津巴布韦风云 | “篡权夺位”还是“拨乱反正”？| 卫报
Robert Mugabe in detention after military takes control of Zimbabwe
Robert Mugabe remains under detention at his home in Zimbabwe more than 12 hours after the military declared on national television that it had temporarily taken control of the country to “target criminals” around the head of state. The move by the armed forces appears to have resolved a bitter battle to succeed the 93-year-old president, which had pitted his former vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, against his wife, Grace Mugabe.
军方在国家电视台宣布接管国家以清君侧，超过十二个小时后，罗伯特·穆加贝仍被软禁在津巴布韦的家中。武装力量看起来解决了谁来继承这位93岁的总统可能引发的恶战：前副总统埃默森·姆南加古瓦对垒夫人格蕾丝·穆加贝。
Mnangagwa was reported to have returned to Zimbabwe on Tuesday evening from South Africa, where he fled last week after being stripped of his office by Mugabe in an apparent attempt to clear Grace Mugabe’s path to power.
据称姆南加古瓦周二晚从南非回到津巴布韦，上周他被穆加贝解除公职后逃到南非，显然此举旨在为格蕾丝·穆加贝掌权清道。
There were unconfirmed reports that Grace was in Namibia on Wednesday on business, as a dramatic and at times confusing series of events that began on Tuesday when military convoys were seen driving through the capital took another turn.
周二发生了一系列戏剧性、时常让人迷惑不解的事件再生波折，当时人们看到军车在首都穿行，有未经确认的报道称，格蕾丝周三在纳米比亚做生意。
The military takeover comes two days after the army chief – flanked by other senior officers – warned he was prepared to “step in” to end turmoil in the ruling Zanu-PF party. It is likely to signal the departure from power of the world’s oldest leader within days, weeks or at most months.
军方接管政权两天前，总司令在几个高级军官的簇拥下发出警告，他准备“介入”，结束执政的津巴布韦非洲国家联盟爱国阵线党内的混乱，接管政权可能标志着世界上最年长的领导人在几天、几周或最多几个月内就会下台。
One high-profile opposition leader said there was “a lot of talking going on” with the army reaching out to them to discuss the formation of a transitional government after Mugabe steps down. Negotiations had been ongoing for several months with “certain people within the army”, a second senior opposition official said. The official said Mugabe would resign later this week and be replaced by Mnangagwa, with opposition leaders taking posts as vice-president and prime minister. There was no independent confirmation of his claim.
一位颇负名望的反对党领导人说，军方找到他们，现在“正在密切谈判”，讨论穆加贝下台后过渡政府的组建。另一名反对派高级官员说，与“军队里某些人”的谈判已经进行了几个月。这名官员表示穆加贝将在本周晚些时候辞职，姆南加古瓦将取而代之，反对党领导人会担任副总统和总理，对这一说法尚无独立信源加以确认。
Zimbabwe’s fragmented opposition has not publicly condemned the military move. Nelson Chamisa, the deputy head of the opposition MDC party, called for “peace, constitutionalism, democratisation, the rule of law and the sanctity of human life”.
Tendai Biti, an opposition leader, called for a “roadmap back to legitimacy”. “What is key is that a traditional authority is set up which is inclusive with the opposition and the ruling party ... We need a dialogue too with [regional organisations], the African Union and the United Nations. We can’t solve this problem on our own,” Biti said.
津巴布韦支离破碎的反对派没有公开谴责军队这一行为。反对派民主改革运动党的副主席内尔森·查米萨呼吁“和平、宪政、民主化、法治和生命不可侵犯”。另一位反对派领导人腾达伊·比提呼吁找到“回归合法性的路线图”。比提说：“关键在于老政权中有反对党，也有执政党……我们也需要和（地区机构）、非盟和联合国。我们无法自己解决问题。”
Regional power South Africa appears to be backing the takeover and sent ministers as envoys on Wednesday morning. Jacob Zuma, the president of Zimbabwe’s influential neighbour, said in a statement that he had spoken to Mugabe, who had confirmed that he was “confined” but “fine”. Zuma called for calm and a transition in line with the constitution.
