国际视野 | Nature Climate Change-2019第8期

Volume 9 Issue 8,

August 2019

Image:

 Femke Nijsse using CMIP5 data.  

Cover Design: 

Tulsi Voralia.

输

Decadal variability linked to climate sensitivity

Climate change assessments often focus on maximum warming levels, with less attention paid to rate of change or variability about the trend. An investigation of the CMIP5 model ensemble shows that models with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity have greater temperature variability and also have a greater chance of super warming and hiatus periods.

译：年代际变率与气候敏感性有关

气候变化评估通常关注最高变暖水平，而对变化率或趋势变化的关注较少。对CMIP5模型集合的研究表明，具有较高平衡气候敏感性的模型其温度变化也较大，并且具有更大的超级变暖和间隙期的可能性。

See Nijsse et al.

Editorial

Editorial | 26 July 2019

Benefits of trees

Forests play an important role in carbon storage and climate regulation, as well as supporting biodiversity. Restoration of lost and degraded areas is firmly back on the agenda with a recent UN announcement.

译：树的益处

森林在碳储存、气候调节以及支持生物多样性方面发挥着重要作用。通过联合国最近的声明，恢复失去及退化的地区已重新回到议程。

Comment

Comment | 22 July 2019

Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous

The publication of the IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 oC paved the way for the rise of the political rhetoric of setting a fixed deadline for decisive actions on climate change. However, the dangers of such deadline rhetoric suggest the need for the IPCC to take responsibility for its report and openly challenge the credibility of such a deadline.

Shinichiro Asayama, Rob Bellamy[…] & Mike Hulme

译：为什么设定气候截止日期是危险的

IPCC关于全球变暖1.5度特别报告的出版，为气候变化的决定性行动设置固定期限的政治言论的兴起铺平了道路。然而，这种截止日期言论的危险性表明，IPCC需要对其报告负责，并公开挑战这一截止日期的可信度。

Comment | 22 July 2019

Is adaptation success a flawed concept?

The Paris Agreement established a global goal on adaptation and invites parties to review the effectiveness of adaptation actions. However, the measurement of adaptation success remains elusive. Focusing on the capabilities of households and governments to pursue a range of adaptation futures provides a more robust foundation.

Lisa Dilling, Anjal Prakash[…] & Kerry Bowman

译：适应成功是否是一个有缺陷的概念？

“巴黎协定”确立了全球适应目标，并邀请缔约方审查适应行动的有效性。然而，适应成功的衡量仍然是难以捉摸的。关注家庭和政府的能力以寻求一系列适应性未来，这提供了更坚实的基础。

Books & Arts

Books & Arts | 26 July 2019

The political economy of solar power

译：太阳能的政治经济学

Jennifer M. Bernstein

Books & Arts | 26 July 2019

On our bookshelf

译：在架上

Adam Yeeles

Research Highlights

Research Highlight | 26 July 2019

Grassland gas

译：草地气体

Alyssa Findlay

Research Highlight | 26 July 2019

Counting tree contributions

译：树木贡献的计算

Adam Yeeles

Research Highlight | 26 July 2019

In models we trust

译：在我们信任的模型当中

Baird Langenbrunner

Research Highlight | 26 July 2019

Crops already affected

译：农作物已经受到影响

Bronwyn Wake

News & Views

News & Views | 26 July 2019

The limits of capacity building

Randomized control trials are a potentially useful research design for identifying the causal effects of capacity-building interventions in the context of environmental development. But new research suggests that short-term capacity-building projects do not increase the rate at which local water districts in Costa Rica adopt climate adaptation strategies.

Mark Lubell & Meredith T. Niles

译：能力建设的极限

随机对照试验是一种潜在有用的研究设计，用于确定环境发展背景下能力建设干预措施的因果效应。但新的研究表明，短期能力建设项目并未提高哥斯达黎加当地水域采用气候适应战略的速度。

News & Views | 22 July 2019

Tropical cyclones and heatwaves

Heatwaves increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. Research now shows that the sequence of a tropical cyclone followed by a heatwave may also occur more often, threatening power grids when air conditioning is needed most.

