川普在亚洲：理想丰满，兜里没货 | 纽约时报

Trump Heads to Asia With an Ambitious Agenda but Little to Offer

WASHINGTON — President Trump departs on his first trip to Asia on Friday weakened and scandal-scarred, ready to face off against newly empowered Chinese and Japanese leaders in a region increasingly determined to set its course without American direction.

华盛顿。特朗普总统周五开启了他的首次亚洲之行，尽管时运不济，丑闻缠身，他准备与新当选的中国和日本领导人对峙，该地区日益坚定了不受美国指导的信念，要走自己的路。

The White House is framing the trip as a chance for Mr. Trump to showcase his budding personal relationships with President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan — a forceful world leader pressing his peers to negotiate fairer trade deals with the United States and to intensify the pressure on nuclear-armed North Korea.

白宫将此行视作特朗普先生的一个机会，以展示他同中国领袖和日本首相新发展的个人关系，旨在将自己打造成一个强硬的世界领袖，迫使他的伙伴同美国重新谈判更加公平的贸易协定，并加大对拥有核武器的朝鲜施压。

But Mr. Trump’s erratic statecraft, compounded by the shadow of the Russia investigation, leaves him in a questionable position to extract concessions from Mr. Xi or even allies like Japan and South Korea. The South Koreans may actually draw closer to the Chinese after settling a dispute this week over the rollout of an American antimissile system.

可特朗普的治国手段剑走偏锋，加之涉俄调查的阴影，他能否让中国甚至其盟友日本和韩国做出让步都很成问题。本周解决了因部署美国反导系统与中国发生的争端后，韩国人可能更靠近中国了。

On the eve of the trip, White House aides also have a more basic concern: putting the 71-year-old president through a grueling 11-day, five-nation marathon that they originally conceived as two separate trips before Mr. Trump opted to do it all at once.

出访前夕，白宫幕僚还有一个基本的担心：让一位71岁的总统进行折磨人的十一日、五国马拉松访问真够呛，起初他们设计分两次出访，可特朗普先生要求一次全解决。

While Mr. Trump is skipping a summit meeting of Southeast Asian leaders in the Philippines to head home a day earlier, it will still be the longest tour of Asia by any president since the elder George Bush in late 1991 — a trip that ended in Tokyo when Mr. Bush, tired and ill with the flu, collapsed after vomiting on the Japanese prime minister.

特朗普先生缺席菲律宾的东盟峰会，提前一天回国，可这仍是自1991年末老布什出访以来，所有美国总统中为时最久的亚洲之行，老布什访问的最后一站是东京，当时他很疲劳，染上流感，结果吐在日本首相身上，瘫倒在地。

In Vietnam, his aides said, Mr. Trump will articulate a new policy for Asia built on the concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” region. The idea, they acknowledge, originated with the Japanese, who have been urging the United States to bond with three other maritime democracies — Japan, Australia, and India — to contain a rising China.

他的幕僚说，特朗普先生在越南将发表建立在“自由、公开的印太”地区概念的新亚洲政策。他们承认，这一想法源自日本，日本人敦促美国和日本、澳大利亚及印度三个海洋民主国家联合起来遏制中国。

“This trip is a great opportunity to demonstrate America’s, and the Trump administration’s, commitment to the Indo-Pacific,” said the national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, using what seemed likely to become a catchphrase for the Trump administration, much as the “Asia pivot” was for the Obama administration.

“该行是展示美国及特朗普政府对印太地区做出承诺的好机会，”国家安全顾问麦克马斯特中将说，“印太地区”可能成为特朗普政府的口头禅，就像“重回亚洲”之于奥巴马政府一样。

Japanese officials planted the Indo-Pacific idea with two American counterparts: Brian H. Hook, the State Department’s policy planning director, and Matthew Pottinger, the Asia director in the National Security Council. But it dates further back, to a 19th-century American naval officer and historian, Alfred Thayer Mahan, whose writings about maritime power have long been studied in Japan but who has only recently drawn attention in the White House.

日本官员向两名美国同事推销了印太这一概念：他们是国务院政策规划主任布莱恩·H·胡克和国家安全委员会亚洲主任马修·波廷加。但这个用法起源更早，可以追溯到19世纪美国海军军官和历史学家阿尔弗雷德·塞耶·马汉，其海权论在日本广受研究，可直到最近才引起白宫的注意。

The problem is, it is unclear that Mr. Trump is bringing any initiatives to Asia to further that vision. He withdrew the United States from the most obvious regional project, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He is pushing bilateral trade deals to replace that accord, but Japan and other Asian countries are reluctant to open negotiations, while South Korea is balking at Mr. Trump’s demand to renegotiate its existing trade agreement.