地区大国南非看起来支持接管政权，周三早上还派出了特使。津巴布韦有影响力的邻国总统雅各布·祖马在一份声明中说，他同穆加贝通了话，穆加贝确认他被“拘禁”起来但人“还好”。祖马呼吁保持克制，依宪法进行过渡。
Soldiers have sealed access to parliament, government offices and courts in Harare, the capital, residents said. Access to the president’s official residence was also blocked by troops. But the city appeared calm. “Although a little bit scary, I think this is good for us. It has been a long time, we are going through a lot of hardships,” a fruit and vegetable seller in the centre of the city said.
居民称，士兵封锁了进入首都哈拉雷议会、政府机关和法院的入口。士兵还堵住了总统官邸。但城市看起来还算平静。“尽管有点让人害怕，我想对我们而言还好。这已经很长时间了，我们也经历了许多苦难，”城中心一个贩卖果蔬的人说。
“People are excited because they are ready for change,” said an official who asked not to be named because of his job. “I don’t think things will get violent because they are doing this for the people.”
“人们很激动，因为他们准备好迎接变革了，”一名担心丢了饭碗而要求不要透露姓名的官员说。“我认为事情不会走向暴力，因为他们做着一切是为了人民。”
Early on Wednesday, a military spokesman, Maj Gen S.B. Moyo, made an announcement on state television saying Mugabe and his family were “safe and sound and their security is guaranteed”. Troops seized the network’s offices late on Tuesday night. Moyo insisted – despite appearances – that a coup had not taken place, adding: “As soon as [the armed forces] are done the situation will come to normalcy.”
周三早上，军方发言人SB·默幽少将在国家电视台发表声明，称穆加贝和家人“安然无恙，安全有保障”。军人在周二晚间夺取了电视台。默幽坚称并未军方发生政变，尽管看起来就是如此，他还说：“只要军队安生了，局势就会恢复正常。”
There was no sign of any resistance to the takeover or to the arrest of a series of senior officials associated with Grace Mugabe and her G40 faction. The youth wing of the ruling Zanu-PF, which had made defiant statements directed at the military earlier in the week, appeared to condone the military action.
没有迹象显示，接管或逮捕一系列与格蕾丝·穆加贝和她的G40帮的行动遭遇任何抵抗。执政党爱国阵线的青年团本周初发表声明抗议军方，现在看来宽恕了军方行为。
Mnangagwa, a former spy chief, has strong support among many in Zimbabwe’s armed forces, and it is unclear who might oppose him in coming days. In contrast, Grace Mugabe is deeply unpopular and has few allies internally or, crucially, regionally.
前间谍头子姆南加古瓦得到津巴布韦军方的强大支持，未来几天谁会出来反对他尚不清楚。相比而言，格蕾丝·穆加贝非常不招待见，在内部，或最关键的，在非洲该地区，她没有什么盟友。
The US embassy in the capital tweeted a message citing “ongoing uncertainty”. A statement later posted by the embassy told US citizens in Zimbabwe to “shelter in place until further notice”. The British embassy said that due to the uncertain political situation British nationals should remain at home.
美国驻首都的大使馆发送推文，提及“目前形式尚不确定”。大使馆随后发布的一份声明让津巴布韦的美国公民“躲在家里等候进一步通知”。英国大使馆表示，由于政治形势不明朗，英国公民应该待在家中。
Evan Marawire, a pastor and one of Zimbabwe’s best-known activists, called on Zimbabweans to “remain calm and hopeful, alert but prayerful”. Marawire, who has been jailed and prosecuted since launching the #thisflag movement last year, which led to huge protests, did not directly condemn or condone the military takeover, but said developments were “the culmination of the work that citizens have been doing”.