Ning Lin

译：热带气旋和热浪

随着全球变暖，热浪频率和强度增加。现在的研究表明，热带气旋随后是热浪的情况可能将更加频繁地发生，在最需要空调的同时威胁电网。

Perspectives

Perspective | 08 July 2019

Persecuting, protecting or ignoring biodiversity under climate change

This Perspective describes persecution, protection and ignorance archetypes for managing and monitoring species redistribution under climate change, and argues for global shared governance agreements to cope with species shifts into new geopolitical areas.

Brett R. Scheffers & Gretta Pecl

译：在气候变化下迫害、保护或忽视生物多样性

该观点描述了在气候变化下管理和监测物种重分布的迫害、保护和无知原型。并主张全球共同治理协议应对物种转变为新的地缘政治领域。

Letters

Letter | 26 July 2019

The impacts of a capacity-building workshop in a randomized adaptation project

Lack of information is a barrier to climate change adaptation, and filling the information gap is a key component of adaptation projects. However, using a randomized controlled trial, this study finds no impact of a capacity-building workshop on community water management practices in Costa Rica.

Francisco Alpízar, María Bernedo Del Carpio[…] & Ben S. Meiselman

译：能力建设研讨会对随机适应项目的影响

缺乏信息是适应气候变化的障碍，填补信息差距是适应项目的关键组成部分。然而，使用随机对照试验，本研究未发现哥斯达黎加社区水管理实践能力建设研讨会的影响。

Letter | 01 July 2019

Prospects for powering past coal

To limit warming, a rapid reduction in coal use is needed. Early retirement of coal power plants by members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which includes mainly wealthy countries that use little coal, would have a modest climate impact. Prospects for expanding the Alliance are examined.

Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko[…] & Aleh Cherp

译：为煤炭供电的前景

为了限制变暖，需要迅速减少煤炭的使用。早期煤炭联盟（PPCA）燃煤电厂的提前退役将对气候产生一定的影响，该联盟主要包括使用少量煤炭的富裕国家。并研究了扩大该联盟的前景。

Letter | 22 July 2019

Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity

Projections of temperature often focus on maximum warming levels, with variability less often considered. Investigating decadal variability in models shows those with higher equilibrium climate sensitivity also have a higher chance of super warming, and hiatus periods.

Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox[…] & Mark S. Williamson

译：年代际全球温度变化随着气候敏感性强烈增加

温度预测通常关注最大升温水平，通常不考虑气温变化。研究模型中的年代际变率表明，具有较高平衡气候敏感性的那些模型也具有更高的超级变暖和间隙期的可能。

Letter | 22 July 2019

An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard

Exposure to dangerous heat following a major tropical cyclone is possible along coastlines globally. In a warmer world, the population at risk from this combination of extreme weather could rise markedly.

T. Matthews, R. L. Wilby & C. Murphy

译：新兴的热带气旋 - 高温复合灾害

全球海岸线可能会在主要热带气旋之后暴露于危险的高温中。在一个更温暖的世界，面临极端天气组合风险的人口可能会显著上升。

Letter | 01 July 2019

Arctic greening and bird nest predation risk across tundra ecotones

Bird numbers are declining globally, with sharp decreases in alpine and Arctic regions. Increases in primary productivity in the Arctic (known as greening) are linked to increased nest predation, highlighting how changing climate conditions can affect food web dynamics.

Rolf A. Ims, John-Andre Henden[…] & Jane U. Jepsen

译：寒带交错带的北极绿化和鸟巢捕食风险

鸟类数量在全球范围内呈下降趋势，在阿尔卑斯山脉和北极地区急剧下降。北极地区初级生产力的提高（称为绿化）与增加的鸟类捕食有关，突出了气候条件的变化如何影响食物网的动态。

Letter | 01 July 2019

A simple model predicts how warming simplifies wild food webs

Observations of feeding interactions show that warming simplifies the structure of food webs in stream ecosystems. Simulations show that consumer diversity and changes in abundance drive this simplification and can reduce ecosystem stability.