问题是，特朗普是否带给亚洲任何倡议以促进那一愿景尚不清楚。他让美国退出最明显的地区计划跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）。他推动双边协定取代之，但日本和其他亚洲国家不愿开启谈判，韩国对特朗普要求重谈现有贸易协定的要求避之三舍。

“When the region looks at Trump, they see uncertainty, they see unpredictability, they see a stepping back from key agreements like TPP,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a former senior adviser on Asia to President Barack Obama. “Asian policymakers have a really hard time understanding if he has a coherent strategy.”

“该地区眼中的特朗普是不确定的，难以预测，他们认为退出TPP是一种退步，”贝拉克·奥巴马总统的前亚洲高级顾问伊文·S·梅代鲁斯说。“亚洲决策者一直想不通，他到底有没有前后连贯的战略。”

And yet, Mr. Medeiros added, “Nobody in Asia can afford to alienate the American president, as unreliable and distasteful as he and his policies may be.”

可梅代鲁斯还说，“亚洲没有谁敢疏远美国总统，无论他和他的政策多么不靠谱和不招人待见。”

Indeed, Asian leaders are sparing no fanfare for Mr. Trump. Mr. Abe has invited him to play golf in Tokyo on Sunday, reciprocating for a round at Mr. Trump’s resort in Palm Beach, Fla., in February. Mr. Xi is throwing him what officials characterize as a “state visit-plus,” with a tour of the Forbidden City and an inspection of troops.

亚洲领导人对特朗普不敢怠慢。安倍先生邀请他周日在东京打高尔夫球，回报二月特朗普佛罗里达州棕榈滩的好意。中国领导人则安排他游览紫禁城并检阅军队，官员们将此行成为“国访+”。

Mr. Trump is bringing 29 chief executives to Beijing, where the administration hopes to announce billions of dollars of new deals for American industry. But officials are playing down expectations that China will agree to any meaningful opening of its markets.

特朗普先生带着29位首席执行官到北京来，政府希望为美国企业宣布签订上百亿美元的新交易。但官员给中国会同意实质性开放其市场的期待泼了盆冷水。

In some respects, said Michael J. Green, an Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mr. Trump’s visit is more akin to a trade mission by a Dutch prime minister or a French president than a summit meeting of the leaders of two superpowers.

在某些方面，战略和国际研究中心亚洲专家迈克尔·J·格林说，特朗普之行更像荷兰首相或法国总统带去的贸易代表团，而非两个超级大国领袖的峰会。

Still, Mr. Trump plans to make the North Korea crisis the centerpiece of his stops in Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing. General McMaster said Thursday that the administration was considering putting North Korea on the government’s list of state sponsors of terrorism.

另外，特朗普先生计划将朝鲜危机列为他在东京、首尔和北京的主要议题。麦克马斯特将军周四说，政府考虑将朝鲜列入支持恐怖主义国家政府清单。

In Beijing, Mr. Trump will press Mr. Xi to do more to use China’s influence to curb Pyongyang’s behavior. Among his requests, said a person briefed by the White House, are a total cutoff of purchases of North Korean coal, closing North Korean bank accounts and sending home North Korean workers. “China is definitely doing more,” General McMaster said, “but obviously it’s not enough.”

在北京，特朗普先生将敦促中国进一步发挥影响力，遏制平壤的行为。据称他要求中国彻底停止购买朝鲜的煤，关闭朝鲜账户，将朝鲜在华工人遣送回家。“中国肯定加了把劲，”麦克马斯特将军说，“但显然还不够。”

He said Mr. Trump’s relationship with Mr. Xi, nurtured in their meeting at Mar-a-Lago in April, would help the president. But analysts noted that Mr. Xi, who emerged from the recent Communist Party congress as perhaps the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping, has less of a reason to avoid friction with Mr. Trump — either over North Korea or trade, where Mr. Trump’s protectionist instincts could antagonize Beijing.