牧师和津巴布韦最著名的活动人士伊文·马拉维尔呼吁津巴布韦人“保持镇定，充满希望，警惕但祈祷平安”。自从去年马拉维尔发动“这面旗帜”运动以来就一直被监禁，受到迫害，他没有直接谴责也没有宽恕军方的接管行为，但表示事态发展是“公民一直在做的事达到了高潮”。
Mugabe’s sacking of Mnangagwa came as a shock to many observers. Nicknamed “the crocodile” from his time fighting in the country’s liberation wars, he had been considered the most likely candidate to succeed Mugabe if the president decided to step down or died in office. Mnangagwa’s sacking was widely seen as a move to pave the way for Grace Mugabe to take power instead. It caused widespread discontent among Mnangagwa’s supporters and exposed deep factional divides within Zanu-PF ranks.
穆加贝解除姆南加古瓦的职务让许多观察人士大跌眼镜。在该国解放战争中得名“鳄鱼”的他一直被认为是穆加贝下台或死在任上后接班的头号人选。人们都认为姆南加古瓦被解职是穆加贝为格蕾丝·穆加贝取而代之铺路。这导致姆南加古瓦支持者的广泛不满，使爱国阵线官员内部出现严重派系分裂。
Mugabe has systematically dismissed veterans of the liberation struggle from party posts in recent years, leaving the top echelons stacked with officials who did not fight in the independence war. This exacerbated a long-running battle between an old political elite forged in the 1970s and 1980s, and a new generation that coalesced around Grace Mugabe.
穆加贝近年来大规模解职解放斗争中的老兵的党内职务，将顶层换成未在独立战争扛过枪的官员。这激化了七八十年代锻造的老政治精英同围绕在格蕾丝·穆加贝周围的年轻一代之间的长期斗争。
War veterans broke ranks with the president in 2016 and have vowed to form a broad front with the opposition to challenge his rule. Chris Mutsvangwa, the head of the war veterans’ group, told reporters in Johannesburg last week that Grace Mugabe was “a mad woman” who had won power through a “coup … by marriage certificate”. Mutsvangwa issued a statement from Johannesburg on Wednesday praising the military for carrying out “a bloodless correction of gross abuse of power” that would return Zimbabwe to “genuine democracy”.
老兵在2016年和总统一拍两散，宣称要同反对党组成战线，挑战穆加贝的统治。老兵组织领导人克里斯·穆茨万格瓦上周在约翰内斯堡对记者说，格蕾丝·穆加贝是个“疯女人”，“靠婚姻……发动政变”夺得权力。穆茨万格瓦周三在约翰内斯堡发布声明，赞扬军方“不流血就纠正了公然滥用权力的行为”，将让津巴布韦回归“真正的民主”。
Grace Mugabe’s reputation has been tarnished by a series of violent outbursts, including an alleged assault against a model she had found with her sons in a luxury apartment in Johannesburg in September. Granted diplomatic immunity after the incident, she was allowed to leave South Africa despite a police inquiry, and denies any wrongdoing.
格蕾丝·穆加贝因多次施暴而名声遭污，她被控今年九月在约翰内斯堡一家奢侈品店同几个儿子袭击模特。事件发生后她获得外交豁免，获准离开南非，尽管她接受了警察讯问，讯问期间还否认做错了事。
Reports of extravagant purchases, including property in South Africa and a Rolls-Royce, have also angered many Zimbabweans. Pictures of one of the first lady’s sons apparently pouring most of a bottle of champagne over a luxury watch worth tens of thousands of dollars in a nightclub were shared widely on social media this week.
有报道称她一掷千金，包括在南非购买地产和劳斯莱斯，这也让许多津巴布韦人感到愤怒。本周在社交媒体上疯转的照片显示，第一夫人的某个儿子在夜总会里把几乎一瓶香槟倒在价值数万美元的豪华手表上。
The crisis comes at a time when Zimbabwe faces severe economic problems. The country is struggling to pay for imports due to a shortage of dollars, which has also caused acute cash shortages. State employees, including some soldiers and policemen, have gone for months without payment of their salaries, deepening discontent with the government.
危机发生时正当津巴布韦面临严重的经济问题。该国因为没有美元储备，没钱支付进口货物，还导致了严重的现金短缺。国家公务员，包括某些士兵和警察，连续几个月拿不到工资，这也加深了他们对政府的不满情绪。