Eoin J. O’Gorman, Owen L. Petchey[…] & Guy Woodward

译：一个简单的模型，预测变暖如何简化野生食物网

饲喂相互作用的观察表明，变暖简化了河流生态系统中食物网的结构。模拟表明，消费者的多样性和丰富的变化推动了这种简化，并可能降低生态系统的稳定性。

Letter | 01 July 2019

Widespread increase of boreal summer dry season length over the Congo rainforest

The length of the dry season over tropical forests is a determining factor of ecosystem health and drought risk. Hydroclimate and vegetation data show that dry season length has increased over the Congo rainforest since the 1980s, owing to both an earlier dry season onset and a delayed end.

Yan Jiang, Liming Zhou[…] & Joanna Joiner

译：刚果雨林北部夏季旱季长度普遍增加

热带森林的旱季长度是生态系统健康和干旱风险的决定因素。水文气候和植被数据显示，自20世纪80年代以来，由于旱季开始较早和结束延迟，刚果雨林旱季长度增加。

Letter | 08 July 2019

Global loss of climate connectivity in tropical forests

Physically connected habitats are required for terrestrial species to shift their liveable ranges as the tropics warm. The authors show that over half of tropical forest area is currently unable to provide such climate connectivity, and that loss of connectivity is accelerating with deforestation.

Rebecca A. Senior, Jane K. Hill & David P. Edwards

译：热带森林气候连通性的丧失

随着热带地区的变暖，陆地物种需要物理连接的栖息地才能改变其适宜居住的范围。作者表明，超过一半的热带森林面积目前无法提供这种气候连通性，并且随着森林砍伐，连通性的丧失正在加速。

Letter | 15 July 2019

Niche syndromes reveal climate-driven extinction threat to island endemic conifers

Island species are at risk as the climate changes. Island conifers are used as a model species and a combination of native and non-native occurrence data allows identification of realized, tolerable and fundamental niches; linking to island size provides an estimate of extinction risk.

Kyle C. Rosenblad, Daniel L. Perret & Dov F. Sax

译：生态位综合症揭示了气候驱动的对岛屿特有针叶树的灭绝威胁

随着气候变化，岛屿物种面临风险。岛屿针叶树被用作模型物种，天然和非天然事件数据的组合可以识别已实现的、可容忍的和基本的利基; 与岛屿大小相关联，可估算灭绝风险。

Letter | 01 July 2019

Management for network diversity speeds evolutionary adaptation to climate change

This study uses spatially explicit simulations of a simple coral reef ecosystem to show that evolutionary responses to shifting environmental conditions fundamentally change effective conservation management strategies.

Timothy E. Walsworth, Daniel E. Schindler[…] & Malin L. Pinsky

译：网络多样性管理加速了对气候变化的进化适应

本研究使用简单珊瑚礁生态系统的空间精确模拟，表明对不断变化的环境条件的进化响应，从根本上改变了有效的保护管理策略。

Letter | 08 July 2019

Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes

Mass summertime fish die-offs across 359 Wisconsin lakes are attributed to high lake temperatures during periods of extreme heat, while infectious disease and winter conditions are shown to be poor predictors. Die-offs are projected to double by 2050 and quadruple by 2100 in north temperate lakes.

Aaron Till, Andrew L. Rypel[…] & Samuel B. Fey

译：鱼类死亡与北温带湖泊的极端温度同时发生

359个威斯康星州湖泊的大量夏季鱼类死亡归因于极端高温期间的高湖温，而传染病和冬季条件与之关系不大。预计到2050年，北温带湖泊鱼类的死亡率将翻一番，到2100年将翻两番。

来源：

Nature Climate Change

说明：

小编翻译了部分题目及摘要，但专业能力有限，若有不当之处，还请读者指正！

整理、排版：TM

责任编辑：梁龙武

审核：任宇飞   王波涛

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