他说特朗普先生四月同中国领导人在海湖庄园会晤，二人建立的友好关系大有助益。但分析表明，强有力的中国领袖没有理由回避与特朗普的摩擦，无论朝鲜或是贸易问题，特朗普的保护主义会引发北京的反抗。

Mr. Xi demonstrated his self-confidence by reaching out to South Korea to settle the dispute over the South’s deployment of an American antimissile system on the Korean Peninsula. At one level, that underscored China’s inability to drive a wedge between the United States and its ally. But it also complicated Mr. Trump’s efforts to build a coalition to pressure North Korea, since it more closely aligns the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, who favors diplomatic engagement over threats of military force, with China, which also favors diplomacy.

中国领导人展示了他的自信，同韩国解决了在朝鲜半岛部署美国反导系统的争议。从一个层面说，这也说明中国无法在美国和其盟友间楔入钉子。但这让特朗普试图建立联盟以施压朝鲜的努力变得更加复杂，因为更喜欢外交接触而非武力威胁的韩国总统文在寅同中国站在一起，中国也支持外交手段。

Beyond that, the rapprochement illustrated that Asian nations are finding it harder to resist China’s 49 30796 49 15289 0 0 1253 0 0:00:24 0:00:12 0:00:12 2841 49 30796 49 15289 0 0 1183 0 0:00:26 0:00:12 0:00:14 2997embrace, especially at a time when the United States seems unpredictable and unreliable. “In Southeast Asia, you see countries tilting toward China, particularly after the American withdrawal from TPP,” said Mr. Green, who served as a top Asia adviser to President George W. Bush. “They’re not switching sides, they’re just hedging.”

不仅如此，两国的亲近显示了亚洲国家很难拒斥中国，尤其美国看起来难以预料也不甚靠谱的情况下。“东南亚国家倒向了中国，尤其美国退出TPP后，”格林先生说，他曾是小布什总统的首席亚洲顾问。“他们没有更换阵营，他们只是两边下注。”

“It’s not clear what the Southeast Asian part of the trip is about,” he added, “other than Trump forming personal relationships with Southeast Asian leaders, some of whom are problematic.” One of those leaders is Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippine president who has ordered extrajudicial killings of thousands of suspected drug dealers. A senior administration official said he and Mr. Trump had a “warm rapport.”

他还说，“特朗普要建立同东南亚领导人的个人关系，尽管有些领导人问题很多，除此之外，人们尚不清楚他的东南亚之行要干些什么。”其中一位领导人是罗德里格·杜特尔特，他下令法外杀戮数千名贩毒嫌犯。政府一名高级官员表示，他和特朗普“关系很好”。

In Asia, some experts played down the significance of Mr. Trump’s Russia-related problems. “That’s domestic politics,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat now teaching at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto. “American political leaders, including Mr. Trump, are hopefully wise enough to do their job on an external front even while they have to be more scared domestically.” But others said the mushrooming investigation would deepen doubts about Mr. Trump’s reliability.

在亚洲，有些专家不提特朗普通俄问题的重要性。“那是内政，”执教于京都立命馆大学的前日本外交官宫家邦彦说。“包括特朗普在内美国政客有望明智处理外事，即便内事不决。”但也有人表示迅速加码的调查会加深对特朗普可靠性的疑虑。

“It’s a question of optics,” said Richard Javad Heydarian, a political-science professor at De La Salle University in Manila. “The shadow of impeachment will cast doubt on whether Trump can deliver on any major initiative he promises.”

“这是个由内及外的问题，”马尼拉德拉沙大学政治科学教授理查德·贾德·海达里安说。“弹劾会给特朗普能否兑现其承诺的主要倡议蒙上阴影。”

Mr. Trump’s performance over the next 11 days could alter that perception, for better or worse, which is why people inside and outside the White House are worried by a schedule that some liken to the deadly forced march of prisoners during World War II. “This is actually two trips jammed together,” said Daniel R. Russel, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs until March. “Either one would be pretty ambitious. Jammed together, they form a kind of Bataan Death March.”

特朗普接下来十一天的表现可能会改变那种认识，或改善，或恶化，这就是白宫内外的人何以担忧，有人将日程比作二战中囚犯的死亡行军。“这实际上是两次访问合一，”三月以来担任负责东亚事务助理国务卿的丹尼尔·R·拉塞尔说。“每个都志向远大，合在一起，简直堪比巴丹死亡行军。”

译注：第二次世界大战中，日军攻菲律宾、巴丹岛后，强迫美战俘徒步行军至俘虏营集中，沿途死者颇众。