent of sensitivity bias, we meta-analyze the set of published and unpublished list experiments (a.k.a., the item count technique) conducted to date and compare the results with direct questions. We find that sensitivity biases are typically smaller than 10 percentage points and in some domains are approximately zero.
23 官僚过剩的政治经济学：来自印度农村发展官员的证据
【题目】
The Political Economy of Bureaucratic Overload: Evidence from Rural Development Officials in India
【作者】
Aditya Dasgupta, University of California, Merced
Devesh Kapur, Johns Hopkins University
【摘要】
政府项目往往由于地方官僚的执行不力在当地失败。对执行不力较为突出的解释着重于官僚的寻租和攫取。本文记录了作者称之为官僚机构超负荷的另一种病态：相对于其职责，当地官僚机构通常资源严重不足。本文提出了两步理论，解释了为什么官僚主义超载不利于项目实施，以及为何政治家对地方官僚主义投资不足，并强调了选举激励的缺失。根据对印度地方农村发展官员的全国性调查，包括衡量其日常行为的考勤日记，本文提供定量证据证明：第一，资源较少的官员在执行农村发展方案方面情况较差，很可能是因为他们无法为管理任务分配足够的时间；第二，在政治执行责任不明确的行政单位中，资源提供则较少。研究结果揭示了构成地方政府能力薄弱的政治经济和官僚行为。
Government programs often fail on the ground because of poor implementation by local bureaucrats. Prominent explanations for poor implementation emphasize bureaucratic rentseeking and capture. This article documents a different pathology that we term bureaucratic overload: local bureaucrats are often heavily under-resourced relative to their responsibilities. We advance a two-step theory explaining why bureaucratic overload is detrimental to implementation as well as why politicians under-invest in local bureaucracy, emphasizing a lack of electoral incentives. Drawing on a nationwide survey of local rural development officials across India, including time-usage diaries that measure their daily behavior, we provide quantitative evidence that (i) officials with fewer resources are worse at implementing rural development programs, plausibly because they are unable to allocate enough time to managerial tasks and (ii) fewer resources are provided in administrative units where political responsibility for implementation is less clear. The findings shed light on the political economy and bureaucratic behavior underpinning weak local state capacity.
编 译：王泽萍 张笑吟
审 校：王泽萍 张笑吟
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编辑：王泽萍
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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